Guild Wars 2

Even if there was inflation, it wouldn’t affect the casual gamer or the returning gamer much. Casuals and returning are going to be making most of their gold from selling drops and harvested mats. And if there has been inflation, then at least some of those items are going to be selling for more.

Really the only people harmed by inflation are those who are sitting on a big wad of cash that they tirelessly farmed up and then stopped playing the game for awhile. When they come back, they will have less purchasing power with that wad then they did before. Casuals and most returning players aren’t/weren’t sitting on a big pile of gold to begin with.

This is what I’ve been using with great sucess:

http://gw2skills.net/editor/?fYAQNAqYVlcmKP3eS6E+5EB3Dnm0m694ri1saFoJA-jUCB4MCi0Cgk0BKFKs5QDRrsuIasaGYaUER1eEFRrWKAYWWB-w

Obviously some of my pieces would be improved with ascended versions, but as of yet there are no carrion ascended trinkets :P I think I prefer carrion to dire since at a thieves base health and armor, stacking vitality gives more effective health than stacking toughness for quite awhile and toughness doesn’t help against conditions and there are a lot of other people out there running condition builds, and that extra power isn’t completely wasted. Toughness from dire is such a small increase in survivability. If I’m taking that much direct damage that toughness would start to matter, I’m going to want to hide or book it anyway.

The confusion on perplexity runes are still great after the nerf to them. The nerf just added a cooldown on the #6 bonus and the only way I can interrupt with this build to begin with was with steal or stolen items so I will never really hit the cooldown anyway.

Is it any wonder that Blackgate won when they showcased more WvW guilds than other servers have non-bank alt guilds of any kind?

laharl.8435:

mtpelion.4562:

laharl.8435:

The snowflake salvaging wasn’t a bug.

It was a bug, in that it allowed the creation of Globs of Ectoplasm through the use of Mithril, a clearly unintended result that clearly rewarded those who used the bug.

How is it a bug? There was no malfunctioning code, everything was functioning as intended as far as I know. It was an exploit of existing mechanics.

Virtually every computer bug (except for those that are the result of faulty hardware) is the result of code doing exactly what you told it to do. It’s just you mistakenly told it the wrong thing to do.

It’s a bug because they never intended the recipe to be what it was.

Did the OP not get tomes of knowledge? My server came in 5th in our league and we all got like 6 tomes of knowledge. Six instant levels for an alt, that seems like a pretty sweet reward to me.

Did no one besides me think that the 6 tomes of knowledge were a pretty sweet reward? 6 pain free levels for an alt? Not too shabby.

I’m confused. Gems are the same price they’ve always been: 800 for $10.

Did you think you were supposed to buy them with gold without excessively farming for gold? You were misinformed.

They didn’t promise. They said they hoped to have it by the end of the year.

I think the problem with your plan of just merging servers together is that you fail to take into account is player playing patterns. Some players don’t ever even touch WvW, and likewise, some players almost never do anything PvE related. For instance, my server, GoM, is considered Very High in population, but we are routinely outnumbered in WvW and are in the bronze league. This is because a large section of our player base is only concerned with achievement point hunting. During the early weeks of this WvW season, we had really high participation, but as people completed their achievements our numbers have significantly dropped off to the point where last week HoD dominated with having 2-3 times as many players in WvW as us even though I think our server is considered more full than theirs.

If you just go merging servers together all willy nilly, you’re likely to get the worst of both worlds. You’ll get a server that still does poorly in WvW and rarely reaches the population cap on a map to be able to compete and you’ll simultaneously get a server that has a ridiculous problem with overflow servers during any big living story event.

Just something I’ve noticed with most people I speak to.

Those who purchase gems seem to have no affect on thier luck from MF, whereas people who never purchase gems are getting the same amount of precursors one would expect from RNG.

It would not make sense for anet to reduce your internal ‘luck’ or precursor drop chance based on how likely they think you are to purchase gems instead.. but do you think some one might think up a crazy conspiracy theory about how they would stoop that low?

knbBlackTemplar.3059:

Is it was necessary to make all party members in story looks absolutely same?

Are you saying all asura look alike? Racist bookah!

I like Scarlet. I love it when she says “Die. Die. Die. Die. Die. Die. Die.”. I am excited to see what her game is and how it ties in to any other things already in the game or lore.

It’s not that she is behind every plot. It’s all been one plot with multiple episodes. Some people I guess just don’t get how this living story thing was supposed to work. ANet wants to tell a story about Scarlet that won’t fit into a single 2 week update, so they are telling it over multiple. I can assure you Scarlet haters out there that this arc with scarlet has a planned end and that Living Story will eventually be something other than Living Scarlet, but I am enjoying it while it is.

a t s e.9614:

Yea 2500g is ok but 2700g is not ok . Why keep rising it ? It’s ridiculous , its going to be 4000g in a month then .

And in a year, it’ll be 14,300g!
http://xkcd.com/605/

Ascended Gears reversed would be sraeG dednecsA!

Only goes back to Nov.15 no matter what item I search. Do you have to create an account and log in or something to get data from further back?

Has gw2tp only been around for like a week? The data doesn’t seem to change between clicking the “1w” and “all” buttons.

I used the gas mask to complete my iron man themed outfit.

Does any one know why Pristine Toxic Spore Samples or any item with the word toxic in its name is not tracked on gw2spidy?

Both the recipes and the un-charged quartz are tradeable on the TP. I haven’t checked recently as to the availability of the recipes but I’m am sure that there is plenty of quartz on the TP, although it has recently spiked in price a bit.

Next you’ll be complaining that a condition thieve’s bleeds tick on you while he’s in stealth. Or that a guardian can hold up his shield to block once while he attacks you. Or that a mesmer can attack you while his clones are up and you don’t know which one is him.

Gabby.3205:

I wonder if they will be available for a limited time or if they will be a permanent addition to the store, because the gems are way too expansive right now. I was going to buy it for my Mesmer so she would have a nice staff skin while I don’t get a white ascended staff for her, but with the 50g I would spend right now I could just finish leveling Artificer.
Probably limited time only, like Braham and Rox’s weapons.

I can almost guarantee you that they will be limited time only, and I can also almost guarantee you that the amount of gold that it takes to buy 1 gem will trend upward in the long run. But 800 gems will ALWAYS be $10.

PraetorMortis.8610:

If you hired someone to paint your house and when you asked when it will be done, they told you a vague timeframe loaded with qualifiers, you wouldn’t hire them.

If you hired someone to paint your house and they said the job would be done by the end of the week, you’d be pretty upset when 6 months had gone by.

Painting a house is not an enormously complex task that requires the help of dozens of people, the use of complex mathematics, and when you miss a spot it doesn’t involve slogging through thousands of lines of code and testing for hours just to even find the spot. It’s more like building a skyscraper when all the customer has given you as a guide is a picture of what it should look like from the outside. Big construction projects are very often completed at times very different from their estimated completion date. And that’s what this game is more like, an enormous construction project. There are probably more lines of code in this game already than there are lines of text on this entire forum. And each of these 2 week updates probably contains hundreds of hours spent on art and several thousand lines of code.

Also, ANet doesn’t even have to add these things. You are not a house owner; this is not your game. You aren’t paying a subscription. This content isn’t an expansion. They aren’t on your schedule, they were just kind enough to give you a rough estimate of theirs.

If you really think this stuff is so easy to produce, maybe you should apply to ANet and finish it all yourself. I’m sure they would appreciate a programming savant like yourself.

Kittens is hard, yo. You have no idea.

Yeah, it would kinda make condition duration worthless unless they also made every condition last 1/5 as long and increased the damage another 5 times making it x25 per tick XD

Behellagh.1468:

Right now it’s $1 for 4G or 100 gems for 5G. We’re halfway there already Smooth and the curve is exponential. It’s just going to keep rising faster and faster as time moves on thus forcing the time when players will start buying Gems with cash and just maybe trade them for gold.

There are many functions and curves which appear to be roughly exponential at first but change as time goes on. One of the most common ones and probably the one at work here is the logistic curve:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Like was mentioned before, at some point buying gems with gold will be so expensive that most people will stop doing it, and buying gold with gems will yield so much gold that more players will be enticed to buy gold with gems from real money, and things will equalize.

However, due to gold inflation, I would surmise is isn’t exactly logistic, there is probably a linear component based on inflation. So, maybe more like:
g(t) = c1/(1+e^(-t)) + c2*h(t)
Where c1 and c2 are constants and h(t) is the inflation as a function of time.

Nah man, this game is Mouse and Keyboard Wars 2. Everywhere I go in this game, there’s content where I have to push keys and click my mouse. Go to another zone and just more keyboard button pressing and mouse clicking. It’s like, haven’t they heard of joysticks?

I too really need this skin. I made an Iron Man themed set of gear for my thief using asura cultural armor, but there were no medium helmet skins that were Iron Man-y enough, so I have just been hiding my head slot. But I think this skin will be perfect for it.

I feel like people aren’t understanding what the OP meant by “Ego-afk”. Unless I am mistaken, going “Ego-afk” is standing your character in a spot and going afk for the sole purpose of letting other people see how awesome your title and gear is. So, I’m not sure that the top of the bank or that hidden garden in the grove really qualifies because basically no one is ever going to see you there. It isn’t fueling your ego if there’s no one to look at your shiny armor and marvel at your electronic girth.

Neat, neat, neat!

Hell Avenger.7021:

Burden of Proof … lol, obviously you are a lawyer wannabe. Buddy real world investing or human behavior don’t always follow your rule book. Stuffs you learn in school is important, but please do not assume the world work in that naive simple case.

You want an easy way to spot real world insider trading? VERY EASY, check out the price of certain stock prior to M&A announcement, almost in all cases the price creep up a little.

10/10 excellent trolling

I kinda wish they would remove any kind of RNG that involves such low probabilities so I can stop hearing about everyone’s terrible math, failure to understand probability, not knowing what qualifies as statistically significant data, “luck” (not the in game mechanic), and crazy conspiracy theories.

I think what our most disgruntled original poster is talking about is all forms of passive health regeneration, not the boon in particular.

Yeah, where is your source on any of these claims as to what it’ll be like?

I’m sure the people selling it would happy to sell it to some one else for 70g. Remember, you are not the only person in the game. There are millions of players in the economy.

I dunno if it’s worth coming back. Is it worth having fun? Whatever grind there is you impose on yourself. You could always, you know, just play the kitten game and not give a kitten about what rewards you get because you don’t need them to, you know, play the kitten game? I mean, shiny things are nice, but if you wouldn’t enjoy the game if it had zero shinies, then I dunno what you were doin’ playin’ the game in the first place.

Yeah, if you think the mummy is OP, you haven’t fought some one with the mad king scepter or the slightly less powerful witches costume item.

Seriously, what gives? Why do subsequent runs yield zero, zilch, nada, nothing? Not even 1 lousy trick or treat bag.

Is the Oct 11 live stream the “Intro to sPvP” video? I was under the impression that it was going to be answering a lot of questions about the upcoming Oct 15 patch, not some “Intro to sPvP” guide. Or is that one the one that’s going to be on monday?

Is there a recording of the Oct 11 developer live stream that I can watch anywhere?

Most interesting?
Definitely Caledon Forest. That place has 4 jumping puzzles, 2 mini dungeons, and even an unfinished jumping puzzle to explore if you know how to get there.

Most beautiful?
I’d have to go with Mount Maelstrom for the wide variety of scenery from inside a volcano, to asura architecture, from jungle, to underwater krait city.

I realize the large additional resources that would have to be devoted to it to implement it, but I think the most effective way to get better feedback and to make the community feel more listened to would be to have test servers open to regular players for most patches.

For one, it should reduce the number of bugs that make it to live in new content.

But on this topic, the most relevant piece is that with a test server open to players, players can try out changes, discuss, and give feedback on such changes before they go to live servers. Then because a patch on test is not set in stone, the devs can potentially make changes to the patch before it goes live. And in those changes between test and live, players can get a satisfying form of feedback in a short amount of time.

If players are discussing how something on test is under-powered and by the time it goes live it is slightly buffed, they can know that their voices were not unheard or ignored. It does not necessarily require lengthy forum posts of explanation. And it would of course also ensure that content gets far more testing and goes live with far fewer bugs.

Another thing I feel would be highly appreciated feedback is if most patch note line item changes included even brief or summary explanations of the rationale behind them. I understand that with the upcoming Oct 15 balance changes you guys have previewed some general outline of some changes, but very often changes seem inexplicable. It could be as general as “we felt the warrior didn’t have enough support options” or as specific as “in our combat simulations, thieves were doing 10% more damage than everyone else, so here’s some direct nerfs”. But so far we’ve had some really strange changes that basically no one asked for that you guys gave no explanation for like cluster bomb having its range reduced from 1200 to 900 making thieves officially the only class with zero access to weapon skills of 1200 range or more.

Another thing you could also try is modifying how your forum works. Instead of just having a ( + 1 ) rating button that basically does nothing, allow posts that receive enough ( + 1 )’s to be colored differently or highlighted in some way and make a (-1) button that if a post gets a low enough rating it is hidden so that unhelpful or borderline troll posts do not take over the conversation.

I hate to say it, but look at how Blizzard handles patches, forums, and forum feedback with regard to at least balance patches.

Or you could also just hire some people whose entire job is to relay information from devs and interact with users on the forum.

And one thing that would help alleviate some player misgivings is if you refuse to allow 3rd party addons, that you would more often publish exact drop-rates yourselves. Or perhaps allow 3rd party addons that allow drop rate data collection. Or automatically add the actual experimental drop rate data from players to the wiki rather than the theoretic values. There are so many threads spawned about drop rate conspiracies, and we as players do not have any real way to collect data. One thing that was really nice about WoW was that WoWHead existed and had very accurate drop rate data. This was only possible because many thousands of players were always running an addon that collected all their drop data and automatically uploaded it to WoWHead’s servers and in this way the players had access to a large amount of unbiased data. Without this, when some one complains about an apparent nerf to ecto salvage rates, all we can say in response as players is “you’re probably wrong” or hope that some rich player can on the spot go salvage 3000 more rares on the spot.

Don’t be fooled, most classes can make a pretty decent support build if you know what you’re doing. It’s just that guardians are perhaps the most supporty natively, and aegis is super amazing. I for one play a thief spec that is really easy for me to just change which traits (without respeccing) and my gear and switch to venom share to share conditions and life steal and use things like shadow refuge for party healing and rezzing downed teammates fast in stealth, and keep weakness on stuff to make their hits hurt my team less. It can be a little awkward, because you have to stay pretty close to people to venom share, but they are increasing that radius with an upcoming patch.

I can agree that the current way to obtain precursors neither feels fair nor is it fun. Really your best bet right now is just saving up to buy one. But you just spent forever grinding for something that some one else just had fall into their laps. But I think this is why they plan on releasing other ways to obtain precursors like some kind of scavenger hunt or crafting recipe.

Theftwind.8976:

If you had been around during the great Wi Flag debate in Asheron’s Call (I was) you would have seen the same argument. Those people that were affected by this “bug” in the rng complained vociferously that they were bugged. Those that were not affected by it came back with the same arguments you see here. “It is all rng”, “you do not understand random number generation”, “random is random” and so on. However someone at Turbine did finally investigate and discovered that there was a bug that weighted the random number generator against a certain segment of the population.

We can all agree that there is no way for us, the players, to gather the data required to prove or disprove a bugged rng in GW2. We would at least have to know what type of rng they are using first and foremost and we do not even know that. However what myself and many others would like would be some indication/response from ANET that they will at least acknowledge our concerns and have someone look at the code for their rng and assure us that it is truly random.

Turbine did not want to do this for the longest time in regards to the Wi Flag in Asheron’s Call but finally did so. ANET should at least do as much.

You can read about the Wi Flag in Asheron’s Call here:

http://asheron.wikia.com/wiki/Wi_Flag

Random is not always random.

That was an interesting read and an interesting bug. I still find it highly unlikely that the OP of this thread has spotted such a bug.

We have that the prior probability of any given drop event being bugged at 1/1000.
P( B ) = 0.001
We can estimate that we get a thread about broken drop rates on the general forum like every couple of days, so the probability of a drop rate bug report is roughly 1/3
P( R ) = 0.333
We have that the probability of a player reporting a drop rate bug when there is a bug is roughly 90%
P( R | B ) = 0.9

So, if we we would like to know the probability that there is a bug given that we have a report, we just apply bayes theorem.

P( B | R ) = (P( R | B ) * P( B ))/P( R ) ~= (0.9 * 0.001)/0.333 ~= 0.0027
or roughly 3 out of 1000 chance that there is a drop rate bug given this information.

Perhaps you think my prior probability estimates are off. You can argue about the prior probabilities if you want. Suppose you think that we only see a report of drop rate bugs once a month so that P( R ) = 1/30.
That would make P( B | R ) = (0.9 * 0.001)/0.033 = 0.027 or a 3% chance that the claimed bug is real.
Or instead you think there are far more bugs in the game, some ridiculous amount like 1 in 10 drop events are bugged. That would make P( B | R ) = (0.9*0.1)/0.333 = 0.27 or a 27% chance, still more likely that there is no bug.

And I was already being really conservative about an average player’s ability to spot this kind of bug based on feeling.

Personally I think the values for these things are closer to:
P( B ) = 1/1,000
P( R ) = 1/2
P( R | B ) = 1/100

Making P( B | R ) = 2*10^(-5) or 0.002% chance that this bug is actually there.

I am not just trying to be contrary. I keep hammering the point about anecdotal evidence being unreliable because I think it is key to determining the likelihood of this report. Because anecdotal evidence is unreliable we should disregard it, because my anecdotal experience is the exact opposite, that I feel like drop rates for myself and those around me are spot on to what ANet intended. But we should ignore that too. So we have no evidence about the current situation, but we do have evidence of past drop rate bugs and past drop rate bug reports, and based on those we should find it far more likely that this report is erroneous.

I don’t have any problem saying “I don’t know” when I don’t know to say the answer to a question that has some kind of unique answer like “What is the capital of Thailand?” or to questions to which I have no way to even estimate the probability because there is literally zero evidence one way or the other like “Are there parallel universes?”, but this is not one of them. We’ve seen people reporting about things like this before, we’ve seen that most of the time people don’t know what the hell they are talking about, and rarely there actually are bugs in the RNG that developers use the actual drop data to detect, confirm, and fix. For those things we can at least estimate. I am not completely certain, but I am like 99.998% certain.

As for your offer for me to go ask in map chat about people’s thoughts on drop rates, I’ve seen some people complain about drop rates and think they need to be raised from their current values, not complaining about thinking they are bugged. I’ve occasionally seen people complaining in map chat about ecto drop rates being bugged, but they usually get shouted down by everyone else in map chat saying “NO, RANDOM IS RANDOM!”.

I’m well aware of argument from ignorance. I am not claiming “I don’t know therefore it must not be bugged” I am saying “We can’t rely on a small amount of anecdotal evidence so we should rely on prior probabilities, and the prior probabilities indicate it is probably not a real bug, therefor not a real bug.”

It’s simple application of bayes theorem. But I guess if people knew how to apply bayes theorem we wouldn’t have everyone and their mother’s thinking that you shouldn’t switch or that switching is just as good as not switching in the monty hall problem.

Draco.2806:

Shufflepants.9785:

It is “I don’t know”, but it’s the kind of “I don’t know” that is almost certainly a “definitely not”.

Well, no. You have no evidence one way or another.

In fact the only kind of evidence (anecdotal) we have is contrary to your position. I’d wager the reason you’re getting negative response is because it’s obvious to most here that you’re just being contrary for the sake of proving a point that anecdotal evidence is unreliable – although true in itself, it doesn’t make the opposite false.

As I said: somehow a lot of people have trouble settling for “I don’t know.”

Shufflepants.9785:

it seems as though most people do not notice any problem or else there would be thousands of people posting on the forums complaining about it

Ah. Well, okay, then you’re just straight out wrong. Feel free to ask in global chat what people’s drop-rates are like.

Actually it’s a form of argument from ignorance. (Unlike the name says, it doesn’t mean you’re ignorant, just means it’s fallacious.)

But we don’t have zero evidence. We have the evidence that players are always thinking that there are problems (where problems are unintentionally low and not intentionally low but the players think they need to be higher) with drop rates in this game and many other games. There have been many threads over the past year about people thinking there has been a stealth nerf to ecto salvage rates because they and their friends feel like they are getting fewer than they used to. And almost always the players making the claims based on their “feelings” were wrong. Just based on that I would estimate the likelihood of any given drop rate bug turning out to be correct to be around 1/100 or even conservatively 1/10. So far, there has been only one patch that actually did cause such a stealth nerf to the rates. On that evidence alone if one sees a claim about broken drop rates based on a single player’s forum post, we should take it to be only a 10% chance at best that there really is a problem.

But that isn’t the only evidence we have.

We also have that psychological test after test has shown that people in general are terrible at judging probabilities in numerous situations for numerous reasons. Please see this list if you need examples: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases
So, since we have some players getting what they feel is a lot of loot, some players getting kittenty loot, or some players (like me) who feel like they’re getting about average loot considering the intended drop rates, if there is a bug, it is subtle, and only affecting some players. Therefore, it is unlikely that a player who is affected would correctly notice. People in general would tend to not notice even when affected, and others would claim there to be a problem even when there is none.

Then there is the fact that actual drop rate bugs are rare. There are many different things that drop loot, many different drop tables and almost all of them drop loot correctly. I would estimate that at most only 1 in 1000 drop event types are bugged; where a drop event is a particular type of object in the game that generates loot and makes an RNG call, so splendid chests, each mob type, each mob type in each event, mystic forge gambling recipes, and a plethora of other things that all have their loot determined in individual and different ways . And in this particular case, the type of drop bug that the OP is describing is completely unheard of. So, personally I think the prior probability for a bug of this type is more like 1/1,000,000 or lower, but I’m trying to be conservative here, so lets stick with the 1/1000 estimate.

Derigar.7810:

Ashabhi.1365:

Midnight Fire is actually listed as the darkest “black” you can get, but it does have a reddish tint on some armors.

As far as the others, there are over 400 dyes in this game. Many of them are ultra vibrant. I really don’t think we need another “tier” so to speak, but watch the BLT. They offer “new” dyes every so often that aren’t in the game yet or are limited availability items. Good luck in your hunt, but I think we have enough tiers to get…dyes shouldn’t be one of them.

I’m sorry, I don’t agree… Look at the dyes on the wikia…

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Dye

Look at “vibrant” colours. Do any look vibrant and flashy like the picture I put in the OP?

The color swatches shown on the wiki do not accurately reflect the dyes as they appear in game.

I, too, was disappointed by the mini assassin’s lack of a sword.

Draco.2806:

Shufflepants.9785:

And maybe I’m a secret government robot who is learning how to take over the world by lurking in game forums.

What, like the fifty cent squad? Who knows.

Actually I was trying to imply that you are, for some reason, taking a side in an argument where the correct answer to “Does it do this, or that?” is “We don’t friggin’ know.”

“I don’t know” is such a simple phrase, but for some reason most people have trouble with it.

It is “I don’t know”, but it’s the kind of “I don’t know” that is almost certainly a “definitely not”. You don’t know know for sure that there’s not a diamond the size of a refrigerator buried in your backyard, but I doubt you’re gonna go dig up your backyard looking for it. We do know that in addition to the handful of people complaining about drop rates, it seems as though most people do not notice any problem or else there would be thousands of people posting on the forums complaining about it. “I know” and “I don’t know” are not necessarily binary outcomes. It’s about the level of certainty. While I can’t conclusively prove that there isn’t something wrong with the RNG, the data at hand points to the conclusion that it is overwhelmingly likely that there isn’t.

Draco.2806:

Shufflepants.9785:

My point is that even if there actually were a faulty RNG, it would not necessarily produce the kinds of results people are claiming

But it might.

And maybe I’m a secret government robot who is learning how to take over the world by lurking in game forums.

Theftwind.8976:

Shufflepants, there are different types of RNG used in the gaming industry such as what Deniara stated above. As someone with a degree in mathematics you should also know that by their very design some of those generators will result in a better random distribution then others.

So yes random is random when you are tossing a non-loaded, 6 sided die from a cup but weight that die on one side and it is no longer quite as random. What people are saying here is that depending on what type of rng is being used in Gw2 and exactly how that specific rng has been implemented that the die you are tossing could very well be weighted on one side. Now if you have the first die and I am using the weighted die would our results over 1,000 rolls be the same?

I already was aware of that. But that’s not my point. My point is that even if there actually were a faulty RNG, it would not necessarily produce the kinds of results people are claiming, and because many players experience normal drop rates, the number of players is so large, the intended drop rates are so small, it would take a sizable proportion of the ALL of the drop data for ALL players and some in depth analysis on that data in order to spot that there actually is a problem. But all we have in this thread is people bringing up their “feelings” which mean next to nothing in this context. I am not saying it is impossible that there is a faulty RNG, I’m saying that it is far more likely that people’s expectations and intuitions are incorrect than it is that there is a faulty RNG, and that it is completely unreasonable to think that there is one given the extremely small amount of data we as players have access to.

To give an analogy, conspiracy theories are not dumb because the scenarios claimed are impossible, they are dumb because they have cherry picked data, shaky reasoning, and the actual evidence at hand makes them incredibly unlikely.