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They went with the cash shop for a reason. The expansion model is a fading trend, and cash shops are where most games are going. Not just mmos, every type of game you can imagine. Facebook type games are making millions, and its solely a cash shop revenue. There is no proof that money is being lost, or they arent making enough, and everything points towards a sustainable amount of income from the current model even if we dont have the exact numbers.
I did read that wrong but it does not really change what I wanted to say. There is something in the cash-shop that you like. Now is buying that really fun or would be playing for more fun? Many people say “well you can convert gold to gems” so then the question would remain, did you not like to play to get the gold?
So what I am trying to point out is that by putting something in the cash-shop they do take something away from the game. Now you could still get it (grinding gold) but not really in a fun game-play way.
“Also those numbers don’t show how much revenue was game sales, and how much was gems. ”
No it doesn’t but it’s the best we can do with the numbers we have. However you may expect that the initial spike is mainly box-sales and there will for sure be people who did mediately buy gems for character slots and so on there will also be many box-sales in the quarters after that. So to level that out I did count the initial sales (that spike at the beginning) as pure box-sales and all income after that as pure cash-shop sales. That should easily level everything out the best we can with those numbers.
“With over 3 million games sold in the first 9 months. That’ s why you see a large drop off of sales toward the present. ” Yeah that only supports that it are mainly box-sales and that a B2P game (that is how many people did see GW2 on release because they released it as B2P and what they did with GW1) does have the potential to sell very good.
I am afraid that now they turned cash-shop focus even if they would be releasing an expansion they will not get close to sell that many while with GW1 they where able to almost sell as much copies of the first expansion as they did sell original copies.
I leave China out of it because it’s unrelated. There would be a China release whether they would use a true B2P model here or use the model they do now.
I never said they are losing money or where not making enough. I am not sure where you did read that?
You said “like getting paid a 6 month salary at the start of that period, then nothing for another six months. You can have that, or have a Daily income that has much more of a potential of making more during that same 6 month period. ” All I did show is that the numbers do no show what you are saying.. It does not seem to have much more of a potential of making more then the expansion-based model. In fact it seems to be the other way around. You are right about the fact that there is more or a period of no (lower) income in-between but that should be no problem. You simply work with the money form the last release. That is in fact how most businesses work. You invest and then later (and a year is not even that much) you earn, part of that you invest again and so on.
“The expansion model is a fading trend ”
Not sure why you would call it a fading trend. It is used a lot in non-mmo (counting sequels in the same model) and has never been used much in the mmo world but GW1 was successful with it and it made ArenaNet big. Then less then two years ago GW2 got released as B2P model (turned out to be a little different after release) and it became the fasted selling mmo on release in history. It’s not a popular model from a business standpoint likely because it’s more risky. Squeezing out money with a cash-shop is more easy using many marketing tricks. A successful B2P model means you also need to have a good product that people are willing to buy. Hyped would works for the initial game and it’s first expansion but want to keep selling expansions then you just need a good product.
So no the term fading is not correct.
Again, I never said they where losing money not earning enough or that they don’t have a steady flow of income. I only countered your comment that this would likely generate them more that a expansion based model would. I do however think that for the long term (3+ years) it will be more of a difference. I do think that a true B2P model has much better prospectives for in the long run simply because it alienates less people.