An other thread where math is attempting to restrain randomization, omg lol
Math doesn’t restrain randomization, it just describes it. So there’s no reason to “omg lol”.
I appreciate your effort to suggest a profitable way to use Mystic Forge. Sadly, all your maths and theory falls when you truly attempt to play with it. 80 20 is a pure senseless theory, absolutely not realistic. IF you truly are a gambler, you would know play casinos leads yourself to nothing, and that magic 23 is not coming back, as much you can attempt to type how many times that kitten number is back, so you can put money when is coming
It’s clear that you don’t know what Expected Value is, which is the only way to calculate the possible profit/loss in the long term when approaching to any game that has randomness.
You cite casino games, which have clearly a negative EV for the player (and thus a positive one for the casino, without rake/commission these games are all a zero sum game), because the payout is well defined and in favour of the casino.
In the case that OP posted about, the pay out is not defined by the casino (A.net), A.net itself just defined the probabilities (which can be inferred with a good sample of trials, let’s say at least 10k trials, even if 10k isn’t obv a huge sample, but I don’t think the error will be more than 5%), the EV of this game is defined by these probabilites and the actual prices on the TP, so there can be a profit margin in the long term, if the prices are such and they don’t slide down for the higher demanded items that can be obtained by the MF.
I’m a professional gambler too (poker player here), and I’m always baffled by all the ignorance surrounding a simple math concept like EV. And, even if I shouldn’t, I’m always happy to see that someone, like OP, uses it in a smart way and understands it.
@OP: what is your sample size to calculate the actual probs to get a green item instead of a blue item out of the MF? The real problem to me lies in the fact that since you have to get very few specific items to raise the EV on the positive side, and to just calculate it you need a lot of trials, even if you reach the conclusion that you can have a positive EV, I dunno if you can ever overcome the initial cost of the trials themselves.
Of course flipping is market manipulation, you artificially inflate prices to make profit on the expense of players who do not know the proper price level of the items. If flipping wasn’t market manipulation, it wouldn’t work because you would never make any profit.
It isn’t market manipulation. I have the same infos on prices as the next guy, a perfect market would put all the items in the TP with highest buying price = 0.85 * lower selling price, but they’re not all showing this gap (which is the Market Maker gap, where MM=Anet with its commission on selling items), so it must mean that not all players in the market are savvy enough to make the right calculations. And this ofc goes way beyond the intersection point of supply-demand curves.
Heck, there’re still a LOT of selling orders equal to vendor price + 1c. So, by the same logic, we should state that there’re people who are deflating intentionally the prices. No, they’re just really BAD at math.
I dare to say that Dominar Rygel didn’t teach you enough.
The point is that saying, like OP did, “in 6 times I got 2 rare Halloween drops” and using this as proof that other people complaining about drop rates from the MK dng shouldn’t do that is showing, at best, profound ignorance on the matter of probability.
I’ve run the MK dng about 10 times myself, and got 2 exotics, and since I don’t know the exact loot tables of the final chest, I can’t say if I’ve been extremely lucky or the contrary. For OP, though, it’s perfectly normal.
This thread has the usefulness of a round kick in the teeth.
Clock Tower is a BLAST.
Leave it as it is, I completed it after about 1 hour of trials and errors, with an Asura surrounded by stinky Charrs and obese Norns, I didn’t see my character for quite some time during the puzzle, but then again, I did it.
Less whine, more jumps guys! After beating it, you’ll find yourself shouting KITTEN, YEAH! Like it was in the old days, when we went to school jumping uphill, in boiling lava. (cit.)
No tonic can be crafted by artificers at this time. The ones on the tp are drops from dungeons usually and none of them are mystery tonics. The only mystery tonics in the game at this time are the account bound ones. So no get rich for artificers ( I am a 400 artificer btw).
You’re wrong, the Artificer at 400 can craft the Mystery Tonics, it’s just that they’re account bound the same as the BLC ones.
1 Water + 1 Crystalline Dust + 1 Vicious Fang + 1 Vicious Claw = 5 Mystery Tonics, I just tried the recipe now.
To get a lot of bags, you need to be in a zerg, or something similar. On my server, FS, there’s often a mini-zerg of people camping among 3 doors spawn points in Gendarran Fields, going back and forth at/from these spawn points.
Fact is, if anyone near you opens the door and drops a bag, it’ll be available to you too.
You need 6 pages, not 5.
(edited by Galandil.9641)
@Galandil.9641: What I tried to say is, that the chance is ‘reset’ each hit.
Hit one you have a 25% chance
Hit two you have a 25% chance
Hit three you have a 25% chance, etc.
You might proc it 4 times in a row, you might proc it only once in 10 hits (though it’s unlikely)
That way you have two times, 25% chance to proc it, which still doesn’t make 50% chance, but indeed, the numer you provided.
It’s been a while since I made such calculations, so I didn’t take my chances not wanting to provide false information.
You probably just misunderstood what I was trying to say
Ok, I’m sorry if I’ve been so harsh, lately I find a lot of posts extremely random and without math or logical proof, so I’ve become really jumpy and pushy.
@ Oxygen: the SC for Mug must be between 1.4838 and 1.46, I need some more tests to get a more precise number, as soon as I’ll get it I’ll post it in my thread about weapons SCs.
Just read his post in this thread, he gave the formulas for bleeding and poison and how they’re affected by the Cond Dmg stat.
Ok, the forum is clogged with alot of whines about BS overpowered, “he killed me pressing 2 buttons”, etc.
But, at least 99% of the times, these whines relies on the actual skill that made the damage, and never in understanding what could be the problem that particular skill… if ever there was a problem with a particular skill.
Imo, the problem is NOT in the burst dmg of BS (or any other single skill), but is in how are handled the “+X% on damage” boosts given by skills/traits.
Let’s take this simple build for example: http://gw2skills.net/editor/?fYAQJAoYlUmKOHfS6E/5Ex2jdKUe6VgsaPoZLhJA;ToAg0CnowxgjAHLOOck4MKYSA
DO NOT COMMENT ABOUT THE BUILD, I took it just to make the example.
Regarding the “+X% damage”, we have:
- Signet of Sup Force: +5% damage;
- Dagger Training: +5% damage;
- Exposed Weakness: +10% dmg if target is under a condition;
- First Strikes: +10% dmg if ini is 6 or higher;
- Executioner: +20% dmg if target has <50% of total HPs;
- Assassin Signet: +50% if activated.
Now, one would think that all these damage modifiers would add up, and then they’d be applied to the actual “base dmg” (i.e. Power*Weapon Damage*Skill Coefficient/Armor) so, always following the example, we’d get a total of +110% dmg if all are active at the same time. That one, however, would be completely wrong!
The way that game uses these dmg modifiers is this: all “fixed” modifiers are summed up (in our case, only Dagger Training and Sigil of Sup Force, +10%), then all the other conditional modifiers are applied multiplicating every modifier with the others. In our example, we would get: 1.1*1.1*1.1*1.2*1.5=2.3958 -> +139.58%, almost 30% more than the “summed up” modifiers.
Of course, this effect is amplified in case we inflict a crit. The Crit Dmg of this build is 38, so a critical multiplies the actual damage by 1.88:
- In the first case, with +110% damage, we’d get 2.1*1.88=3.948 -> +294.8% total modifier to the base dmg;
- In the second case, with +139.58% dmg, we’d get 2.3958*1.88=4.504104 -> +350.5% total modifier to base dmg.
If a player uses BS, with Power at 2140 and Wpn Dmg 981 (the max for dagger), against a target with 2200 Armor, his base damage would be 2140*981*2.405/2200 = 2295.
In the 1st case, he’d get a total dmg of 2295 * 2.1 = 4820, with crit 9062.
In the 2nd case, he’d get 2295 * 2.3958 = 5498, with crit 10336 (14% more than the 1st case).
If we put in the tray even C&D, we have 2140*981*1.624/2200 = 1550 for base dmg. Then:
1) 1550 * 2.1 = 3255, with crit 6119;
2) 1550 * 2.3958 = 3713, with crit 6980.
And don’t forget that C&D applies 3 stack of Vuln., which are included (summed) to the base +10% for Dagger Training and Sup Sigil of Force, so we get a dmg modifier of 1.13*1.1*1.1*1.2*1.5 = 2.46114 (so, you see, that +3% from Vulnerability has become a +6.534% coupled to the other modifiers!), so BS now inflicts:
1) 2295 * 2.13 = 4888, with crit 9190;
2) 2295 * 2.46114 = 5648, with crit 10618.
The grand total from these 2 skills is:
1) 15309
2) 17598 (and this is how now the dmg mods work)
Someone could say that these figures are too high the same, and I can, to a certain degree, agree with him, but the problem about this combo is NOT in Backstab, but in the too high SC of C&D (seriously, a skill that stealths and inflicts 3 stacks of Vuln has a SC of 1.624?).
So, imo, these are the solutions atm:
1) All dmg modifiers should add up no matter what, and then they’d be applied to the base damage. This would give us two things: a) less damage overall from stacking modifiers and b) less headache when studying builds.
2) Tone down the SC of C&D, and bring up again the SCs of the other weapons which, atm, are laughable, damage inflicted wise, to the Daggers (both main and off hand).
Weapon Dmg just determines your base dmg. The only coefficient there is, is what determines your base dmg. Like Heartseeker base dmg = 110% Weapon Dmg, Backstab base dmg = 160% Weapon Dmg.
Wait, are you talking about 110% Weapon Dmg which means, MATHEMATIC wise, Weapon Dmg x 1.1? So is 1.1 not a coefficient? Tied to Heartseeker? Which is a skill? So it’s a SKILL COEFFICIENT?
I’m amused, please go on.
Have you ever been curious about the Skill Coefficients (SC from now on) of the Thief weapons?
I have been, so I made some tests to get those SC. The tests have been done using 3 different values of Power and 2 different values of final bonus damage, in order to get 6 values of damage and then making an average that fitted the most the usual formula about damage.
So, keep in mind that there can be some errors for the 3rd decimal digit, and even in this case the error would be in the order of +/-1 HP in respect of the actual damage inflicted (and since minimum HPs pools start at more than 10K, the error is in the order of the 0.01%).
The actual Power values were: 2286 – 2464 – 2639.
The actual damage increase were 5% and 15%.
Target armor was 2600 (Heavy Golem in the Mists).
When a skill makes multiple strikes, I added xN, with N number of strikes and the SC is relative to a single strike. For autoattack chains, (1-1) means the first skill in the chain, and so on with (1-2) and (1-3).
The legend is as follows: Skill name – Coefficient – Executing time – DPS (where applicable)
Many thanks to eduardo.4675 for retrieving all the executing times.
So, let’s see the SC of the various skills:
DAGGER
1-2-4-5 Skills
Double Strike (1-1): 0.2775 x2
Wild Strike (1-2) – Lotus Strike (1-3): 0.847
Autoattack chain: 2.249 – 2s – 1.1245
Stealthed – Backstab (front): 1.202 – 0s – N/D
Stealthed – Backstab (back): 2.405 – 0s – N/D
Heartseeker: 1 (>50%)/1.502 (25%-50%)/2.005 (<25%) – 0.75s – 1.33 (>50%)/2 (25%-50%)/2.67(<25%)
Dancing Dagger: 1.048 (per hit) – 0.5s – 2.096 (per hit)
Cloak & Dagger: 1.624 – 0.5s – 3.248
Dual Skills
Dagger off-hand – Death Blossom: 0.206 x3 – 0.75s – 0.824
Pistol off-hand – Shadow Shot: 1.378 – 0.25s or more (depends on distance of target, close targets almost 0s to hit) – 5.512
PISTOL
1-2-4-5 Skills
Vital Shot: 0.416 – 0.75s – 0.555
Stealthed – Sneak Attack: 0.249 x5 – 1s – 1.245
Body Shot: 0.547 – 1s – 0.547
Headshot: 0.26 – 0s – N/D
Black Powder: 0.285 – 0.75s – 0.38
Dual Skills
Dagger off-hand – Shadow Strike: 0.314 (Dagger strike)/1.251 (Pistol shot) – 0.5s – 3.13
Pistol off-hand – Unload: 0.248 x8 – 2s – 0.992
SWORD
1-2 Skills
Slice (1-1) – Slash (1-2): 0.801
Crippling Strike (1-3): 1.3
Autoattack chain: 2.902 – 2.4s – 1.209
Stealthed – Tactical Strike: 0.748 – 1s – 0.748
Infiltrator’s Strike: 0.748 – 0s+travel time (slightly affected by distance) – N/D
Dual Skills
Dagger off-hand – Flanking Strike: 0.76 (Dagger strike)/1.5 (Sword Strike) – 1.25 – 1.808
Pistol off-hand – Pistol Whip: 0.337 (Pistol shot)/0.372 x8 (Sword strikes) – 2.75s – 1.205
SHORTBOW
1-2-3-4-5 Skills
Trick Shot: 0.523 – 0.8s – 0.65375
Stealthed – Surprise Shot: 0.571 – 0.8s – 0.71375
Cluster Bomb: 1.385 – 0.5s+travel time – N/D
Cluster Bomb – Detonate: 0.475 each fragment
Disabling Shot: 0.523 – 0.5s – 1.046
Choking Gas: 0 – 0.5s+travel time (much less travel time than Cluster bomb) – N/D
Infiltrator Arrow: 0 – 0s+travel time (less than Cluster Bomb or Chocking Gas) – N/D
I hope you find this numbers useful, I’ll do in the future, eventually, the Harpoon/Spear ones.
P.S.: Oddly enough, the SCs of Trick Shot and Disabling Shot are the same, even though the tooltips on the skills indicate a different “base” damage. Bug maybe?
Edit: Added execution time, DPS and a couple of missing skills.
(edited by Galandil.9641)
(edited by Galandil.9641)
I’m sorry, I don’t want to sound like a smartass at all.
But (even if I’m not an english native speaker), I just read it as a self condition removal. Sure, the wording would be perfect just by adding “on yourself”, but I’d expect a “cure whatever for each nearby ally” to be always a self cure, based on how many allies I have in the nearby range. If not, I’d expect a “cure whatever from/to/on each nearby ally”.
That’s just how I see/read it, without any intention of being harsh.
To me, the problem is not in the fact that a regular PvPer doesn’t get the new mothakitten gear with better stats than the other. It’s never been the philosophy of A.Net, and anyone whining about it should have informed himself before buying GW2.
The actual problem is the fact that, apart from (random) new skins, and the eventual title, you get nothing for playing PvP.
Someone pointed out that it should be enough to have fun while doing it. Right. But then, I think a little back to GW1, and looking at the two main PvP experiences you got there:
- The GvGs were always the same thing: kill the enemy Lord, with the only difference being in the maps available. But, you got a reward, namely in the ladder system. The actual tPvP system is similar to GvG in structure (same objective, different maps, albeit there’re still very few maps to play in, not giving a lot of variety), but we lack the ladder system that provided, in GW1, the reward.
- The Tomb, or HoH thereafter: no ladder at all, the only reward was your rank to display to others. But it had different gameplays in every round, with different objectives while you progressed in the single tournament. tPvP gives the same reward as Tomb/HoH (displayed rank), but no variety in the single steps of the tournament.
I’m sure (hope?) that A.Net has a plan to expand a lot the competitive PvP experience, adding new modes “just for ranks” and a new mode (or even the same one that we can actually play) with a ladder, thus giving competitive players a reason to play and “show off” to friends and opponents.
It was fun in GW1 when, a couple times, I and my guildies were facing in GvG the War Machines (back in the oooold days), the first thought was “we’re doomed”. Yes, it was fun knowing that you had to fight one of the best guild in GW1, it gave you a higher purpose to perform better because you’re against the “numbers 1”. But we needed the ladder system to experience this thrill.
So please A.Net, hurry and go live with a ladder system and/or different modes for PvP aside the domination one.
(edited by Galandil.9641)
My point is that there are lot off ppl who go to jumping puzzles especialy at ridiculous hours like 3am-5am just to avoid of being ganked to loot the badges because they like the skin of the gear. They dont go there to do PVP but those places are always being camped. And they just wanna make those gankers feel how it is to when they try to achieve somethink and they dont get it. Just like those ppl who are like 10sec away from chest and they get ganked. I call it revenge
No, it’s called CHEATING (or EXPLOITING).
The game rules allow people to camp at JPs, just bring some more friends and wipe the campers. Vanishing in thin air by pressing ALT+F4, thus preventing people from getting a reward from killing you and preventing the cost of repair is NOT in the rules, so it’s cheating.
I’d like to see all these exploiters banned from the game. Really.
Its actualy best way to avoid of being ganked especialy in 3W jumping puzzles. I believe u all know how its feel to be ganked by bunch of other ppl. Now u know how its feel when group of, lets say 5 ppl chase 1 person and he just log off
What’s your point?
@Sebrent: I can see your point. However, to be more precise with the math, start with the fact (that you didn’t mention) that Backstab has a skill coefficient of 2.715 (given or taken some decimals). And the amount of damage inflicted varies alot due to armor of the target, power of the thief, etc.
For example, the minimum armor that a player can have is 1836 (916 base tough + 920 total from light armor). Let’s factor all the traits that you said, add a sigil of force (5%) and a fully stacked sigil of bloodlust (250 to power).
We arrive at 2869 Power (I considered the 30/30/0/0/10 traits (916+300=1216), plus Berserker’s Amulet (923), Runes of Divinity (60), full stacked bloodlust (+250), plus Venomous Strength and Signet of Power with 2 signets activated, for +420 Power given by Might). So, the maximum amount of base damage inflicted, taking the upper limit of the dagger damage (981) is:
2869*981*2.715/1836 = 4162
Now let’s add all the dmg increments: Flank Strike +5%, Executioner +20%, Expos. Weak. +10%, Dagger Training +5%, First Strike +10%, Sigil of Force +5%, Assassin’s Signet +50%, 3 Stacks of vulnerability after C&D +3% -> +108%
Damage becomes 8657.
If we crit, we should add +50+62=+112% damage, and we arrive at 18353.
Maybe your guildy just got more vulnerability on his target and/or more might given by an ally to reach the 19k he inflicted, but we all get the picture, it’s a lot of damage.
For example, if we do all the calcs again for a target with 2200 Armor we get:
2869*981*2.715/2200= 3473, and adding the damage from traits/whatever and crit we get a total of 16374.
Now, the problem for the thief is that he must give back something in order to do all this damage, mostly Armor (2040) and HPs (15655), which is the base idea around the Thief class: to do a lot of damage but to be not capable of sustaining a lot of damage himself (more or less pronounced if we spec for glass cannon or not).
However, I’m sure that we’ll see some nerf to backstab and extreme glass cannon builds in the future, and I hope we’ll get in return some buff to other kind of builds (remove that kitten 15% nerf to PW pls!).
I made some tests today to check what happened in terms of sheer damage numbers to the S/P set after the PW nerf.
I made calculations only for the Autoattack chain and for Pistol Whip, since they’re the 2 skills that do the real damage with the S/P set.
First of all, the skill coefficients (bear in mind that the sc aren’t precise, I didn’t have the time nor the will to interpolate the exact number making a lot of data gathering ):
- Autoattack: 0.795 – 0.795 – 1.29
- Pistol Whip: 0.336 (Pistol) – 0.371 (Sword single swing).
Now, let’s say that we don’t have any traits and/or buffs to increase our damage, and let’s not consider any critical hit at all.
The formula to calculate the damage done on a target is this:
(Power * Weapon Damage * Skill Coefficient) / Armor
So we have:
- Autoattack: ((Power * Wpn Dmg) / Armor ) * (0.795*2+1.29)= 2.88 * Power * Wpn Dmg / Armor
- PW: (0.336 + 8*0.371) * Power * Wpn Dmg / Armor = 3.304 * Power * Wpn Dmg / Armor
Let’s take some numbers to make an example. Power 1785, Wpn Dmg 1000 (taking the upper limit of the sword dmg), Armor 2000. The overall value of Power * Wpn Dmg / Armor with these values is:
1785 * 1000 / 2000 = 1785 / 2 = 892.5
If we put this number in the above formulaes we get these results:
- Autoattack: 892.5 * 2.88 = 2570.4
- PW: 892.5 * 3.304 = 2948.82
Now, it seems that PW, even after nerf, makes a little bit more damage than the autoattack chain. But here’s the problem: if I checked the durations right, the Autoattack Chain has a total “casting time” of 2,5s, while PW has a total of 3s.
So, if we go to check the DPS:
- Autoattack: 2570.4 / 2.5 = 1028.16
- PW: 2948.82 / 3 = 982.94
Thus, now, we have that PW has a lower DPS than the Autoattack chain. Before the nerf, if we consider the -15% nerf, PW had a DPS of 1156.4.
Moreover, when we factor in the possibility of critical hits, we have to remember that the game rolls the critical chance for every single hit and not per single skill. This means that we have, with PW, a much higher interval in its dmg range (but with less variance) than the one we have with the Autoattack.
For example, let’s say now that we have 50% of crit chance and no crit dmg (just for the sake of calculations ofc).
With PW, you can get no crits at all, thus doing the damage that I wrote before (with a probability of 0.5^9 = about 0.2%), or we can make (always with a prob. of 0,2%) all crits, thus raising the overall damage to 2948.82 * 1.5 = 4423.23. You should bear in mind however that the probability to get exactly the average dmg between these extremes is much higher in PW, due to the fact that we have 9 “rolls” instead of only 3 in the Autoattack Chain.
For the latter, we have no crits (with a prob. of 0.5 ^ 3 = 12,5%), and all crits, with the same prob., that deal a total of 3855.6.
However, the DPS remains higher for the Autoattack Chain compared to PW.
To these numbers, you can factor in any damage increase given by traits like Executioner, or sigils, etc., but the overall picture remains the same.
Again, I’m not sure 100% about the casting time duration of PW and Autoattack, I tried the best I could with a chronograph and it seemed to me that the respective durations were 3s and 2.5s. If anyone has better proof of this, please tell it so we can rework the DPS numbers.
But, at the moment, it seems that with S/P it’s better to use Haste in conjuction with the Autoattack than with PW in terms of pure damage.
To me, it’s a sad, sad day.