2, but decrease the standard deviation of the randomization rolls.
Tyr Sylvison – Warrior
Illyiah – Revenant
2. this despite the terrible rolls this week that gave us the one matchup we absolutely did not want.
the new system is not intended to lead to ‘stable’ matchups, it’s intended to make the ratings more accurate, especially between tiers. in order for the ratings to stay accurate (and therefore for the rankings to be meaningful) it will be necessary to play opponents outside of your tier from time to time.
as a side effect, the new system also eliminates the problems of tier stagnation where you play the same opponents over and over and over, and color stagnation where you always find yourself the same color (hindering map completion).
-ken
Let me give you this link, it will explain some things about statistics.
Large data sets aren’t necessary?
In a roll where certain events can happen 1/1,000 of the time (Source: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Lost_Orrian_Jewelry_Box/Drop_rate. All the lodestone are 0.1% or lower) you think 83 rolls is enough to get an accurate distribution? Are you serious?
This is the crux of the difference between salvaging ectos and opening these boxes. Since the success rate is already exceedingly small, to detect a decrease in this rate (which is necessarily also small), you need a much larger sample size to make a statistically significant statement about some kind of change in the rate.
With ectos, the prior rate was about .9 per item and dropped to around .5 per item, making a relatively small sample just fine. However, if we consider the 1/1000 drops from the Lost Orrian Jewelry Box, we would need to open about 3,000 boxes to be 95% assured to get at least one of those drops. As a corollary, we would need a sample slightly higher than that to make any conclusions about a statistically significant change, if there is one.
I appreciate you using my post in the other thread to try to shed light on an issue, but I’m afraid the examples aren’t exactly compatible.
Don’t despair! If this continues, SBI will move up 60 Elo points after this round. Honest. Since you’re so much lower rated than your opponents, you don’t have to score as many points to get a positive rating. It’s sort of like how a draw in chess can result in a rating change if the opponents are rated much different from each other.
What’s annoying is the lack of fighting spirit, and the lack of foresight. This week may suck for SBI, but what about next week? Next week you could be the server with the mega-zergs. Enjoy the variety! Enjoy the experience! Learn new tactics! Just stop the QQ!
Doing what I can for DB during EU primetime
In practice, the servers full of people who give up in the face of adversity kind of deserve to get lower ratings.
The higher-rated servers are the ones that continue to fight, no matter what. Under the old system, tier stagnation allowed some servers an easy ride once they fought their way into a tier, but under the new system each server will have to continually prove that they deserve their rating, or risk falling in the rankings.
-ken
You drew a random number, that’s how.
If you guys truly destroy them, as in they tick at 0 ppt 12 hour of 24 hours and 10 the other 12, then your rating will go up, there’s will go down, and you’ll have a lower probability of playing against them in the future.
Whoever loses the most rating in the Tier above you will have the highest chance of facing them next week.
Seems you do have motivation, not to face them again. The more rating you can stuff between your servers, the less chance that has of happening again.
use this week to explore new siege placements, gear up, and save siege for next week when you will probably not face them again.
I have heard there are some harpies, scritt and centaurs to kill. They are feeling so ignored otherwise.
Tenebrous Fivetree – Guardian
Zelots of Shiverpeaks (ZoS) – Northern Shiverpeaks
(edited by Tenebrous.2451)
I have no reason to play guild wars 2 now. I dont want to level, i dont want to do dungeons, i DONT want to do anything associated with PvE at all since i hate it. I am sitting here, switching borderlands and EB waiting till i finally see my very first Vabbi or fissue of woe enemy.
Please explain how WE, while completely holding EB and a borderland against Arborstone AND Whiteside ridge for almost a whole week, got put in this lowest tier.
Even without our weekend warriors they are no match. Do they even have anything at all?
It’s only a week dude. Enjoy the easy win for once, next week you may be in T3 getting slammed for all we know!
RIP my fair Engi and Ranger, you will be missed.
Devon please can you fix the EU matchup – how did Gunnars end up against Piken and Riverside? Jon Peters made clear this sort of thing wasn’t going to happen, and the maths had it at less than 0.3%.
I’m thinking the matchups that took place (albeit short) actually counted towards the servers ratings leading to some servers rating going up or down on drastic levels that should not have happened.
Anyone that thought about it for a second should know that the odds of having the same matchups this week are still quite high. The system isn’t just going to instantly compensate for large rating gaps (especially in top and bottom tiers). It may take 2 or 3 weeks to see some mixing and matching. Quit asking for so much all at once and just play the game.
I would say we are all disappointed but I am rather relieved that Anet found a bug and are fixing it rather than releasing it and then us finding the bug
Devon did the right thing letting us know as soon as they found out it wouldn’t be ready for the next weeks matchup
but still a disappointment
Relax and be patient. The vast majority of people farming T6 are currently doing so in SS because of the settler buff. Where the mobs don’t drop dust. This is why blood and venom sac prices are down some.
As far as farming bags, instead of being a lamer and humping one spot, run the event chains in Orr. A top to bottom run for Mel usually generates 10-20 bags for me, depending on what MF I’m running and my party status. The Shadowfain-Jofast bus is also solid, a full Grenth attempt and subsequent re-attempts will net you a lot. And don’t forget poor old Megil, the maggots off her friend’s corpses can be very generous. I’ve gotten about 10 bags off of them by myself with no MF before.
Oh and sorry, I had a hand in driving prices up, I just bought about 180 dusts over the last couple of days to finish off my gift of magic.
As for those who want compensation. Suck it up folks. I was burned too but at what point did you not notice something amiss? Even a sampling of 25 is enough to show that something was off. True it took me 75 to really accept it and I did another 10 after one patch to see if was fixed and then another 75 as documented test cases for the unbelievers out there. Still at 160 I probably lost around 10 gold overall including profit I would have had. Sure my profits are small compared to the big boys but that’s still like 15% of my current net worth.
So if you do 100s upon 100s and not notice something was amiss, too bad. Learn to monitor your production rate and when it derails STOP.
RIP City of Heroes
The charr of other legions are practical – while they’ve developed technology to lessen their reliance on magic, magic is still too useful a tool to simply abandon. Charr spellcasters in the other legions do have some stigma attached to them (which creates a bit of a vicious cycle – the stigma leads to some defecting to the Flame Legion, which confirms that the distrust is valid in the eyes of nonspellcasters) but as long as a spellcaster isn’t attributing their powers to religion, they’re officially accepted – and are probably trained as such in the fahrar if their primus feels that that is how a given cub might be able to best serve the legions.
People don’t hate Scarlet like Game of Thrones fans hate Joffrey.
They hate her the way Star Wars fans hate Jar Jar Binks.
Except EVERYONE isn’t complaining. Some people are complaining. I’ve also seen people say they’re getting the same results as they did before the patch. Saying everyone is complaining when everyone is not is called exaageration and doesn’t win arguments.
I’m sorry, the market doesn’t lie.
Sell listings for nearly every T6 mat are down since 4 days ago and prices are rising to match the lack of supply. Whether or not a few people experience ‘similar’ results the world market shows a depression in supply.
Also you latch on to one broad generalization instead of actually addressing the issue itself. Lol.
I think you’re saying two very smart things here.
First: The market doesn’t lie.
Second: The sell listing for nearly every T6 is down.This to me indicates that this “crisis” is manufactered, rather than real. It’s true that the sell listings for some T6 materials have gone down considerably over the past days (e.g. dust, bones, claws). Others, however, have stayed untouched (e.g. blood, fangs, scales). If there truly was some error in code, why does it only affect some of the materials?
this whole situation seems rigged to me. But let’s just wait if ANet finds something.
Blood, fangs and scales all drop in Southsun Cove, where most people are farming now due to the event. Bones, dust and claws dropped more in Orr, where people have largely stopped farming.
I’m not sure what the mystery here is.
Hey all, just wanted to let you know I’m still working and I’ll keep you updated as soon as I have something to post.
Working on lie? Cause how hard is it to check loot tables? This is FotM stalth loot nerf story all over again.
Checking loot tables is easy. Checking everything that might possibly interact with them is not.
Just checking the loot tables would be like taking your car in because it’s been a bit sluggish when you step on the gas, and the mechanic thinking it’s all in your head because the “Check Engine” light isn’t on.
delicate, brick-like subtlety.
They should do what they did on gw1 and have AI mobs have skill builds just like players.
Actually mobs are already using the same skills as players do, if you read the combat log you can see the proper names there. That’s not true for all of them of course, but lots of mobs do. What every mob is missing is a “skill1”. A fast attack, that deals low/moderate damage, all mobs have super slow attack speeds, with high damage, but also, due to their slow speed, are easy to dodge/block/reflect whatever. Mobs need first and foremost faster attacks.
Then make them run out of aoe circles, like in GW1 and finally make them use their skills with some intelligence, currently they are mindlessly using their skills, like those Earth Elementals using their reflect shield when nobody is attacking them with Projectiles.
To be fair, a lot of people are screaming conspiracy theories and hate while the community team try to quell the outcry in an attempt to keep the riot down to a low murmurer. Not to shut you up, but to keep panic and mayhem low so things can be looked at/talked about rationally.
If there is a bug, then blasting them about it and calling them liars is not productive to the situation. Continue to post evidence and talk about it rationally and keep emotions controlled. Better for you and the community.
If you still think it is some sort of conspiracy theory of how the man is trying to keep you down, then I can’t help you.
They do polish, bug updates, etc with each update. There is nothing saying that more weapons and skills won’t also be rolled out in these updates.
However, they do need to focus on the core game before they work on an expansion. More pvp options, get most of the bugs fixed, make sure all the base mechanics / loot scaling / etc are working smoothly (and as intended), continue with rolling out the living story, and so on BEFORE they try adding an expansion on top of it. Otherwise, it will just compound the issues that people are already griping about.
I wouldn’t even say that they are ‘mainly’ focused on the living story, but that’s just my 2 cents there. We don’t know one way or the other really.
Lets not assume that it will hit at the same time as the festival. Some of the things in the dat-file turn up several updates before it actually get into the game.
As for the Skyhammer that sounds like a WvW-thingy in my eyes.
Krall Peterson – Warrior
Piken Square
Well, I have been pvping a lot recently and really wanted a sclerite weapon to use there. So, I decided to sue my savings and try to get one. Over 600g spent…. Probably about 150 crates opened, and now I am left with nothing. Seriously? I feel cheated x.x Hopefully in the future anet will not release items that are only obtainable through ridiculous gambling.
I noticed no one posts what ELSE they got, could you list that so that it doesn’t look biased like you literally got 0 drops from every drop after 150. And how much that stuff netted you on TP.
Nvidia GTX 650 Win 7 64bit FFXI 4+yrs/Aion 4+ years Complete Noob~ Veteran OIF/OEF
http://everyonesgrudge.enjin.com/home MY GW2 Music http://tinyurl.com/cm4o6tu
but ya its still gonna take 566875763 trillion years to gear my 5 wvw toons. Thanks a-net. I wont be forced to play fractals so I guess ill be a lowly wvw peon for ever.
So, you’re characters are in full exotics and you keep dying in WvW and you think it’s because everyone else has ascended gear?
There was mention of new items including the sickle a few weeks ago. I made sure to slowly convert my gold to 800 gems right away because I knew a spike would occur as soon as the item would be introduced. This only affects those who aren’t paying attention and wait until it’s too late to convert gold to gems.
ArenaNet does not control Gold to Gem prices players do.
And you believe this why?
why would you believe otherwise?
[Currently Inactive, Playing BF4]
Magic find works. http://sinasdf.imgur.com/
Because builds don’t equal skill. And in PVe, even if my build isn’t a “standard” build, it works quite well for me.
In Guild Wars 1, people used to ask me to ping my build, after which they wouldn’t accept me in their groups. So I’d go solo the content with heroes, come back and wave at them, trying to build their group.
A lot more people out there think they have a clue than actually have one.
I have a feeling once the new reward system for wvw is put in there and that you can get ascended neck and rings from wvw you will see wvw activeness kick up a good bit. Most likely to the point that we will see ppl saying GW2 is only about WvW.
Simply put its a very bad time to transfer wait a week or so and see how things pan out for where you are and other places.
Guild : OBEY (The Legacy) I call it Obay , TLC (WvW) , UNIV (other)
Server : FA
Ok, I simulated 100,000,000 random matchups to see what’s likely to happen, and what’s not likely. I started with the ratings and volatility values from this page:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/big-changes-coming-to-wvw-matchups/
Blackgate
65.6% chance of being matched against Jade Quarry
54.6% chance of being matched against Sanctum of Rall
29.8% chance of being matched against Dragonbrand
19.6% chance of being matched against Fort Aspenwood
18.4% chance of being matched against Tarnished Coast
4.5% chance of being matched against Maguuma
4.4% chance of being matched against Kaineng
2.1% chance of being matched against Yak’s Bend
Ehmry Bay
23.9% vs Anvil Rock
23.3% vs Borlis Pass
22.9% vs Stormbluff Isle
22.9% vs Crystal Desert
18.3% vs Darkhaven
17.3% vs Sea of Sorrows
14.0% vs Yak’s Bend
12.0% vs Isle of Janthir
11.1% vs Sorrow’s Furnace
10.4% vs Kaineng
10.0% vs Maguuma
3.8% vs Devona’s Rest
3.4% vs Gate of Madness
2.8% vs Northern Shiverpeaks
Eredon Terrace
57.8% vs Ferguson’s Crossing
49.1% vs Henge of Denravi
25.4% vs Northern Shiverpeaks
23.5% vs Gate of Madness
22.3% vs Devona’s Rest
7.9% vs Isle of Janthir
3.1% vs Darkhaven
I hope this helps people understand what matchups are likely under the new system, and what matchups are unlikely.
Note that the percentages add up to 200% because in each match you will face 2 opponents.
-ken
As much I hope this new system work out ok, I can’t see it happening. Unless they lower the spread matchups random math, even the chances are low, tier 1 servers can fight against tier 3 servers wich I don’t even need to say how bad that would be.
Why not a very basic ranking system(NO RATING)? Like this:
- FINISH MATCHUP 1ST PLACE = MOVE UP A TIER
- FINISH MATCHUP 2ND PLACE = REMAIN ON TIER
- FINISH MATCHUP 3RD PLACE = MOVE DOWN A TIER
This way a server will never ever face the same matchup in a row plus they will always be fighting against a server that you can compete as well as you are close each other(like an imaginary rating).
what you’ve described is usually called WULD (Winner Up Loser Down), and it turns out that WULD has even worse volatility.
WULD essentially guarantees that a T1 server will fight a T3 server every other week. Likewise, it will put a T2 server against a T4 server every other week, and so on.
To understand why, imagine three closely-matched servers in Tier 2. The winner will move up to tier 1, and the loser will go down to tier 3. meanwhile, the loser from tier 1 will come down to tier 2, and the winner from tier 3 will go up to tier 2.
The match will be a blowout. the T1 server will easily beat the T3 server (and probably the T2 as well), and the next week they’ll go back up and the T3 server will go back down, resulting in essentially the same matchups you started with. then a week later, the blowout will be repeated.
-ken