Guild Wars 2

We have always had score blow-outs – even more when there were free transfers. Looking back on MoS it has been pretty common to get more than 100000 between 1st and 2nd in each tier, especially with all the bandwagoning to what was perceived as the next big thing.

Right at the start it was the top 4 – HoD, SBI, JQ and ET, with HoD always winning T1 and JQ or ET smashing whoever they were playing in T2.

In the past servers have imploded for various reasons and it will happen again. I will be amazed if top four are SoR BG JQ and then TC at the end of the year.

Of course the opposite might happen – those top three might become MORE stacked.

woofie.5603:

Tarnished Coast is bored to tears. we have had 570 + ppt with nobody challanging us for weeks. WvW is the only reason I play and I’ve had a month without any real WvW happening.

Please fix. please

Transfer servers. Problem solved.

Mac.7249:

I logged in hoping to see some kind of effort being made to make this week un-boring again. . . .

A shame you missed some good fights tonight then. I had fun tonight with SoS putting a lot more red than blue on the map.

Luvpie.8350:

Sea of Sorrows Community site has reformed at http://www.gw2-seaofsorrows.com/. Please join us there if you are on SoS or interested in SoS.

Cheers

Luvpie

Thankyou for getting this going again!

Gellor.6497:

Hello to my new SoS friends, suck for you guys this week again and Anet just wrote a book about you guys! Seems fishy on Anet’s part

Hello to #magswag
Hello to zombie coast

Well I’ve just come on for my evening of WvW and the Tour de France. Nice to see SoS with most of EB and about +360 ppt. I love my oceanic buddies.

[edit – I have just seen we have the new SoS server forums up – I will transfer my comments over there]

I’ll add my weekly wishlist for next week’s match-up for SoS:

1. FA
2. probably Mag

Of course we’ll probably get SoR/BG.

ShinNakon.9085:

This new system is getting old. So far SoS has had 4 weeks of getting paired up with the higher tier Zerg more servers. My guess is that Anet wants us to transfer out to a higher or lower tier to get out of these weekly beatings.

I haven’t been on yet but SoS and Ebay seem to be holding DB pretty well at the moment during NA prime time, +ppt is pretty even between the three. Oceanic is SoS’s strongest time so let’s see how we go then.

Looking forward to this matchup – finally getting to face EBay, and will be a great challenge for SoS’s oceanics against DB’s late night people.

For SoS I’d like a break from the top 4 ranked servers.

1. FA (curious to see how we would go)
2. probably Mag

glittergirl.4162:

The main reason why we are not thinking about servers outside of T1 is because of the lack of coverage. We play long hours, and we do not want to be caught fighting against FA or even worse CD, Maguuma and servers who we watched this week pretty much give up within 5 hours of reset.

I’m not sure you understand they new matchup system? There is no such thing as T1 anymore. If you join SoR or JQ you WILL be fighting against FA, CD or Maguuma.

Neeho.3859:

Ques are, and remain, the best means to restrict/control wvw population. The problem is that the threshold is too high. Lower the threshold, and when people get tired of waiting to get into a battleground, they will move servers, as long as that means is available. They ruined this when they stopped free transfers.

1) Lower the thresholds (to 1/2~2/3 of what they are now)
2) Allow free transfers for 2-3 weeks
3) Watch the servers equalize

I so completely agree with this – just posted something similar in a different thread.

Looking at the CD/TC/SoS matchup at the moment (NA prime time) EB is pretty evenly split between three servers as they have equal numbers in there. But TC owns nearly all the borderlands. This is coverage not skill.

I’ll add that I reckon they should drop two of the borderlands. This would mean that it would be less coverage wars. Only the top four or five servers have the coverage to fill more than EB and one b’land.

The resulting queues for your SoRs and BGs would certainly be a way of encouraging people to other servers.

There needs to be an incentive for players to spread out from the top-ranked servers. Unless the population spreads out everything else is tinkering around the edges.

Unfortunately this type of thing is counterproductive:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/wuv/recruitment/Large-Alliance-wanting-to-transfer-NA/first#post2225049

Snowreap.5174:

airstu.2579:

Snowreap.5174:

smart math stuff

Have you done your number crunching for next week probabilities?

next week’s NA probabilities, based on current (Wednesday late afternoon) scores, attached.

-ken

You are awesome!

Except that it seems most likely matchup for SoS next week is against TC and DB

For SoS I’d like an easier week, so…

1. Maguuma
2. Ebay

although I am not sure how we compare to these guys.

LameFox.6349:

What’s RE?

And it seems I was over-optimistic about our numbers, now outmanned and getting zerged by SoS of all things. Though that’s just EB, I think I’ll give some borderlands a shot.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/wuv/recruitment/RE-Rethesis-is-looking-for-a-new-home/first#post2111238

And I agree SoS doing nice tonight

SoR is a little quieter than they were on the weekend? Didn’t see many when I was on earlier.

Just saw that RE is making the move to TC.

TitaniumDog.3054:

I’m inclined to think free transfers will only make the larger servers even larger. Now that matchups will always be random/unstable, if you want to be on a winning or competitive server then best to improve the odds by shifting to a large server. From now on whatever server you’re on there will be both competitive matchups and blowouts so better to be on the team stomping rather than the one being stomped.

So what incentive can we think of to get SoR/JQ/BG to destack and spread the love to other servers? The fact that some in TW have left SoR this week because they think the “T2” matchup is boring for them as they will likely win by 200000 points and have gone on a holiday back to JQ suggests that being on an overstacked server isn’t as attractive as it once was.

Ok they are going to decrease the size of variation sometime in next few weeks once ratings adjust to more realistic values representing relative strengths of servers.

I would favour them dialling it back at least a little right now. Looking at current ratings I would try and limit to 200 rating points either way (so SoS could play anyone between CD and TC, effectively one tier up or down if you were looking it that way)

I think scoring as well needs to be considered if they are having these types of matchups – did I read somewhere that they were introducing a system where you gained more points by TAKING an objective rather than HOLDING an objective, which would mean that, for example, SoR wouldn’t accrue massive points just by sitting on it’s upgraded garrisons (perhaps receive 50 points for taking a garrison and 10 ticks for holding).

Le Rooster.8715:

No, SoR is no.1 BG is no.2

MoS has them shifting around – SoR rating goes down, BG’s rating goes up. We are pulling rating off SoR, and BG is taking rating off DB.

But rating is a bit meaningless if SoR beats BG anyway.

I know it is early but I am gobsmacked at the gap between T1/T2 servers – I thought they would be closer in coverage.

Odaman.8359:

I’m so sorry SoS….

Why?

SoR might win this, but we are matching it with TC pretty well at the moment, and we are just entering our strongest timezone.

SoR +410 ppt
SoS +175 ppt (with SMC)
TC +110 ppt

(we’re certainly moving better than DB it seems – they waiting for their SEA people I suppose?)

UnrepentantProcrastinator.7420:

Actinotus.6410:

UnrepentantProcrastinator.7420:

Jesus, three servers ticking for 400+

I can already see the guy at ANet going, “Uh oh.”

SoS was doing that for weeks in T4 as was Ebay in T5. It’s nothing new

Things will settle down after the weekend.

The problem is these servers weren’t so unbalanced before.

SoR was better off with JQ and BG, perhaps with TC replacing JQ, but certainly not SoS. Vizunah and Elona should’ve been in the same match.

And the lower tiers…

Let’s just enjoy the matchup. SoS doing fine.

We just took Stonemist…

UnrepentantProcrastinator.7420:

Jesus, three servers ticking for 400+

I can already see the guy at ANet going, “Uh oh.”

SoS was doing that for weeks in T4 as was Ebay in T5. It’s nothing new

Things will settle down after the weekend.

Hickeroar.9734:

SoS was at the top of T4, btw. They were good enough to be top of T3 though.

Even so…this matchup is entirely unfair to them. :-(

I’d call it tough (and perhaps bad luck) rather than unfair. SoS NA people have been doing a great job so far. Let’s see how we go during oceanic time in a few hours. At the moment TC and SoS +ppt about equal.

Warlord.9074:

timidobserver.7925:

Whatever math says that SoS should be going against SOR is bad math.

Just want to say that we feel bad for sos, TC is actually a pretty good server and they are highly underrated. Its just that they are not purely a wvw server. If there servers main focous was wvw they would be T1 material. if there was another server with TCs strength in the current matchup I think TC would be doing a lot better it would take a lot of pressure off of them. Aside from that SoS much respect for you guys that I saw in wvw still fighting regardless. You guys got delt a really bad hand this time. ANET fix this please its not fair for servers like sos.

Few would disagree that if you swapped FA and SoS around this week you probably would have more “competitive” matches (i.e. all three servers have a fair chance of winning overall points score),

SoR TC FA
SoS Mag Ebay

I think tweaking the maths a little to narrow the range of servers you can face each week makes sense.

I didn’t expect to playing against SoR and TC! The RNG gods are obviously not giving SoS a week off.

Good to be having a go at my two favourite servers (apart from SoS of course).

(and hello to OCX AFS TSYM and everyone else I miss you guys)

Look at it this way – you have a 91% chance of NOT getting the same matchup again.

I’m a bit disappointed though that it seems SoS and Ebay are unlikely to face off next week.

zhonnika.1784:

Some matches I would like to see:

SoR-BG-TC / JQ-DB-FA
SoR-JQ-TC / BG-FA-DB
JQ-TC-FA / SoR-BG-DB

I don’t think there’s much chance of it happening, unless they can manage to jiggle the lock on T1, but a girl can dream.

Yes T1 (and T2) EU also had same matchups this week. My guess is the top two servers (at least) are most likely to be facing off most of the time as the ratings are so high at the moment. But then SoS played up 4 positions this week so it is really up to the RNG.

Basedgod.7328:

Crosses fingers that SoS’ Oceanics are mostly Queenslanders and from NSW, and will take a night off WvW on Wednesday, and then hope FAs oceanics are from other states.

lol no-one else in the world is going to understand that.

Snowreap.5174:

Your rating doesn’t change based on whether you win or lose, it changes based on whether you beat expectations or not. Based on the difference between your rating and your opponent’s rating, Glicko-2 calculates an ‘E’ value, which is the score you are expected to get against that opponent. Your actual score (designated ‘s’) is compared to that — if s is lower than E you will lose rating points (even if you’re still winning the match), and if s is higher than E you will gain rating points (even if you’re losing the match).

If you want to calculate exactly how many points you need in order to avoid losing rating points, you need to first calculate E. The procedure to do this is described here:
http://www.glicko.net/glicko/glicko2.pdf

The formula to calculate s has been posted by ArenaNet in the past, and it works out to:
s = ( sin((x/(x+y)-0.5)*pi) + 1 ) / 2, where x is your in-game score and y is your opponent’s in-game score.

Setting s = E, and solving for x, yields:

x = y * (0.5 + arcsin(2*E-1)/pi) / (0.5 – arcsin(2*E-1)/pi)

In other words, your score must be [(0.5 + arcsin(2*E-1)/pi) / (0.5 – arcsin(2*E-1)/pi)] times as high as your opponent’s score in order to avoid losing rating points.

You have to do this calculation separately (including the calculation of E) for each of your two opponents.

-ken

WIll we see a reduction in the overall range of rating (i.e. between SoR and ET in NA)? I would guess that when the “T1” people face off against the T2 (or lower) servers, the T1 servers ratings will reduce quite a bit as there is a 150 point gap between JQ and DB at the moment (and without doing the maths I would guess that does not represent the current relative strength of those servers). ET and FC have both risen in rating this week.

Has the answer been yes for any of the last couple of weeks? The results have become boringly predictable (which is why Anet has made this change).

1. Ebay
2. Dragonbrand (just for fun)

Well SoS doing nice at the moment Good evening oceanics.

SoS +300
TC +235
FA +160

Ratings should represent relative strength of the servers.

THe fact that CD is being competitive with YB and Kaineng suggests their ratings should be similar. At the moment CD’s rating is still 80 points behind Kaineng which is still too much.

Similarly at the start of this match SoS rating was 250 points behind FA which is way too much. Currently SoS is only 20K behind FA in score, which is about the same as BG/JQ are behind SoR yet the rating difference there is only 70.

There are three posts complaining and about 25 posts saying deal with it.

I really don’t think there’s much more to say here.

Aieo.2815:

I’ve watched SoS fall down from T1 to T4 because people are used to winning. I thought we recovered from that mindset. I guess not.

Ask yourself what will happen when you win or lose. Our NA is limited and we still fight on for the fun of it and not the score.

SoS’s NA people are awesome! I’ve become addicted to the MoS map http://mos.millenium.org/na/matchups/map/729 so I can keep track of what you guys are up to when I’m not on.

Peetee.9406:

The fact that SBI and SoS are getting blown out and still gaining points is a problem. When this system ‘stabilizes’ the top server will be around 1850 rating and the bottom server will be around 1500 rating. Making a T1 vs T8 match up very much possible.

Depends on your definition of a “blowout”. I wouldn’t call the current SoS match that.

Rating rises for SoS, SBI and CD proves the old system needed to change. The way it was before you had weeks of SoS winning against these two with no chance for SoS to move up or SBI to move down, which was frustrating for all three servers. See T5 thread (Ebay/AR/BP) who are still stuck together with the same (pre-determined almost) result – they’ve been together for two months despite Ebay’s “blowout” wins.

Honestly SoS is doing fine the people complaining are in the very small minority (like two or three people) that are posting in multiple threads so I don’t think it represents the sentiment of most on the server. We owned about half of EB and all of our borderland last night and with FA managed to squeeze TC right back. I’m OK with that.

Alcyone.8695:

I know the PPT has got to be demoralizing, but I think as a whole the WvW playerbase on SoS is better than the group we have on TC. I learned to be wary of you guys very quickly on reset night. I think it would take very little additional NA coverage for you to start kittening top tier servers to the ground.

We’ve played both FA and TC several times in the past and won and lost against them (I clearly remember one matchup early on finishing behind TC in T3 or T4). We had a long relationship winning and losing against SoR too. So honestly I can’t see why anyone on SoS is complaining about the score at the moment – maybe they are new to WvW? Most seem to be enjoying the game.

I also think SoS at the moment would probably be the most competitive against the “T2” servers especially after seeing how Mag has fared against DB. I’d be interested in a matchup say between SoS, Ebay and Mag to see how these three go.

SoS is not much different from what it has always been – win (or at least go close to it) oceanic and not as much coverage other timezones. Personally I think playing TC and FA again has been awesome and SoS has held up really well.

2

Last week’s T4 servers (SoS CD SBI) are moving up in rating by quite a lot compared to last weeks T3 servers (Kain Mag YB) even though we are in the same (or more challenging in the case of SoS) matches. This suggests the new system is working as it means that these six servers will more likely play against each other in future.

DB has increased rating so they are less likely to play against lower ranked servers (but they are more likely to cop SoR BG or JQ).

This new system needs to run for a few weeks – we need to have the T1 people face off preferably against the T2 servers, and poor old T5 broken up. You’ll see huge shifts in ratings when both of those things happen.

grasshopper.8539:

I want to play a game where you can see your hard work pay out. its a competition! That’s why I play WVW. This random matching is going to ruin WVW. What’s the point of WVW if winning means nothing?

Let’s give this a few weeks. Looking at MoS, ratings (and rankings) are moving pretty drastically which will affect likely matchups for the next week. When EBay plays a higher-rated server (which they will) their rating will go up which I understand means they are more likely to play higher-ranked servers again.

[lots of unhappy Ebay people it seems]

meep.2601:

grasshopper.8539:

Thank you ANET for ruining WVW for my server. More then haff our WVW community in Ehmry bay is not playing this week. And I’m not going to play your game ever aging.

WVW is a competition you move up by WINNING and we won!. We where suppose to move up a tier and play new servers this week and we did it on our own!! Thanks for stealing that from us!!!

as an ebay member who frequently follows goldiy around, i completely agree. we EARNED a new matchup. When i saw that we were up against BP and AR again, as in, 3 months and counting now, it took a lot of wind out of my sails in relation to this game.

keeps getting harder and harder to log on

T5 certainly missed out this round. It’s really bad luck. Let’s hope you see new faces in a week’s time.

Tanthalas.1569:

Don’t forget the score updates for those of us that work the night shift!

Best place to look is here: http://mos.millenium.org/na/matchups/map/729

Even got the map now real-time updates.

Le Rooster.8715:

LETS WIN THIS SOS

Agree. SoS needs to bring the pain tonight. FA and TC assume too much…

Shrouded.6450:

Oh god, I’m so sorry SOS. >.<

Why?

I’m super stoked about this. Poor old T5 got the same matchup again.

Zen.8497:

Snowreap.5174:

GW2 doesn’t have new servers coming online, and it currently has no way to get cross-tier matches. So we need another mechanism to supply lower servers that deserve to move up with a source of rating points they can steal.
-ken

That is working backwards artificially boosting servers points above their levels when in reality the server strength remains the same. While everyone want’s diverse matchups nobody needs blowouts. As long the servers population is uneven and scoring system rewards coverage and population there will be diverse but some ugly matches down the road. The post below says it all.

Maladon.5760:

The problem isn’t the first week of matchups. The problem will be a few weeks down the line when higher ranked servers have been bled of ratings points by being matched up with lower ranked servers. At that point it’s very possible for really ugly matches to occur.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they ran some simulations and saw that coming. Vizunah Square vs Vabbi in three weeks! Which is why they have gone back to rework this.

Aieo.2815:

FoE used to be big with a full guild and a trainee guild when ascension alliance disbanded. I wonder what happened to it.

Anyways, welcome back FoE to SoS!

I have a feeling they have been over at Eredon Terrace. Anyway it is nice to have some old faces back (and NA people too).

Snowreap.5174:

Keep in mind that a key deficiency of the ‘old’ system is that servers move to a higher tier only by carrying points up with them. Every time a server moves up, the point pool in the tiers below gets smaller, and it becomes harder for other servers to move up also.

When the game was new it was easy to move up or down based on your strength. But now, the only way to advance is to have blowouts week after week.

In chess, this problem is solved by the constant influx of new players with ‘provisional’ ratings (direct injection of new points) and by the structure of rated matches that allows lower rated players to play blowout matches against much higher rated opponents (cross-tier matches).

GW2 doesn’t have new servers coming online, and it currently has no way to get cross-tier matches. So we need another mechanism to supply lower servers that deserve to move up with a source of rating points they can steal.

-ken

My guess is they are going to tweak this system a little. Even though it may only be 0.02% for say a T4 SoS to meet a T8 Eredon Terrace, I think completely eliminating the possibility of a matchup like that makes sense (and would lessen the fear coming from some). Looking at current ranking points on MoS I would limit it to +/- 300 ranking points so, for example, next week SoS could play against anyone between TC and SBI, and SoR could only play servers down to FA.

Dayra.7405:

Niim.9260:

The issue with this entire thread is that there is two camps of people. Those that will not be impacted by a blowout match and thus the change of scenery and less stagnation of the matches is more important then if the matches are balanced.

I only wonder were the “old system”-faction got the believe that the old system favor balanced matches. It did a while, as long as it allowed switches in the tiers, but today it only guarantees stagnation! It does not care et al on balance. Matches stagnate till blow-out.

Agree with this. There are a couple of tiers that have had blowout scores of close to 100K between 1st and second for weeks (including T1 EU) with servers unable to shift between tiers despite these big scores.