What about the glicko hell of low/top tiers? Will you prevent tier walls with this system?
As Glicko “figures out” an appropriate rating for a given world over time, both its deviation and volatility decrease. This is Glicko’s way of determining how well it “knows” where a world belongs, and settling it into place so it neither gets stomped by a higher-tier opponent, nor effortlessly dominates a lower-tier one. However, this intended purpose of Glicko is also a major factor in causing matchup stagnation.
For this first beta we’re raising Glicko’s deviation and volatility for each world, but leaving rating alone. This will cause a greater variety in matchups as Glicko now “thinks” it has less of an accurate rating, and will willingly shuffle worlds around more as it tries to sort them out again. EU will have particularly high variation in matchups since ratings aren’t spread quite as far between top and bottom tier worlds, as they are in NA.
When creating each week’s matchup we also do a little bit of random shuffling after Glicko sorts things by rating, with the shuffle being based on deviation and volatility. So matchups will again be more variant in the coming weeks. Though EU will have higher matchup variation than NA, because it won’t take quite as strong a random roll for a world to be matched against others in different tiers, due to EU having less of a spread in Glicko rating from top to bottom tier.
“Glicko hell” occurs when a few worlds have enough distance from the rest for these random rolls to never match those up against the rest. The difficulty of climbing back out of this comes about because of how Glicko determines how far a world’s rating should change after a round ends. If a higher-rated world beats a lower-rated one, this is as expected, so the winner’s rating doesn’t change very much; it’s already where it belongs relative to the opponents it just played against.
Due to the increased deviation and volatility combined with fewer total worlds, there shouldn’t be a “Glicko hell” again for a little while. We’ll continue to watch how Glicko rating, deviation, and volatility develop to see how well world linking— and our approach to it this first time with Glicko— plays out in the Live game. It’s a delicate balance to hit where there’s enough matchup variation to not be stagnant, but little enough to not create unfair matchups.