There’s plenty of conflicting indicators but none of them are wholly reliable. Overlays like those mentioned in the OP are worth factoring into a wider estimation but on their own they are one of the worst examples of popularity or population, or any other state of the game you’re trying to estimate.
Why? The popularity of those overlays per game is the data supplied and trying to crowbar that into a rough estimate of population trends in those games is a fallacy.
In terms of surveyed customer revenues, GW2 scores highly in those particular league tables (when compared to F2P games such as Planetside 2, DOTA 2, etc., in which GW2 brings in about as much as those) which indicates a healthy state of game and is more representative of the games population than any data supplied by overlay popularity per game.
Edit: An example http://www.superdataresearch.com/blog/mmo-arpu/
It’s, as I’ve said many times, useful for detecting trends…and relative strengths. Nothing more. It’s unlikely a game is going to be massively popular on those three programs I listed (as well as google trends and reddit) and not be a popular/successful program.
The link you gave backs up what I’ve said.
The difference is these sites track progress monthly and over time you can actually see less popular games fall of those charts. In other words, but observations of those sites seem to be an indicator of trends over the long term.
actually based on most of your info, its most likely FFXIV is doing a lot better than it seems.
FFXIV includes ps3, which is not likely to hit many of the things you are tracking. They also have a large japanese population, who likely dont use, or use different programs.
Neither JP nor PS3 users are likely to be as active in reddit as well. Just to be clear for ffxiv, JP and ps3 users are part of the same service and can interact with each other, and get the same content at the same time.anyhow gw2 isnt dead, but it is not flourishing, and it is not living up to the potential of its game sales numbers. Retention is not high. FFXIV is competing with it, and i think their game sales are like 1/3rd of what gw2 has. Archage has no box sales, but the retention at this early stage is competing, i think their high number during opening week was 2 million accounts? (which is generally less actual people in F2p games)
point is not that gw2 is murdered, its that it isnt growing, its slowly declining, which is actually not normal for successful mmos at this stage of development.
FFXIV is expanding its audience, WoW expanded their audience at this time, and gained about 600k users in preparation for the next expansion.Is gw2 on the chopping block? hardly. Is gw2 thriving? nope
I don’t know if it’s not thriving or if it is. And that may well depend on your personal definition of thriving.
As for a game available on computer and console…well yes, there are more console gamers out there than computer gamers….at least that’s what developers keep telling us. It’s why they don’t care as much about the computer games if they have a console game out. We see it again and again.
So if a console/computer game sells more than just a computer game, that doesn’t prove anything. If a game is less popular on the computer, it’s less popular on the computer…no matter what the console portion is doing.
We all know having games is more formats yields more sales. But since we can’t know how GW 2 would have done if it was out on a console it’s sort of a moot point.