Guild Wars 2

Dumb Woob.9415:

OliverLogan.7145:

Legno.6548:

Armor level 80 yellow salvaged with Master Salvage Kit
775 Armors
402 Ectoplasm
634 Rune
1120 Common Materials
99 Rare materials
Drop Rate Ectoplasm 51.87
In the past I had 89 % ration on ecto from rare

I would like to ask anyone with a sound knowledge of statistics: what is the percentage chance of this occurring if we assume the 0.9 return rate is unchanged?

Now, this isn’t truly a binomial event, because we can get more than one success per attempt. But we can approximate this as a binomial event, with a .89 probability of getting the desired result. The number of trials here is what should jump out to you to tell you this result is strange if the .89 rate was still there.

If we use the binomial distribution to make this approximation, there is a probability of 4.441 × 10^(-16) that 775 trials would yield 445 or fewer successes given a success rate of .89. That is what leads these folks to the conclusion that the likelihood of the rate being the same (Type I error, here) is extremely small (you probably have a better chance of dying by a lightning strike, and someone at your funeral also dying by a lightning strike in the next year). Typical thresholds for these kinds of conclusions are 0.001, 0.01, or 0.1. This is something like 0.0000000000000004.

Now, like I said earlier my estimate using the binomial distribution is a touch flawed, but not 16 orders of magnitude flawed.

I just did my own independent calculation and I can confirm this.

Even if you had a 50% chance of getting 2 or 3 ecto’s for each salvage attempt after just 7 tries the probability of not getting 2 or 3 on all 7 tries is 0.0078125. The larger the number in a row of not getting the multiple ecto salvage @ 40% means there is next to no chance of this occurring. It is either a bug or an intended change to the ecto salvage rate provided the example provided is correct which I don’t doubt.

Sucks, I was making a few gold there…

CuRtoKy.8576:

Buttercup.5871:

Curtoky, You might want to check the posts made by the people before you. Some people buy rares by the thousands, and then salvage them.

I’m counting on John. Last time he did a test he salvaged 1 million rares. Yes. One million.

Anyone here work for ArenaNet? Anyone know the actual code? Ok then. I have 2k ecto so to say I don’t salvage by the thousands is soo wrong just because I don’t post. I am just posting it out there for others to understand that the system may be more complicated than what it seems. This happens a lot when people write about stuff like RTL or something as if they know 100% how the system works when it is completely more complicated or about precursor stuff when the business side and such is complicated where they won’t have a system in place in a very short period of time. Please be careful what you post beforehand, just because someone choose not to post on these forums about things doesn’t mean they don’t know what they are talking about (I choose not to post because of individuals that jump the gun like this).

You don’t have to know anything about the code to post your experiences. As a software developer myself I find feedback from laypeople essential because they don’t have the detail of the code and are just looking at it from a user’s perspective. It is then up to the me (the writer of the code) to investigate and see if the outcomes are symptomatic of something not right or if it’s working as intended.

Some good news!

John Smith.4610:

Just a quick update, I want to be thorough, so it will be a couple more hours before I have anything to say.

There are 2 options to be taken from John’s response in my view:

1. The drop rate shouldn’t have changed so it’s a bug.
2. NCSoft wanted more gem sales by nerfing ecto drops, I better get PR advice on what to say.

I hope it’s number 1.

I must admit it is a silly way to pick leaves/berries off a bush…

my sickle sporadically disappears when I’m using it. o_O

Yeah and the drop rates seem reduced too.

Yeah, it was a big nerf. I usually do way less than 0.5 per hit so count yourself lucky. T.T

I have no doubt the bottom line of NCSoft is doing great at the moment, possibly to do with RNG chests etc. But what makes money and what is fun are 2 different things in my book. I know a fun game is subjective, but my problem is I’ve been brought up on games that reward hard work.

For me NCSoft is doing a lot to take the fun out of games by fiddling with drop rates, diminishing returns, player nerfs etc… unsurprisingly this is why the last couple of months have seen me go back to single player games where big brother isn’t ruining my experience. Perhaps I’m just not a MMO kind of guy, it’s just too time consuming without any real reward for the effort. If they gave me some descent loot drops everyday I’d certainly change my mind pretty quick!

So your suggestion is mini-games?

Personally I’ve never had any time for mini-games, I hate them… not saying others like yourself don’t like them but they make me shudder.

All I want is loot, and as the game stands now there is hardly any which is the main reason for the game being boring for me. IMO that’s where an RNG system would shine with randomly generated loot. If GW2 had randomly generated loot like Diablo 2, Torchlight 1 & 2, Borderlands 1 & 2, Titan Quest etc then I’d have little to complain about in the game because everyday would be a new experience even Tyria stayed the same. But then NCSoft would lose their control over the market so I don’t see this happening…

Erick Alastor.3917:

Remove/Modify Magic Find + Insert a button to downlevel our characters and give us better loot = Hard Mode

The drop-able/chest loot in this game is a laugh. No matter how difficult or long I spend killing a vet/champ (especially on my own) there is hardly anything worth writing home about, if I get anything at all. It’s obvious, they want us to buy things off the trading post with real money from RNG chests because that is where the good loot is (if you roll that 0.0000001% ticket).

It appears to me that to work hard at beating a difficult enemies is not how they designed loot distribution. If they changed the system to reward hard work to the scale of the challenge I would love them to bring on 100× more difficult challenges because then it would be worth it. But at the moment there is no loot on offer that is worth a > 10 minute battle, you’re better off farming SS for shells and powerful blood then buying your items off the trading post with the profits.

Arnox.5128:

You know, I can’t believe this game wouldn’t be doing well. You check the NA world population counts and it’s right there. Either Very High or Full. Yeah, this game’s definitely dying…

My understanding is the population descriptions of ‘Very High’ or ‘Full’ etc do not show active players, just how many accounts are tied to the server, so in that case a ‘Full’ server could have no one playing in it. Also, you can easily guest on a ‘Full’ server no problems, I did this last night.

Calae.1738:

Guns and Giblets.9308:

Marcus Greythorne.6843:

do you guys think?

You cannot create truly difficult and interesting content around invulnerability frames.

I disagree.

I’m sure they can create an NPC that one shots you with his club. The timing of your dodge has to be perfect. Too soon or too late and your dead. Add in a fake swing ability to fool the player into dodging early and you can create difficult content that demands precision, timing and awareness.

Split second dodging or die in a game that has some of the worst lag spikes, skill lag and camera control I’ve witnessed… no thanks.

How do you 1 shot anything in this game, the best I can do is 3 shot. I must be doing something wrong…

Mourningcry.9428:

StormageddonBK.9842:

It’s not about making the correct play, it’s about being informed. That is the whole point.

I get that, and have no issues with that. My point (made a few times across numerous threads) is that even given thakitten ’s the right thing to do, and even if it’s done, it’s not going to significantly change things.

Those that really care about the odds already have a good idea of how badly it’s stacked against them. Knowing exactly how bad isn’t going to really change anything for them.

And for those who are unaware of them, to what extent is it really going to change their behavior given their predisposition to being ambivalent towards their perceived odds? Sure a few may change, but a significant number? Perhaps you’re more optimistic then I.

Actually the reason is more selfish than changing the communities behavior. I just like to know what I’m getting myself into before I leap.

Geotherma.2395:

I hope people will read this and understand as I may not be able to explain this in a way that everyone will understand. So bear withe me.

I’m not trying to get into an argument or go around in circles so I apologies if I came across in that manner. Believe it or not I’ve been a software developer for the past 15 years and I do have some understanding of your post. I work with random values in my scripts often and even though I understand they are technically not random they do a good job mimicking the behavior. If the whole reason they can’t give odds is because the ‘randomness’ is based on the users connection, clock etc then that makes sense to a point, however, why can’t they give us the programmed odds with a disclaimer to that effect? It seems strange to me in this day and age that this would be a limitation that couldn’t or hasn’t been overcome.

Mourningcry.9428:

StormageddonBK.9842:

Knowing the odds does matter and is the whole issue, that is the only way you can make an informed decision.

StormageddonBK.9842:

/snip
In addition, I used to work at an international casino and I regularly saw people bet or red/black on roulette continuously (49% chance on each spin to win). But casinos have a limit on how much you can bet, so if someone keeps doubling their bet they’ll regularly hit the limit before they can get their money back, therefore they lose (worked out to be 7 times before you hit the limit at my casino).

Then you should know better then most that even having the odds readily available, the vast majority of players are either unaware of them, don’t know how to interpret them, or simply don’t care. Just walk over to the craps table. I have rarely see anyone making bets to take the house edge down to less then 3%. Or just look at the example you gave.

It’s highly optimistic to assume that given the odds, players will make the correct play instead of the one they want to.

It’s not about making the correct play, it’s about being informed. That is the whole point.

Geotherma.2395:

But it isn’t, you have 100% chance to get something when opening a chest. That isn’t gambling, thats winning. Chances may vary, results may vary, but the end result is you winning 1+ items of some type.

I respectfully disagree. For you this might be true, but for me if I buy a chest it is for 1 reason, to get the skin, I don’t care for the boosts and mats because I rarely recover my costs by selling them. So each time I don’t get the skin it is a loss.

Geotherma.2395:

Explain how you can budget against RNG even with a % of a chance. Because even if it is 1/100 chance and you buy 110 you can still end up with 0. RNG and fuzzy logic does not work that way. Each time you open you roll that random number again, you are NOT getting closer to a percentage or a number each time. Your chances reset each time and are set at a very low probability. The chance to obtain skins is on par with between the chance of obtaining an endless mystery tonic, and a large guild discovery.

I said “guess” a budget and I gave a rough range that someone could have an expectation of some return. Nothing is full proof, that’s why its called gambling.

In addition, I used to work at an international casino and I regularly saw people bet or red/black on roulette continuously (49% chance on each spin to win). But casinos have a limit on how much you can bet, so if someone keeps doubling their bet they’ll regularly hit the limit before they can get their money back, therefore they lose (worked out to be 7 times before you hit the limit at my casino).

Knowing the odds does matter and is the whole issue, that is the only way you can make an informed decision. The lotto example isn’t relevant because we know the odds of all real life gambling and your prize is scaled to the odds usually (e.g. lower odds give better prizes).

If people still chose to buy RNG chests after they know the odds then they’ll have far less cause to complain because they were told there is only a X percentage chance of getting your item. They’ll also be able to guess a budget for getting their item (e.g. if it is 1% chance for the drop they might need to buy/find up to 100 or 150 chests to get their item on average).

If there is growth it’s probably in Korea…

Pandabro.8743:

That’s just bad design, but thanks for letting me know about it before I bought any ascended gear! It’ll save me the headache!

Having made the infusion slot mistake myself (I severely face-palmed myself) I’m not surprised these mistakes are made. I too am glad I read this before making the same mistake in the future.

This is the first game I’ve played where you can have 2 unique items and not use them and the game should not let you equip (soul-bind) them if you already have 1 soul-bound to that toon. I write automation scripts for a living and this is a fundamental requirement to not allowing the human factor to screw everything up.

I think Iron Maiden said it best…

“…as soon as you’re born you’re dying…”

So the game is dying along with everything else in the universe. T-T

I agree, but I just hope they get rid of ‘rare chance’ items and replace them with ‘pay for what you want’ items in the near future…

Haven’t noticed any delays on mine, sorry.

Sky.4356:

Would you buy the next expansion? Why or why not.

You can’t buy it, the expansion is in a chest which only gives you a ‘rare’ chance to get it… :P

I wonder if the staff at ANet get a RNG pay packet…

It’s hard to earn because others in the game are getting better. With any money market for every coin someone earns someone else loses. To make money you have to play the market better, catch the wave early when an exploit has been identified, and don’t tell your secrets if you’re the one who discovers it, but I guarantee anything profitable wont last as others catch on.

Best way to defeat Grenth is for 4-5 guys to push him into the far corner where the skillpoint is while everyone else takes care of the mobs. Trying to kill him out in the open tends to fail unless you have a lot of allies with nobody standing on the stairs.

I’m having an extended break from the game at the moment but when a vid on youtube showed the new unlimited pick which was only for a ‘limited’ time I promptly got online and sold my mats to buy one for my main. I’m still not playing, but I just didn’t want to get back to the game in 6 months when there was no opportunity to get one… :P

Cowrex.9564:

Kasama.8941:

Just like you have different movies, you have different games. If I want to be engaged in a game, I play a single player story driven game, like The Walking Dead. If I want to play a fun game, I might play a game like Portal 2 or Botanicula. But when I just want to relax, I play Guild Wars 2. It sounds to me like you just need a break.

I agree with your point! I guess OP just needs a break from all these!

To OP: I think the game is fun, and it’s because it has almost everything in an RPG that makes it fun (for me, anyways) and that includes choices, voice, combat, exploration, tasks, quests, story and etc.

I’d also like to add that Anet did a hell of a good job in making this game! (again, in my own opinion although there are some that share it with me)

This is where I’m at, I just don’t have fun with GW2 (possibly never did as it’s not really my kind of game) so I’m having a break. I’ve played 5 hours per day since launch and I think I’ve burnt myself out trying to make the game fun where I really don’t think it is (this is my first MMO).

For me, what makes this decision hard is all the hours I’ve invested in building my toons (getting skins…), having a break feels like the game has defeated me and I’ve wasted my time. I know in reality I got lots of game time but knowledge and feelings don’t always coincide. The best thing with single player RPGs is you can stop and pick up where you left off 12 months later without missing anything, but with an MMO that is always getting updated I feel like I HAVE to log in or I’ll miss out on something, especially seasonal events that are only on for a short while.

Maybe I’ll come back, but I’m having fun with non-mmo games more than ever so I’m not sure…

I like the event, and I also like the fact you can solo it!!!

My only issue with it is trying to farm for legendary AND 8 bit skins…

I agree, ANet is not fulfilling their promises which has left a very bitter taste in my mouth. If things don’t turn around I don’t think I’ll be getting another ANet game on principle.

I agree completely.

Nike.2631:

StormageddonBK.9842:

Maybe some anti-gambling Ministers of Parliament could be made aware of this…

Out of curiousity, what’s your endgame on this? It won’t change the way the game opperates. At most you might get the game blocked in your region, and then nobody gets to play. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face…

My endgame is ‘not have gambling as the focal point of obtaining things’. IMO this is sending people the wrong message, especially the young. I don’t care about adults throwing money (real or virtual) down the lion chest toilet. However, as a parent, I find the practice of exposing children to this culture abhorrent.

The little jab at sending a message to a Minister would at most have the game’s rating looked at, but in reality nothing would happen at all.

At the end of the day my hope is ANet moves away from using this method of rewarding players.

Meglobob.8620:

One thing I wonder, is the Age restriction on GW2 is 12 yrs old, yet the game clearly encourages gambling…

Also, its not virtual money…because you buy gems with real life currency…so its gambling with real money…

I wonder how many politicans in government of whatever countries know this is happening and would they be interested?

I certainly could see the age limit being raised to 18+ at the very least…

Maybe some anti-gambling Ministers of Parliament could be made aware of this…

Oda.2348:

@StormadgeddonBK

I think you’re being overdramatic. “RNG” (or called by it’s simpler name, “chance”) is a core mechanic in most forms of gaming — whether it be MMOs, Video Games, Board Games, Sports, and so on and so on.

Yes, RNG is part of most games. However, when you wrap RNG with a slot machine graphic it instantly becomes online gambling even if no money is spent.

My concern is the act of gambling within the GW2 universe and the blurring line between a normal game with RNG (D2 is all RNG but there is no gambling) and other games with RNG that use a gambling mechanic (e.g. slot machine game etc).

This is a serious post on a topic which I am getting most concerned about from an ethical perspective.

I’ve been playing since launch and I mostly like the game for its WvW RPG flavour, however, there is 1 thing that is very disturbing for me. It’s apparent the trend towards gambling.

I understand ANet are in this to make money (they have every right to) and I think they’ve determined the best way to make money is to have the outcome of most new purchases unknown with painfully low drop rates. It started with the mystic forge (you could farm everything but people still buy mats etc), but now with the progression to black lion chests (fused skins) I think they’re going too far into the ‘casino’ business.

Is this game crossing an ethical boundary from casual mmo to online gambling and should the rating on the game change? People, I’m guessing lots of underage kids, are dropping real money and gambling it away. When does this kind of behaviour constitute adult only activities?

I’m not going to support this kind of business practice, I’ve not bought a key and I never will. Any chest I open will be from drops (never got one) or map completion. I have also stopped my children (15 and 11yrs) from playing the game as I believe it does cross the boundary. Even if you didn’t spend real money on the game the simple act of gambling in-game gold would still have me concerned.

So let me know if you think I’m being too precious or do I have a valid concern?

Morrigan.2809:

Arche.7489:

It’s amazing how many of you complain about how they do weapon skins in BL Chests WHEN YOU PLAY THE GAME FOR FREE! My god, content doesn’t magically make itself.

We do not play the game for free we bought it and I dare say many of us have spent quite a bit of money in the gem store. Which is a BtP game’s main source of income.

The point is we would spend much much more if we could buy the things we want outright.
I really don’t understand this obsession with hiding things in gambling boxes, skins are great, we all want more skins.
Let people buy them already

^ This!

Ragnar.4257:

Fairly sure the skins vendor was released 6 days early.

Hahaha!

This game is meant to be about the skins, where are the new skins!!! April fools…

I wonder who makes these decisions?

Can you imagine a theme park that didn’t allow queues? I guess it wouldn’t stay in business very long…

sostronk.8167:

Rackhir Tanelorn.9123:

Valik Shin.9027:

Do people not realize u also get rewards for defending?

You also get rewards for killing Invaders…

but no, most people don’t realize that :P

You get alot more “rewards” for attacking.

I agree, you get WAY more from attacking.

Before I joined a WvW guild I was always defending towers, I did this 90% of the time. I barely got anything for my effort, maybe 1 or 2 bags an hour and wasting all my silver on upgrades and siege. Plus it was very, very boring to sit in a tower waiting for an enemy to show up and bash on the door.

When I joined an organised guild that 1 or 2 bags turned into 50-100 per hour. I amassed 2,500 badges in 2 months! There is no incentive that I can see to defend except to kill time and frustrate the enemy IF they ever turn up.

Ralathar.7236:

Now you more properly appreciate one of the big difficulties with giving players freedom and choices, people today more often than not take the “easy” route to “win”.

This is human nature, to win, and win most efficiently. This is why a lot of us level up to 80 and want BIS gear, not for fun but to win (for many this is fun). If I can zurgball for 2 hours what took me 2 days to do then I’ll choose the 2 hour method every time (for me that’s 6 hours less grinding so it’s a no-brainer).

The system ANet setup is to give a reward for each win, this means the more wins you get per hour the better-off you’ll be, so ANet either made a mistake in their design or they want this.

Sokina.8041:

For the record, I know what devourer he’s talking about, and it’s entirely possible to get one-shotted by it. I ran a full defensive guardian, highly over-leveled for that zone, with appropriate gear, and it still two-shotted me.

So I’m sure lower leveled, lower geared, NOT-defensive guardians can easily get one shotted. I had to do that event myself, as well. He’s not exaggerating about 15 minutes. Not every monster in the game is perfectly scaled and perfectly balanced. Some of the champs and even a few vets are absolutely ridiculous for the zones they’re in.

I’ve been saying this for months… Thank you, I thought I was the only one who experienced this. For this reason I think my preferred PvE playstyle of self imposed permadeath is impossible.

I’ve tried for 4 months straight to play hardcore in this game (at least 40 restarts) and I can tell you it isn’t easy. Usually at level 20-30 a random lower level NPC will somehow king-hit you and you die instantly without any chance of survival.

I was a 10 vet of hardcore in D2 and never did I think ‘wtf’ when I died (single player local play, not online). That’s because the enemies were consistent and there was no lag or culling. You knew what you were getting into before you took on the enemy plus you could out level them if they were getting too tough. In GW2 there is an element of the unknown which you cannot always account for plus you’re character level means squat as it is always manipulated by the system. To have hardcore in GW2 you need to have a separate hardcore server with different mechanics to normal PvE IMO.

Agreed, IMO this is the standout part of the game.

Yes, my server went over a week without the gates being cleared so there was no merchant. Then thought I’d try guesting to other servers, and it worked, Tarnished Coast had the gates cleared with the merchant present in front of the gates.

I went to Tarnished Coast to get my Karma gear.

About 5 hours per day, got 800 on the clock.

I would play more by the wife and kids are already wondering where I am and when I’ll return… kitten mmos.