Beyond that there is no reason to think vertical / horizontal players are clustered only in one group or another! So I dont believe it is even possible to make such a design decission based on playstyle!
More so then that I would be really surprised if vertical players payed more then horizontal players! Its true you can buy gems and convert them to money and thus buy weapons with them but there really is no reason to! you can easily craft 1 exotic gear/weapon a day! on the other hand horizontal players generally like their cosmetics and collecting stuff making them more likely to buy skins, costumes and minis
Though obviously this is all speculation on my part!
I agree with you on most of the things I do not quote here again. On the quoted things I agree with you that should be difficult to identify pure horizontel or vertical type of players. Same goes for buying vertical or horizontel items in theorie. Still the reason for most of buyers with the high spend is staying ahead or at least showing of with items nobody has.
Big Point used to be (maybe still are) biggest publishers in browser based games and they liked to tell that item selling works best in countrys with high machismo. Thats not realy a huge point against your argument, but I think it shows the varity of actual gameplay/f2p models. Some really close to creative day light robbery, some rather just free and a lot of games in between.
My personal worries are where will ArenaNet end up?! BioWare used to be one of my favorite companies in the industrie and still they ruined SWTOR. So (as you may have already guessed) I am a big fan of GW2 and its not good to see that ArenaNet does not know where to go. So I think the concerns about the future of GW2 and if we can trust ArenaNet or not is the point in which our opinions realy differ.
I am sure some people will pay for power when they are forced to, no doubt! even gw2 is a good example, how people complain that to get Ascended armor is a massive grind yet they rush to do it just cause they have to have the best gear even though none of the game requires it! But that doesnt mean people will only pay for power! Big point might have gotten their conclusion from a sort of self fullfilling prophecy kind of thing because the little experiance I had with their games, their cash shop sell mostly power items. In battlestar galactica online you had ships and while I didnt have a first hand experiance I know that there was a story not long ago where in dark star or what its called they used to sell really expensive drones that fight along your side. in case of the drones at least the cash shop was the only way to get it! In Gw2 there is no such wall, its not pay or you will not get the item you can get absolutely anything by investing the time to play the game! on the other hand you could use money to get them but it will cost so much that hopefully that cost will work as a deterant !
I dont think Gw2 doesnt have a direction at all! I think their direction is to be as open as possible! I see that reflected in all their designs really, its not just about being vertical or being horizontal ! Their game’s moto is play the way you want after all! How many MMOs allow you to get to max level crafting? or by doing PvP? or Give you XP for just exploring around, Allow you to play any zone in the game even at max level? Allow you to get the best equipement using any game type you choose (right now this is temporaraly not the case as they’re still phasing Acended armor but they already assured it will be). To me Gw2 is all about freedom and In my opinion they do that very well!