Guild Wars 2

Vashoom.8512:

Here are some facts, which (I hope) may help diffuse the almost transparent attempt to inflate prices for personal gain by making this post.

Generally speaking, most people don’t like “random” boons, this is why engineer is the least played class, this is according to the majority of replies from a post I made in the engineer forum a while ago asking why people favour this class the least. Some people also stated in that post this is why they don’t like using a staff on their mesmer.
People prefer to control their abilities to maximize performance, not bet on an RNG.

Losing 3% damage or 5% crit (force/accuracy sigil) for a random boon, of which you may already have in combat from other players, or your own skills, is not likely going to be favourable for the majority player base.

The only chance I can see this sigil would be useful is if the duration from each boon is so long that you can stack up all boons from chain killing mobs and keep up an array of useful boons that you would otherwise not be able to get, but I highly doubt anet would develop such an OP sigil for obvious balance reasons.

So no, investing in these items will not likely yield you a profit unless people believe the statements made in here and buy them, pushing up the prices.

Just look at all the “on kill” sigils, food, runes etc that are for sale, they are the cheapest and least liked items in gw2, because people want the stats before combat, to apply in the combat, more than a bonus to your next kill in short concession.

I agree, I have a level 80 mesmer, it has a signet that gives random boon. it is not that useful

time to buy it then

They should give it to everyone, and not just legendary holders.

LOL, sell it to Mesmer! sigh… i am at work

Smooth Penguin.5294:

They all went up in price due to speculation. But with clear news on what each type of mat is doing, I expect prices to jump even more.

And so much for selling Exotics on the TP. I’ll be salvaging them all for Dark Matter. That alone could make Ecto prices wacky for a little while.

Side note – the updates to the runes are interesting too.

Or speculation overshot the equilibrium price. you never know.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

This update is HUGE for us who watch the TP like it’s a growing child. I’m almost crying because my boss won’t let me go home to play video games.

Ectos, Crystalline, mats of all flavors are gonna go crazy. Though I’m glad I didn’t waste all my Karma, since I’ll need them all for Obsidian Shards.

those already went up in price… i guess you can push it up a bit more… its the weekend afterall………..

heh, good thing I waited

GW1 one year mark was superior. I was excited for faction, and it was excellent and different. New continent to explore, new classes and a new story campaign.

GW2: Living story about a crazy woman with pirates with a goal of doing what exactly? Just cause annoyance because of she is crazy? (The living stories are so SHALLOW)

Gele.2048:

i cant play game for cosmetics only i need gear progresion the combat is shallow as it is i cant do dungeon for skins ill go play barby game if i like that :P

so you want a carrot dangle infront of you

MikaHR.1978:

Hell Avenger.7021:

MikaHR.1978:

Raine.1394:

Yaki.9563:

MikaHR.1978:

Gele.2048:

o grow up u had 1 year whit exotic only what do you like to play this game 10 years whit the gear from day 1 that u made ? no progres at all in gear ? shallow thing for mmo dont u think

Its fascinating whom ANet caters to.

I’m guessing they cater to MMO players. Sorry GW1 players, no gearing up in the first 3 months of the game then doing pointless fluff content for the next 10 years.

As I see we still have people who don’t understand vertical progression, I’ll play.

Everything you need to know about VP can be found in the words that make up the concept: Vertical, the power level of the game increases; Progression, it continually increases over time.

And, VP can be described by an integer series: 1,2,3,4,5,…n where each number represents a new tier of ever more powerful gear. Upon inspection we can see that the participation in the process is mandatory, not optional. It makes no difference whether the difference between 1 & 2 is material. Vertical progression does not progress by stopping. It is self evident that eventually you will not be able to play the game if you are not grinding it out on the treadmill.

Ever wonder why they call it a gear treadmill? Here’s why: everyones at power X and new gear with more power drops, let’s call it power level Y. Everyone jumps on the treadmill. When they get off everyone’s at power level Y. Meanwhile, the environment has attained power level Y as well. Before and after the treadmill ride there is no relative difference between player and player (if they rode the treadmill and they really had no choice) or player and environment. In reality they have gone nowhere; they’ve just been exercised on a non-optional treadmill.

That’s all well and good for hamsters, but players in 2013 are realizing more and more that the emperor of treadmills has no clothes. We want more from our gaming than a mandatory treadmill ride. Vertical progression is an old answer to the question of making an engaging MMO. We’re ready for a new kind of MMO.

Question is what happens when this self proclaimed “MMO players” get their ascended set.

ANet caved in not even 3 months after release. How long will it take to cave in after ascended. My prediction: they already plan for next tier.

The only way to avoid it will be legendary tier. And we know fastest way to legendary.

While if they do that, I am done with this game. Very simple.

How do you suppose they will keep those who want vertical progession happy after ascended. And they said themselves ascended armor will be here before end of the year.

The only thing they did say is that we will not see new tier this year.

I am fine if they stayed at ascended, but I refuse to be baited like a donkey.

How do you guys click so fast? wait… a macro??

MikaHR.1978:

Raine.1394:

Yaki.9563:

MikaHR.1978:

Gele.2048:

o grow up u had 1 year whit exotic only what do you like to play this game 10 years whit the gear from day 1 that u made ? no progres at all in gear ? shallow thing for mmo dont u think

Its fascinating whom ANet caters to.

I’m guessing they cater to MMO players. Sorry GW1 players, no gearing up in the first 3 months of the game then doing pointless fluff content for the next 10 years.

As I see we still have people who don’t understand vertical progression, I’ll play.

Everything you need to know about VP can be found in the words that make up the concept: Vertical, the power level of the game increases; Progression, it continually increases over time.

And, VP can be described by an integer series: 1,2,3,4,5,…n where each number represents a new tier of ever more powerful gear. Upon inspection we can see that the participation in the process is mandatory, not optional. It makes no difference whether the difference between 1 & 2 is material. Vertical progression does not progress by stopping. It is self evident that eventually you will not be able to play the game if you are not grinding it out on the treadmill.

Ever wonder why they call it a gear treadmill? Here’s why: everyones at power X and new gear with more power drops, let’s call it power level Y. Everyone jumps on the treadmill. When they get off everyone’s at power level Y. Meanwhile, the environment has attained power level Y as well. Before and after the treadmill ride there is no relative difference between player and player (if they rode the treadmill and they really had no choice) or player and environment. In reality they have gone nowhere; they’ve just been exercised on a non-optional treadmill.

That’s all well and good for hamsters, but players in 2013 are realizing more and more that the emperor of treadmills has no clothes. We want more from our gaming than a mandatory treadmill ride. Vertical progression is an old answer to the question of making an engaging MMO. We’re ready for a new kind of MMO.

Question is what happens when this self proclaimed “MMO players” get their ascended set.

ANet caved in not even 3 months after release. How long will it take to cave in after ascended. My prediction: they already plan for next tier.

The only way to avoid it will be legendary tier. And we know fastest way to legendary.

While if they do that, I am done with this game. Very simple.

Raine.1394:

Yaki.9563:

MikaHR.1978:

Gele.2048:

o grow up u had 1 year whit exotic only what do you like to play this game 10 years whit the gear from day 1 that u made ? no progres at all in gear ? shallow thing for mmo dont u think

Its fascinating whom ANet caters to.

I’m guessing they cater to MMO players. Sorry GW1 players, no gearing up in the first 3 months of the game then doing pointless fluff content for the next 10 years.

As I see we still have people who don’t understand vertical progression, I’ll play.

Everything you need to know about VP can be found in the words that make up the concept: Vertical, the power level of the game increases; Progression, it continually increases over time.

And, VP can be described by an integer series: 1,2,3,4,5,…n where each number represents a new tier of ever more powerful gear. Upon inspection we can see that the participation in the process is mandatory, not optional. It makes no difference whether the difference between 1 & 2 is material. Vertical progression does not progress by stopping. It is self evident that eventually you will not be able to play the game if you are not grinding it out on the treadmill.

Ever wonder why they call it a gear treadmill? Here’s why: everyones at power X and new gear with more power drops, let’s call it power level Y. Everyone jumps on the treadmill. When they get off everyone’s at power level Y. Meanwhile, the environment has attained power level Y as well. Before and after the treadmill ride there is no relative difference between player and player (if they rode the treadmill and they really had no choice) or player and environment. In reality they have gone nowhere; they’ve just been exercised on a non-optional treadmill.

That’s all well and good for hamsters, but players in 2013 are realizing more and more that the emperor of treadmills has no clothes. We want more from our gaming than a mandatory treadmill ride. Vertical progression is an old answer to the question of making an engaging MMO. We’re ready for a new kind of MMO.

well said, good for the hamsters to read. However, I like to call them donkey or sheeps.

ooookieeeee….

MikaHR.1978:

Hell Avenger.7021:

MikaHR.1978:

Man, i wish stats were way more simple since its obvious that there are so many people who dont get difference between square and linear function and are clueless how stat work in GW2, but at the same time feel like they should comment on it.

To be honest, I know the math of squared and linear function. However, I have no idea which stats is linear or squared. They don’t tell me anything on the stats page. Except higher is better, but nothing else

Took whole of 5s to find:

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Damage

And i guess “critical chance” and “critical damage” are self explanatory.

Which should be part of the stats page explanation instead of on a 3rd party website. You think I dont know that wiki page exists?

MikaHR.1978:

Man, i wish stats were way more simple since its obvious that there are so many people who dont get difference between square and linear function and are clueless how stat work in GW2, but at the same time feel like they should comment on it.

To be honest, I know the math of squared and linear function. However, I have no idea which stats is linear or squared. They don’t tell me anything on the stats page. Except higher is better, but nothing else

woot free ascended dmg hahah

mtpelion.4562:

In English speaking countries, the distinction between a “fee” and a “deposit” is pretty clear. You do not get fees refunded.

Since the game includes non-English speaking countries, however, it would probably be a good idea for them to clearly indicate the “Non-Refundible Listing Fee”.

lol, let’s not talk about the “proper english.”

It should be clear and concise. Right now, it is not clear and concise and that is the reason why we keep seeing this type of post coming up time to time again.

NBrother.6259:

The sword skin can be sold. I Just picked one up and if i right click to sell there is about 15 of them up on tp but it is showing 0. You are not able to find it on the trading post unless you own one. There are only 3 orders one for 15g and two for 1g. Hopefully this gets fixed. I can’t sell my sword if no one can find it .

wow really?

Vol.5241:

That really is amazing. Perhaps someone misclicked and bought 10 instead of 1? ;|

You sure it wasnt you this time around too?

honestly, they need the have that warning somewhere in TP. Seeing so many new people getting burn by this, and I saw even more selling bulk items to take off and relist. I calculated their profit and they were in the red, the guy doing that didn’t even know

I really dislike the vertical progression lover. They are like donkey, needed a carrot in front of them to give them incentive. They are the true sheep.

Vol.5241:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Vol.5241:

Here is a really nice blogpost that briefly touches on the difference between a rise in price due to demand and inflation.

http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.ca/2013/07/asset-price-inflation-is-not-inflation.html

It also talks about how the current usage of ‘inflation’ and ‘asset price inflation’ or ‘demand-push inflation’ is misleading. There is only one kind of ‘inflation’

You mean more money = the one kind of “inflation”

Now, thought experiment time. If apple demand was permanently increased by 50%, because it cure and prevent cancer. The production of apple stayed the same, and resulting in price of apple going up. Would you consider that inflation? or just a random blip? (AKA level 500 crafting as a permanent addition)

Just curious.

Even with your condition of ‘permanently’, I would not consider it inflation. I’m no economist, but from my understanding of the theory it wouldn’t be. Apples are just one product. Inflation takes an index of products. Maybe if you had a world that just consisted of apples but…that thouht would be absurd.

And besides. If demand were to permanently rise, that means price will go up right? That would signal the suppliers to start producing more to take advantage of the price. But that would eventually lead to more competitive prices and we would end up at an equilibrium.

Assuming if the price does not go up to the point of the new gold generation, as a result the opportunity cost is much higher to come add to additional supply of apple.

What I am trying to say is increasing in the demand of certain goods can increase the prices. Inflation as a CPI is a basket of goods, but it can be affected by few goods. Especially, all the T6 materials will likely have a usage in creating T7 materials. That is a permanent new usage, which could cause a permanent increase in price. AKA, Your living standard just decreased, because you could no longer afford “basic necessity.”

Tom Gore.4035:

Also, who are you to say the price of precursors will drop when they become craftable? By all we know they could require 750 lodestones and 1000 T6 mats to create.

more expensive than legendary? lol you gotta be kidding me

Vol.5241:

Here is a really nice blogpost that briefly touches on the difference between a rise in price due to demand and inflation.

http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.ca/2013/07/asset-price-inflation-is-not-inflation.html

It also talks about how the current usage of ‘inflation’ and ‘asset price inflation’ or ‘demand-push inflation’ is misleading. There is only one kind of ‘inflation’

You mean more money = the one kind of “inflation”

Now, thought experiment time. If apple demand was permanently increased by 50%, because it cure and prevent cancer. The production of apple stayed the same, and resulting in price of apple going up. Would you consider that inflation? or just a random blip? (AKA level 500 crafting as a permanent addition)

Just curious.

TooBz.3065:

Yeah, it’s all speculation at this point.

It’s possible that T7 materials could be made by combining T1-T4 materials, or T2-T5 materials or a lot of T6 materials. All it said was T7 materials would be made by combining lower tier materials.

In terms of preparation, I plan to start drawing on my retirement fund.

oh god, if it doesnt use T6, imagine the crash hahahaha

Saint.4789:

I have a question for the people knowledgeable in Economics:

Other then physically destroying currencies, in real life there’s no “money” sink, as mostly everything ends up having value and no money is physically removed from the economy (except the money destroyed, as I referenced above).

This game, anything bought at a vendor, anything traded on the trading post, anything that involves trading currency with an NPC is a subtraction of the currency from the economy. This means that it’s gone, it’s literally out of the flow.

Secondly, as player base increases, wouldn’t inflation go down as the money is spreading out.

Can someone correct me here if I’m wrong? as I understand it, unless core components of the economy change (TP fee, where the money goes when buying from a vendor), all inflation is temporary.

To answer your question. We do not know if there is already a slow constant inflation, since we do not know how much gold gets destroyed in the TP and Merchants versus how much gold generated. I suspect a very low inflation rate in this game but it persist.

Inflation could be or could not be temporary due to another factor, the supply of the goods. If people feel certain activities is more attractive, but that activities take them out of the production loop. You will face a shortage in that materials, and you will see price hiking. Prices hiking translate into inflation.

Oh I am just curious if ANet will take deflationary action or just let the inflation sit.

Adam Smith confirmed there is inflation due to recent event, albeit not as bad – as some people imagined.

What we know:
“In the last week, the median player earned less than 3 gold in the new content (that’s discounting all players who earned less than 1 gold).” (13 days ago)

A rough thought experiment (Take it with a spoon of salt)

Assumptions:
1) Based on some random facts that gets threw around the forum, there are probably 460k active players?
2) Conservative Estimate: 50% of people earned less than 1 g.
3) Assume the median number of gold generated in queen pavilion is 3g
4) Assuming median is a good proxy for sampling average,
5) Assume normal distribution curve applies.
6) Assume the current Invasion farm generates 3g (Personal experience is 3g to 5g just coins generation, I am taking a conservative estimate), and 50% of the players continue to not generate much due to boredom. They don’t like to zerg pavilion, they don’t like to zerg invasion.

1 Standard deviation is 68.02%. That means 156,000 players (460,000*0.5*0.6802) (Rounded due to inconcise estimate to begin with) made 3 gold on one week period.

That means an injection of 2,098,000 gold over the 3 weeks period. (I added back 1 gold per 50% population in one week. I know I didn’t do all 3 standard deviation of the 50% more active players)

Issue:
We do not know how much gold the player base generate per week prior to the events.
We do not know the scale of deflationary factor of the Trading Post Tax.
We do not know the standard deviation, therefore could not calculate the rest.

However, I am curious on their stance on deflation.I hope they would take active stance to stabilize inflation around 0%. This is not a real world economy, where small inflation is actually good. (Since your vendor prices are static)

There is definitely inflation during this period of time. Smith confirmed it with his subtle message, but he is saying less than scale some people that exaggerates. My concern is that he realize this virtual economy is not a real world economy, and deflation might not be as bad as in the real world. (Since most of your goods sold to vendor and from vendor are static price) Therefore, hopefully Anet can deflate some of the inflation created in this recent events

Create a new set of maps, and rotate them on weekly basis. It will create a breath of fresh air. Random rotation (not including the maps that were already played on)

Vick.6805:

The Terrace is permanent. The Royal Passes are temporary in an attempt to get players to spend gems repeatedly for ‘convenience.’

That said, the Royal Terrace is totally useless, IMO.

There are plenty of places that have all of the crafting stations and necessary merchants that are easy to get to, and some of those places are even more convenient than the Terrace.

I’m really not sure how the Royal Pass even made it past the initial brainstorming session and into the gem store. This is the one item I’ve seen in the gem store that really hasn’t made any sense.

EDIT: I take it back…the swim speed booster doesn’t make much sense, either.

and there are always people who will buy it. LOL, it doesnt really cost ANET that much to develop that terrace.

danbuter.2314:

Poledo.3256:

there is no gear treadmill. You have time gated content and shinies.

They’re fixing that soon! Ascended armor, baby!

you consider that a fix? I guess it is, it is end game if gear treadmill get added, because I will not play anymore. Waste my life chasing a never ending goal set by other’s whim, LOl

Mourningcry.9428:

Hell Avenger.7021:

MORE BS, now you are claiming to know that there will be changes to DROP table. buddy stop please. pulling stuff out of… isn’t going to help your argument. I am merely basing on the current system staying the same plus additional crafting supply source.

LOLOLOLOLOL

Btw, I know more about economics than you.

Again, just ignore what you don’t want to adress. That’s cool. And while you may very well know more economics then I do, you lack in reading comprehension. I never claimed to know anything. Just throwing out possibilities that are just as valid as the simplistic eutopia you’re portraying.

Have a good one.

Go read my above EDITED post, I took the time to point out how many things you are assuming.

Final say: WAIT for the patch note, and stop this speculation that you will have zero ground to base on.

Or using your logic, I can just wildly assume ANET servers explode = game over.

Mourningcry.9428:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Look man,

Current Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge

New Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge
Crafting

Do the math, how many new method? ONE. Now you have TWO supply sources.

Some people just cannot do the math… holy, 1+1=2, man. Get a grip.

TBH, I am already short of calling all you said as BS. Now I am saying, it is all BS.

More Supply = LOWER PRICE, as long as demand don’t increase (If you buy that crap, I don’t. I don’t care what Smith said, this market is commodities market. “Demand” will only increase if you cause inflation -> during short term it looks like demand increase)

And if the precursors are account bound like the last recipies introduced? 1+0 = 1

Edit:

Further, coming off my first edit, you’re presuming that the rate that each of supply source remains the same. Maybe some of the Forge makers shift to crafting and deplete that to a negligble source? Crafting, assuming it’s not bounded, would be a possible substitute, or an addition, certainly both. And while one may not preclude the other, one may very well cannibalize the other due to efficiencies.

You presume way too much. And have a knack for oversimplyfying, ignoring and dismissing factors you don’t feel like adressing.

/end edit
Let’s say supply does increase. Shift the supply curve, shift the demand curve higher price point.

Not BS, simple Econ 101.

Edit: I should clarify, magnitude of the shifts would be key. So, it’s more fair to say price may change. I let my own bias into that one.

MORE BS, now you are claiming to know that there will be changes to DROP table. buddy stop please. pulling stuff out of… isn’t going to help your argument. I am merely basing on the current system staying the same plus additional crafting supply source.

LOLOLOLOLOL

Look here are your assumptions:
1) Drop rate of MF will be lowered (idk where the hell you made that up from)
2) Precursor Crafting could be account bounded (??)
3) Supply of materials for precursor crafting going to be a factor (Don’t make me LOL, that isnt a factor to determine additional supply. Why? Simply because precursor supply was fueled by Mystic forge, now an additional supply source open up = more supply. how many more idk, but there will be more)

MY assumption:
1) Mystic Forge stay the same.

Your assumptions for the factors you mentioned above are just OUT OF THE THIN AIR. AKA worthless assumptions until patch come out. So quit spewing nonsense and wait till patch note, alright?

Btw, I know more about economics than you.

Lothirieth.3408:

Hell Avenger.7021:

I thought people troll those websites, so most of the time they are all wrong.

The one I use is right pretty much all of the time. Only time it’s not is immediately after a patch.

This is kinda one of those things where it benefits people to work together.. help each other find the nodes and remember where they all are. If you troll and remove everything, then you’re gonna have a hard time knowing where all the nodes are at. :P

PM me the site. I want a reliable site for this.

lol, Anet will not do it. Precursor for all your characters = ENDLESS end game goals

oh apparently, I cannot type long string of “hahahahah” after this comment, the MODERATOR had to delete my comment

*NOW SAME COMMENT, with no “hahahhahahaha” *

Sardonia.8196:

I believe the accended items are account bound until equipped. The t7 materials can be sold on the TP.

really? dont lie. YOU LIAR!

Lothirieth.3408:

It’s not that hard to go out and gather it you know. Without going into WvW, you can get at least 45 ore per character. There are nifty websites out there that allow people to work together and update maps of where the current nodes are as well.

There’s no need for a rich node. Prices are probably going up due to people potentially stocking up for the new crafting and being busy with the invasions instead of doing some farming in Orr.

I thought people troll those websites, so most of the time they are all wrong.

Mourningcry.9428:

Hell Avenger.7021:

Mourningcry.9428:

fuji.6283:

The ridiculous price of the precious precursor has skyrocketed beyond unimaginable costs. Arenet, you need to get things together and release your new crafting system soon. The legendary gold grind process is really getting dull.

I’m really curious why so many have bought into the idea that the precursor crafting is gonna be some kind of silver bullet.

If it’s a “fair” method, I think a good many people are in for a shock in just how arduous it may turn out to be…

I post it elsewhere, but just for some quick estimations -

Mourningcry.9428:

Perhaps… but take the case of Dusk and Twilight…

For a while Dusk’s role could basically be broke down roughly as % of Twlight such that it was

~25% as an outright ingredient (1 of 4 parts)
~40-45% as a converted gold cost if bought from TP(does not include Gift of Mastery, or Clovers)
~99.99% as a drop acquisition (being generous)

You can blend and weight those attributes arbitrarily to come to exactly what % of the Legnedary the precusor contributed in your opinion. But at least it gives some boundaries for what it actually represents.

So, when taking into account those very generalized breakdowns, thinking that crafting the precursor would ease the burden of creating a legendary to less than just the outright converted cost, just seems optimistic.

And now, assuming that the crafting still uses the now appreciated T6 mats, instead of T7, or gated mats, it’s arguable that it could even be more prohibitive. Worse yet if it includes a new RNG gated element similar to clovers.

I’m not painting a picture of doom. I suppose it’s only natural to be optimistic, but even a conservative estimate would look daunting.

everything you said above is just from your imagination. What you just said is no better than some people’s expectation that it will be easier. Truth is nobody know what will happen, but one thing is for sure… MORE SUPPLY.

And how’d you’d come to the conclusion of more supply?

Suppose the crafting method is more prohibitive then just farming gold? Then supply remains the same.

And even if there is more supply, this doesn’t necessarily correlate to lower prices.

Alternatively, suppose it’s easier to craft, but crafting results in an account bound item. Now, supply stays the same, or even decreases.

Imagine much?

Look man,

Current Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge

New Precursor Supply:
Mystic Forge
Crafting

Do the math, how many new method? ONE. Now you have TWO supply sources.

Some people just cannot do the math… holy, 1+1=2, man. Get a grip.

TBH, I am already short of calling all you said as BS. Now I am saying, it is all BS.

More Supply = LOWER PRICE, as long as demand don’t increase (If you buy that crap, I don’t. I don’t care what Smith said, this market is commodities market. “Demand” will only increase if you cause inflation → during short term it looks like demand increase)

Mourningcry.9428:

fuji.6283:

The ridiculous price of the precious precursor has skyrocketed beyond unimaginable costs. Arenet, you need to get things together and release your new crafting system soon. The legendary gold grind process is really getting dull.

I’m really curious why so many have bought into the idea that the precursor crafting is gonna be some kind of silver bullet.

If it’s a “fair” method, I think a good many people are in for a shock in just how arduous it may turn out to be…

I post it elsewhere, but just for some quick estimations -

Mourningcry.9428:

Perhaps… but take the case of Dusk and Twilight…

For a while Dusk’s role could basically be broke down roughly as % of Twlight such that it was

~25% as an outright ingredient (1 of 4 parts)
~40-45% as a converted gold cost if bought from TP(does not include Gift of Mastery, or Clovers)
~99.99% as a drop acquisition (being generous)

You can blend and weight those attributes arbitrarily to come to exactly what % of the Legnedary the precusor contributed in your opinion. But at least it gives some boundaries for what it actually represents.

So, when taking into account those very generalized breakdowns, thinking that crafting the precursor would ease the burden of creating a legendary to less than just the outright converted cost, just seems optimistic.

And now, assuming that the crafting still uses the now appreciated T6 mats, instead of T7, or gated mats, it’s arguable that it could even be more prohibitive. Worse yet if it includes a new RNG gated element similar to clovers.

I’m not painting a picture of doom. I suppose it’s only natural to be optimistic, but even a conservative estimate would look daunting.

everything you said above is just from your imagination. What you just said is no better than some people’s expectation that it will be easier. Truth is nobody know what will happen, but one thing is for sure… MORE SUPPLY.

Vol.5241:

It’s permanent. Passes are temporary to encourage gem sales for those who want convenience.

That. which is comforting, meaning temp kitten will eventually come back

Onkelbubu.3108:

Its not about materials and playing with peoples impatience. Its about stealing their money by playing with precursers. Its only about precursers.
Those should be treated like special goods ( by arenanet ), they are not and thats the problem.
Exploiting this is what makes me rage.

Look man, Hermes Paris Birkin Bags, they sell for about $10k. The cost of production, even though it is craft by some master craftman in Paris by hand, is way lower. Think the cost as below 1k, it is just some cow skins plus an old man that works slowly.

However, people are willing to dish out that 10k for 1k (true value) for status symbol.

John Smith.4610:

Hey all, I pulled the data (again) on dusk sales for the last 2.5 days. This shows the quantity of unique buyers and sellers and dusks:

I think it may be a bit premature to start panicking.

lol, now people will be panic buy…. all unique buyers. and then we will have a huge discussion on inflation

it is market manipulation, pure and simple. You pay up, you are a bigger fool

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Vol.5241:

No one in their right mind would pay +1000g for Dusk.

+1000g for new legendary precursors? You bet.

I think you are underestimating the mindless zerg farmers who made 1000+g from the gauntlet and other farms.

I’m afraid this will probably be the new price point due to the massive gold inflation we have seen this past month. Due to the low volume and high demand for precursors they will inevitably be hit hardest by the inflation.

I call BS, and you are prob the one who bought them all or scaremongering.

gaspara.4079:

A monopoly only really works if there isn’t strong competition in that market to be able to stop you. However since new Precursors are create out of thin air everyday in the form of loot and mystic forge rewards its impossible to truly monopolize that market. Sure you might be able to sell 1 or 2 at an exceedingly high price, but you are left with a fair amount of that precursor and the long term value won’t be a huge increase, likely not enough to cover the 15% fee. Also since it has been announced that a more control-able way to get precursors is coming they will likely take a fairly large value hit when that happens.

Well, to be truly honest. If you are able to control a large portion of the market share (e.g. 80%). You can pretty much operate as a monopoly, don’t get the wrong ideas guys. This buyer will have a monopoly for a short period of time.

I already know the reason why he is doing it, gutsy move nonetheless.

ShadowMaster.5708:

Ok so.. Spoilers of upcoming releases down below! read at your own risk!

Ok, so now that MMORPG.com has released info about the next patch i saw something interessting…

“Legendary Weapon Updates: Legendary weapons will receive a stat boost, an Offensive Infusion slot to align with new Ascended weapons and additional functionality, among other things.”

This made me really excited. We have all seen the new meteorlogicus in the screenshots, and we all know that… But…

It say they will use offensive infusion slots…? This is a NERF towards legendaries if this is true. Most people run sigils on their weapons. Like on kill sigils or on crit sigil. Like me. I have a Superior sigil of earth on my dagger for a condition build (60% to add a bleed stack on crit) which is important for my build to work. But with infusions i CAN’T HAVE SIGILS.

And all the people with bloodlust sigils etc.? What happend to those? This is a problem…

Also, the recipe requires a sigil. you need a sigil to make legendary weapons, will this get changed…?

And the last part got me thinking.. .“Other functions and things”… Is this the thing many people have been waiting for? Legendary account bound? Can i finally use my incinerator on my necro AND thief?

no wonder some idiot went to buy up all the precursors LOL.

Lane.3410:

If they don’t come back they will absolutely go back up in price. People wanting matching weapon sets (it’s surprising how many people didn’t get to do SAB last time) + a new batch of speculators who will probably start buying them.

There’s certainly enough gold in the economy right now that the SAB skins are very affordable. I’m biased, but aside from the Zenith weapons I think the SAB skins are the best looking in the game and they’re also the cheapest by a decent margin.

i didnt do it last time… because i quit for 6 months

Ashadow.6874:

Behellagh.1468:

You don’t find 1g+ major runes on pieces going for under 20s. You don’t find ones that consistently sell for over 5s.

So lets limit runes to 3s20c to 5s for your example.

Runes have an 80% chance with master kits.

(2266 * 0.9 + 320 to 500 * 0.8) * 0.85 – 1536/25 = 1888c to 2012c

Mats don’t add a lot to the equation. Light armor drop silk at 7c vending price and gossamer at 1s; medium armor drop thick leather at 7c vending price and hard leather at 15c; heavy armor drop mithril at 27c and orichalcum at 4s50c range. Because of that heavy armor is priced much higher than light or medium. Regardless what the description says, T6 mats drop infrequently. My last salvage run of 215 dropped only 35 T6 and 400 or so of vendor grade T5 silk and thick leather. That added on average another 20c each to the pot.

That still makes the average return around 19s70c. That makes buying light and medium armor at 20s a losing affair unless the “odds are ever in your favor”. Get a poor ecto return and the losses become noticeably larger.

Honestly say if I personally were doing this, and would only losing 30c (per item) bought? I would take a 1g (for a loss of 30c each for 333) loss to throw in 333 orders at 20s and drive everyone else out of the market. A 1g loss is tiny, and I wouldn’t even bat an eye at it if I could knock someone else off my market, and then go back to earning 1-2s+ per item after they are essentially tired of dealing with me.

You think it is a failure, because you don’t understand it. But if they are doing it correctly, even a 20g loss (say edging people out of high priced dyes) to edge people out of any market, nets a HUGE return in not having to deal with other people pushing your market.

But back to my original example. If buying 333 items at 20s will kick you out of my Rare Armor/Weapon market, and make you give up. Spending 1g is not a huge problem.

That guy however, was either rolling rares into Exotics, or rolling for a precursor. And if he gets lucky its a huge payoff for him and well worth the cost.

Except once profit returns, they will be back. ahahhahah. I WILL BE BACK!