Guild Wars 2

I´ll play nice but i cant give any guarantees for my mount, its been acting up lately.

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

…..

Your theory has several flaws. First of all, the supply of precursors, while its definately a rare and demanded item, isnt as unelastic as you think.

I disagree and would say that precursors are relatively inelastic… but it was just part of the example… if it would make you feel better then substitute chain swords from the first Halloween event. My point remains the same. I think you are missing the general concept I was going for.

I could point you to some old threads where those issues were discussed and JS also chipped in about rich players not really having an impact on prices of luxury items and daily sales of precursors, if youre interested.

The 2012 Halloween items are expensive not because there are rich players in the game, they are expensive because their supply is limited.

Of course its driven higher because it’s limited. I specifically chose it because it represents a better example of an inelastic item to which I was referring since you decided to object to the precursor example.

The item itself is not significant, its the class of items which are rare and inelastic (or relatively so) in supply, yet desired, that I am using in my example. The specific item is irrelevant to my argument.

Now that we have agreed with one of the premisses of my argument (that there exist desired, inelastic items), you can re-read the two cases I provided.

The two cases demonstrate how the price of inelastic in demand goods can be affected by wealth distribution. So it is not MERELY the scarcity of an item that determines the end price, but how wealth is distributed among potential purchasers can impact the end price as well.

Q.E.D.?

OK, lets get back to your example.

Those 5 flippers with 1800g must first have a personal demand for that item and then they have to be willing to spend more than 10g on that item, which isnt neccessarily true. And once those flippers got theirs, the price will go down to 10g anyways.

Another think to point out is that whoever found that item and only has 10g, can only list it for a max of 200g.

Right… and as there are in reality many more rich people than 5 folks I’d say this becomes a lot more probable.

(Of course there’s also likely more than 1 or 2 some elastic item left, but I think the rich demand will be relatively high based on volume of rich people. This demand will tend to greatly greatly “outweigh” the inelastic supply given you can choose to flip these and play the market with them meaning that each rich person represents potential demand for several (or all in some cases) of these).

To use a re-world analogy, if the current sum of money were evenly distributed amongst all the current players… there is no way a chain sword could list for what it does.

Allowing methods of play which greatly exacerbate in-equal wealth distributions will contribute to make certain goods unavailable to those whom don’t play in that manner. This means that because some people play this way, others will be forced to modify their preferred play style to these same methods if they wish to purchase those goods.

From this one might argue that a more reasonably equitable potential level of profit regardless of play style chosen (skill in said play style of course factoring in) might be preferable for the majority of players.

Well, i think Anet addressed unelastic items and didnt really introduce any new ones in a very lng time and keeps reintroducing limited ones on a regular basis.

Even if there were no rich players in game, items with limited or short supply wont be available to everybody. If all players would get an equal amount of gold per hour, people who play more will be able to pay higher prices than other players.

So it doesnt make a difference if there are some filthy rich players.

That’s a bit black and white thinking of you, you should think more in terms of degrees. There are items which are relatively in-elastic for instance. And there are degrees of disparity which matter, not just simply whether disparity exists or not.

However I sense that it would not be convenient for you to concede to what I am trying to explain to you, and people will tend to believe what they wish to be true. So I will leave it for others reading to judge for themselves and refrain from trying to lead you to water any further.

Agreed, we wont agree.

But if you want, I would welcome a suggestion from you, how wealth parity could be implemented without making the game worse for the majority of the player base.

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

…..

Your theory has several flaws. First of all, the supply of precursors, while its definately a rare and demanded item, isnt as unelastic as you think.

I disagree and would say that precursors are relatively inelastic… but it was just part of the example… if it would make you feel better then substitute chain swords from the first Halloween event. My point remains the same. I think you are missing the general concept I was going for.

I could point you to some old threads where those issues were discussed and JS also chipped in about rich players not really having an impact on prices of luxury items and daily sales of precursors, if youre interested.

The 2012 Halloween items are expensive not because there are rich players in the game, they are expensive because their supply is limited.

Of course its driven higher because it’s limited. I specifically chose it because it represents a better example of an inelastic item to which I was referring since you decided to object to the precursor example.

The item itself is not significant, its the class of items which are rare and inelastic (or relatively so) in supply, yet desired, that I am using in my example. The specific item is irrelevant to my argument.

Now that we have agreed with one of the premisses of my argument (that there exist desired, inelastic items), you can re-read the two cases I provided.

The two cases demonstrate how the price of inelastic in demand goods can be affected by wealth distribution. So it is not MERELY the scarcity of an item that determines the end price, but how wealth is distributed among potential purchasers can impact the end price as well.

Q.E.D.?

OK, lets get back to your example.

Those 5 flippers with 1800g must first have a personal demand for that item and then they have to be willing to spend more than 10g on that item, which isnt neccessarily true. And once those flippers got theirs, the price will go down to 10g anyways.

Another think to point out is that whoever found that item and only has 10g, can only list it for a max of 200g.

Right… and as there are in reality many more rich people than 5 folks I’d say this becomes a lot more probable.

(Of course there’s also likely more than 1 or 2 some elastic item left, but I think the rich demand will be relatively high based on volume of rich people. This demand will tend to greatly greatly “outweigh” the inelastic supply given you can choose to flip these and play the market with them meaning that each rich person represents potential demand for several (or all in some cases) of these).

To use a re-world analogy, if the current sum of money were evenly distributed amongst all the current players… there is no way a chain sword could list for what it does.

Allowing methods of play which greatly exacerbate in-equal wealth distributions will contribute to make certain goods unavailable to those whom don’t play in that manner. This means that because some people play this way, others will be forced to modify their preferred play style to these same methods if they wish to purchase those goods.

From this one might argue that a more reasonably equitable potential level of profit regardless of play style chosen (skill in said play style of course factoring in) might be preferable for the majority of players.

Well, i think Anet addressed unelastic items and didnt really introduce any new ones in a very lng time and keeps reintroducing limited ones on a regular basis.

Even if there were no rich players in game, items with limited or short supply wont be available to everybody. If all players would get an equal amount of gold per hour, people who play more will be able to pay higher prices than other players.

So it doesnt make a difference if there are some filthy rich players.

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

…..

Your theory has several flaws. First of all, the supply of precursors, while its definately a rare and demanded item, isnt as unelastic as you think.

I disagree and would say that precursors are relatively inelastic… but it was just part of the example… if it would make you feel better then substitute chain swords from the first Halloween event. My point remains the same. I think you are missing the general concept I was going for.

I could point you to some old threads where those issues were discussed and JS also chipped in about rich players not really having an impact on prices of luxury items and daily sales of precursors, if youre interested.

The 2012 Halloween items are expensive not because there are rich players in the game, they are expensive because their supply is limited.

Of course its driven higher because it’s limited. I specifically chose it because it represents a better example of an inelastic item to which I was referring since you decided to object to the precursor example.

The item itself is not significant, its the class of items which are rare and inelastic (or relatively so) in supply, yet desired, that I am using in my example. The specific item is irrelevant to my argument.

Now that we have agreed with one of the premisses of my argument (that there exist desired, inelastic items), you can re-read the two cases I provided.

The two cases demonstrate how the price of inelastic in demand goods can be affected by wealth distribution. So it is not MERELY the scarcity of an item that determines the end price, but how wealth is distributed among potential purchasers can impact the end price as well.

Q.E.D.?

OK, lets get back to your example.

Those 5 flippers with 1800g must first have a personal demand for that item and then they have to be willing to spend more than 10g on that item, which isnt neccessarily true. And once those flippers got theirs, the price will go down to 10g anyways.

Another think to point out is that whoever found that item and only has 10g, can only list it for a max of 200g.

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

…..

Your theory has several flaws. First of all, the supply of precursors, while its definately a rare and demanded item, isnt as unelastic as you think.

I disagree and would say that precursors are relatively inelastic… but it was just part of the example… if it would make you feel better then substitute chain swords from the first Halloween event. My point remains the same. I think you are missing the general concept I was going for.

I could point you to some old threads where those issues were discussed and JS also chipped in about rich players not really having an impact on prices of luxury items and daily sales of precursors, if youre interested.

The 2012 Halloween items are expensive not because there are rich players in the game, they are expensive because their supply is limited.

For those intersted in promotion calculations and how to best use your spirit shards, this is the tool that i find most efficient. Make sure to check the filters to find what you want.

https://www.gw2shinies.com/alchemy.php

Sephas.8793:

the other thing you can do is take the extra Mithril and Elder wood and promote them in the Mystic Forge.

At current prices, you make a couple of gold LOSS per promotion to ori/ancient, so rather sell t5 and buy t6.

there will be ori and ancient nodes in maguuma and i think you can also get both from lvl 80 map reward tracks

Roy Cronacher.1576:

Hey all,

As some of you may have seen in raids during the last BWE, we were trying out something new with player minions. Basically, in that final BWE, player minions did not take damage from boss attacks. We thought that made minion-based professions feel so much better in combat, but that change did expose some problems such as minions being able to withstand a damaging attack indefinitely.

We wanted minions to not die left and right, but we did want them to have some attrition instead of being completely immune to attacks. This problem is mainly prevalent in PvE as we have huge attacks all over the place that are meant to be dodged by players but unfortunately for minions, they can’t dodge.

After reviewing BWE results, we wanted to create a better system to accomplish this as a global change for minions. To do that, we made it so that unless a minion is specifically targeted by a creature, they will be dealt drastically reduced damage and condition duration from attacks. Currently, this is set to 95% reduction as we feel like it’s a good starting place, but we’ll continue to monitor and adjust it. This means if your minion gains agro from a creature it will still take full damage, but if there is area effect damage hitting your minion, instead of usually killing it instantly, it will slowly attrition it down.

We felt like minions were in a good place for PvP so we didn’t want to change them there for now. Thus, the interaction between players and minions in PvP combat will remain the same.

The change is for all player minions, this includes things like engineer turrets and ranger spirits as well. This will be in for HoT Launch in a few days.

Does this apply to my mount as well? Its pretty annoying getting knocked off of it when riding while the other players in my squad do the grunt work for my rewards.

Unseenchaos.7036:

Another question, do you think the price of these Trick or Treat bags increase or decrease when Halloween hits?

decrease

Essence Snow.3194:

Your flaws were using assumptions as they were the norm…..in your case specifically that all rich players will forge b/c they are smart. That ignores the consideration of the time and effort it takes (which you very well know).

It simply shows how players can have a disproportionate impact on other players via wealth gained from only a few specific playstyles. In other words, there are “OP” playstyles when it comes to the economy. Anywhere else in the game something being “OP” is not tolerated for long as it’ll be balanced for the overall benefit of the game in general.

If you take me for an example, I only forged bolt and the juggernaut for myself. More than half of my friends list forged more.

Please explain, how i can be significant to the game economy, if a hundful of average joes can have a bigger demand than me over time.

Essence Snow.3194:

You made some of the very same flaws in your reply that you said the other poster made.

That said….didn’t you say you bought over 100k gems with gold? Wouldn’t that be a perfect example of how one “rich” player has a disproportionate impact on other players than those that don’t? (seeing as it would raise the gem to gold ratio for others)

edit: and yes I know some that use rl cash would benefit if the convert to gold

Mr Snow!

I will grace you with a reply as you actually managed to write a response consisting of more of the usual 3 off topic lines that I was used to by you most of the time in the past.

First of all, if you think I made the same flaws as the poster that I dared compete with, please tell us what those might be.

Considering your main issue, i probably bought 100k gems with gold, maybe it was 50k maybe 150k, it doesnt really matter to your central point, that i had an impact on the gold to gem ratio.

I just checked in game, my age is 1150 days, pretty much like anybody that played this game since launch, just like you. Do you really think that 1k gems exchanged for gold actually made a difference any day? Do you really think that the gold/gem ratio would look any different now than without me playing the game?

And even if i did contribute significantly to the gold/gem ratio, is it so bad for the game in general? In the end, I would have only raised the g/g ratio, making it more attractive to players to purchase gems for gold.

Hey OP, just some general feedback and maybe to some other people posting in this thread.
I am not sure if OPs original intent was to learn more about virtual game economy data analysis or data research/programming for it.
If the latter is the case, it might be helpful to ask a mod to move this thread to the API Development Subforum https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/community/api.
If you are into programming spreadsheets or websites, you should definately chekc it out, its the only subforum that got a CDI (Corrabolative Development Initiative) ongoing since the start of the year and threads on the front page without a dev response are are in minority.

shion.2084:

…..

Both your cases probably have been the status quo in the first couple of months, when the game launched and the economy still tried to find equilibrium. But since then, due to its global access, market forces have proven you wrong.
In case A, the probability of someone else wanting that precursor drops with the decision of the finder finding and deciding not to want it. Which means that its price will probably be less than 100g.

Case B has several flaws. First of all, those that made 1.8k gold from flipping and could afford to pay it for a pre are smart enough to know that forging a pre will be much cheaper due to the market forces I tried to explain in my previous post, so they wouldnt put in a buy order (or buy directly) in the first place. And even, if they did, once they got their pre, their demand will tend towards zero, leaving 95 aj´s to determine the value.

I know its an easy excuse for many players to blame rich players for inflated prices and for the most part, I have been what many players consider rich since launch because i trade alot and i am good at it.
And your general issue isnt a new one, it has been brought up repeatedly since launch and I have discussed it many times in the last 3 years. Of course I am biased because I am a big time trader but in the end, I re-evaluated my place in the economy many times and I came to the conclusion that my impact on the economy is just a fracture of many what many people think it is, including myself.
I might have accumulated riches beyond believe of Average Joe, and I am quite vocal about it on the forums but in my 3 years since launch, I came across so many hardcore farmers, players, bots (indirectly) and gold sellers that i came to the conclusion that even if I have the means of bullying markets, I dont do it because in most cases, it isnt profitable and that my impact on the game economy is rather insignificant. Even if I have 100 or 1000 times more gold than AJ, personally I have very little little demand for what what AJ wants and if me and AJ wants it, its him controlling supply, even though he doesnt know it.

shion.2084:

…..

Your theory has several flaws. First of all, the supply of precursors, while its definately a rare and demanded item, isnt as unelastic as you think.

Lets recap where pres have come from since launch ( I know this example will be obsolete, once HoT goes online). For me, there are three main faucets:

• Random Loot Drops
• Target Forging
  *Random Forge Drop

Random Loot Drops cant really be influenced by the player base, I guess their supply is pretty steady compared to player activity. The only way, this droprate can be significantly altered, is more player activity but with that also demand for pres rises.

Random Forge Drops is what i call Average Joe getting a precursor while throwing 4 rares into the forge that he got from the world boss train or even someone who throws as many rares or exotics into the forge until he gets the precursor that he wants for personal use (as this one wont enter the tp)

Target forging is what i call people that forge precursors for the sole purpose of selling them with a profit. I have done this occasionally, having crafted about 40 precursors for resale. I know that compared to the biggest players in this market, my sample size of 40 pres is very low but i guess on average, i forged at least 100 times more precursors than Average Joe.

Of course, different precursors have different demand. For low demand pres, the supply form random loot and forge drops is actually enough to satisfy demand and for high demand pres its not.

That where target forgers come in. Those who do it (at least thats how i done it when i done it), check the average value of the weapons (rare and exotic) of the corresponding pre and the price of the pre. Personally, i cant think of a time when it has been more profitable to throw in exotics (crafted or bought) rather than rares. And rare weapons are crafted with 3 main components, elder wood, mithril and t5 fine mats (including snowflakes, excluding vials of blood and karka shells).

Lets assume, 1 of each precursor drops per day, for underwat erweapons or foci, the demand is only 1 every 2 days, for the legend or a gs, the demand is 2 per day. For the in Prices for in demand pres go up and target forgers start forging.
Once you reached lvl 80, like the mayority of the player base, you wont get around looting elder wood, mithril and t5 fine mats. In fact, those mats will be the foundation of your wealth generated by selling your loot.
And those ressources are being forged into the most demanded precursors, so a scarcity with unreasonable prices cant really happen, as the general player base keeps producing those ressources, unless they all decide to stop playing. Those ressources will always go towards the priciest precursor.
Of course, if profits for forging precursors become too big, demand for t5 mats shoots up as well and so do their prices. But that also benefits the general player, who has demand for buying a precursor, because the average value of its daily loot rises.
These days, you get 250 copper for one mithril ore, one elder wood log and one t5 fine mat used in crafting cheap rares, in July last year, you got 350 copper.
So last year, Average Joe got more for his most common loot drops and therefore could have afforded higher pre prices

Another post that i wanted to respond to in another thread but would have gone off topic and derailed it. I will answer to it with the next post due to character limit:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

I think its rediculous, if someone complains that he doesnt make as much gold from his loot as i do as a trader because you have the choice to offer your loot for basically any price you want.

Just list it at double or triple the current lowest listing and wait until it sells.

I do the same.

Was this in response to me? If so I can tell you that my complaint wasn’t that I don’t make as much gold from loot as a trader would. I was pointing out the consequences of allowing trading and farming activities on those whom would prefer no to do so.

It wasnt a response, it was a statement, otherwise I would have quoted you.

My appologies then.

You are correct… if they were to make a complaint along those lines it should be that the method you are currently able to use in order to generate wealth disparity is overly effective and unbalancing to the game and thus negatively impacting their game play experience in some of the “end” aspects of the game perhaps?

They might legitimately wish for a combative skill equivalent that could generate these kinds of returns for roughly the same effort invested. (of course then they’d have to be willing to accept riks, such as the old armour repair charges).

How does my wealth unbalance the game and negatively impact their gameplay?

Just because i might have 100 times more gold than other players doesnt mean i consume 100 times more items than the reguar player.

Once I unlocked a skin, i have little need to buy another one, for example, so I am not competing for that skin anymore, even though i could afford to buy 100 of them.

Anything i do or have achieved until now can be done by anybody, who invests as much time as me into it.

If people want to earn lots of dosh with their skills, they can set up competitions for dungeon speed runs, jumping puzzles or pvp tournaments, where everybody chips in with some gold for the winners cash purse.

Most people just have a problem with the fact that they have to invest in order to be able to to earn mad cash and there is a risk of losing it involved.

The issue becomes apparent with items of higher rarity and inelastic supply. Even though you being rich only want 1 precursor, and there are 10 others like you who are wealthy… and there are 2 precursors total…. you get the following situation I’d previously made an example of….

“Case A) 100 Players play the game. Every player has 100G. Total money in the game 10,000.

Someone finds a precursor they can’t use and decide to sell it, only 1 or two exist…. the likely price of that pre that people are going to be willing to spend is not much more than 100G.

In general, rarer goods are going to top out at around 100G in this scenario.

Case B ) You have TP flippers. They are far wealthier than those who’ve been spending the majority of their time playing event/dungeon content (what I’d call the game).

100 Players toatl. 95 players have 10 G. 5 players have 1810 gold. Total money in game 10,000G.

Now one of those guys doing events finds a precursor, there are only 1 or 2…. do you think the price that the market will be willing to buy for will still cap out at 100 G max?

…. What they Don’t mention is that they can make the ones you really want and are very limited in quantity can be made astronomically higher.

TLDR;
Inflation is emphatically NOT only due to gold being added. But also a matter of scarcity of an item and unequal wealth distribution. Among other factors (see the aside)

(edited 2 days ago by shion.2084)

2 days ago

"

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

I think its rediculous, if someone complains that he doesnt make as much gold from his loot as i do as a trader because you have the choice to offer your loot for basically any price you want.

Just list it at double or triple the current lowest listing and wait until it sells.

I do the same.

Was this in response to me? If so I can tell you that my complaint wasn’t that I don’t make as much gold from loot as a trader would. I was pointing out the consequences of allowing trading and farming activities on those whom would prefer no to do so.

It wasnt a response, it was a statement, otherwise I would have quoted you.

My appologies then.

You are correct… if they were to make a complaint along those lines it should be that the method you are currently able to use in order to generate wealth disparity is overly effective and unbalancing to the game and thus negatively impacting their game play experience in some of the “end” aspects of the game perhaps?

They might legitimately wish for a combative skill equivalent that could generate these kinds of returns for roughly the same effort invested. (of course then they’d have to be willing to accept riks, such as the old armour repair charges).

How does my wealth unbalance the game and negatively impact their gameplay?

Just because i might have 100 times more gold than other players doesnt mean i consume 100 times more items than the reguar player.

Once I unlocked a skin, i have little need to buy another one, for example, so I am not competing for that skin anymore, even though i could afford to buy 100 of them.

Anything i do or have achieved until now can be done by anybody, who invests as much time as me into it.

If people want to earn lots of dosh with their skills, they can set up competitions for dungeon speed runs, jumping puzzles or pvp tournaments, where everybody chips in with some gold for the winners cash purse.

Most people just have a problem with the fact that they have to invest in order to be able to to earn mad cash and there is a risk of losing it involved.

The issue becomes apparent with items of higher rarity and inelastic supply. Even though you being rich only want 1 precursor, and there are 10 others like you who are wealthy… and there are 2 precursors total…. you get the following situation I’d previously made an example of….

“Case A) 100 Players play the game. Every player has 100G. Total money in the game 10,000.

Someone finds a precursor they can’t use and decide to sell it, only 1 or two exist…. the likely price of that pre that people are going to be willing to spend is not much more than 100G.

In general, rarer goods are going to top out at around 100G in this scenario.

Case B ) You have TP flippers. They are far wealthier than those who’ve been spending the majority of their time playing event/dungeon content (what I’d call the game).

100 Players toatl. 95 players have 10 G. 5 players have 1810 gold. Total money in game 10,000G.

Now one of those guys doing events finds a precursor, there are only 1 or 2…. do you think the price that the market will be willing to buy for will still cap out at 100 G max?

…. What they Don’t mention is that they can make the ones you really want and are very limited in quantity can be made astronomically higher.

TLDR;
Inflation is emphatically NOT only due to gold being added. But also a matter of scarcity of an item and unequal wealth distribution. Among other factors (see the aside)

(edited 2 days ago by shion.2084)

2 days ago

"

You bring up 2 good examples but both have flaws. I would like to respond to them but i think this discussion is going fairly off topic and i actually really like the effort the OP put into collecting and showcasing his data (even though i dont neccessarily agree with his conclusions), so i dont want to further derail this thread.

I gather from your posting history that you are a fairly new player, so i guess you dont know too much about the history of the game economy or are familiar with John Smith, the game economist, or me, who has been very involved in the game economy (and active on the forums about it).

Many months ago, I would have mostly agreed with your post but since then, i learned that it includes some misconceptions, most of my issues based on personal experience and statements from JS in another thread, that i opened last year in july.

So i gonna paste your post to that thread and respond there.

Here is the link to it:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/I-have-a-question-about-the-economy/page/21#post5613723

Menadena.7482:

Now I am curious. What would you need that many mithril ingots for?

The speed always seems fast to me, especially if you compare it to the RL process it is emulating. Sure, a lot of something takes longer but it normally would.

I was writing a response to your post but went off topic a bit and decided to post it in my forum blog about the economy.

If you want to read, you can read it here:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/I-have-a-question-about-the-economy/page/21#post5625411

Menadena.7482:

Now I am curious. What would you need that many mithril ingots for?

The speed always seems fast to me, especially if you compare it to the RL process it is emulating. Sure, a lot of something takes longer but it normally would.

I intended to post this as a response to a post in a different thread but i went a little off topic, so i decided to post this here for info or discussion.

9k mithril ingots is a laugh.

There were times, when I forged 1 precursor on average per day, crafting my own rare weapons to throw into the forge.
A rare 2h weapon usually takes 18 refined t5 mats, most 1h weapons 17 and you need roughly 2k rares per precursor. Thats an average 35k refined mats per day.

I made an average profit of over 300g per precursor, a good haul for a day of playing GW2.
I would have forged 2 per day but i couldnt because refining took so much time.
But in the end, most of my profit was due to the fact, that i refined so much myself.
Instead of putting in buy orders for mithril, elder wood and t5 fine mats, I also could have put in buy orders or mithril ingots, elder planks, mithril plated dowels, inscriptions and weapon components like blades, hilts, shafts. It might have cost me a little more but i could probably still have made profit with those prices but probably more in the range of 100-200g per forged pre. Most of the time, I even put in buy orders for the crafting materials, when the highest bid wasnt unreasonable but the problem is that the more crafting went into an item (unrefined-refined-dowel/hilt/blade-insignia-weapon) the slower my buy orders would fill. If I would only rely on those buy orders, I wouldnt have been able to craft 2k weapons per day.

Basically any kind of profit made on or through the tp is earned by providing some kind of service or convenience to another player. The top 2 services are providing instant sell options for seller (buy orders) and instant buy options (listings). Most services are just some kind of in game labour (just like farmers do), salvaging, opening loot bags, crafting, forging. Most of my profits are based on doing clicks that most other people dont want to do. I buy up small portions of that labour from other players and complete it in bulk because that way its more efficient. A small example:

Some player gets a random lootbag which is worth 5s on the tp. He doesnt know what the lootbag drops and how high the chances are that whatever he gets will be worth more than 5s. He could do research on the wiki to determine that chance and decide wether its worth the risk to open it. But that takes time and problaby isnt worth it to the player, even if we might get 1-2s more on average from the whatever is in the bag.
Opening the bag also takes time, it might not be much but if he has multiple bags, selling the different drops will also take more clicks on the tp to sell.

Now I put in buy orders for that bag (at 4s) because i done my research and know the average value of the loot drops is 6s. I just wait until I have 1000 of those lootbags and open them altogether. Whatever I get will most likely be much closer to those 6s than whatever someone gets who only opens 5 lootbags.
Thats because its the rare drops that raise the average value of the loot table and I am more likely to get those with a sample size of 1000 compared to a sample size of 5.
And if I can find 200 people who sell me 5 loot bags each, i will spend way less time opening them and listing all the loot they they will have to put in with a combined effort.

Refining or crafting is no different.

Its a service provided, it might not be worth it for someone who just has a couple of mithril, elder and t5 fine mats left over that he wants to get rid of, to run to a crafting station, refine a couple dozen mats, craft some components and weapons and sell them on the tp because he only gets a couple handful of silver more for the crafted weapon but when you craft 2k weapons per day, this small profit adds up.

Edit: Just click on Medanenas name on the top of my quote to get to the original thread.

8 am

Just a flesh wound.3589:

DennisChrDk.9823:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

shion.2084:

So yup I saw the dragon hunter preview and bought a chaos bow… because they had bows and shot light arrows… and I guess they’d want a matching bow. This is what I’ve been lowered to. I have an engineer… couldn’t even use the kitten bow on it. And I imagine a lot of skins are bought on speculation… I find it extraordinarily hard to believe that a good number of the chaos skins, when they came back at around 100G, weren’t purchased with the specific intent to resell later.

Have you ever done the math on how much that bow cost the original seller to get?

Assume he used 30 keys to get it. (Current average to get scraps. Past average was 50 keys but we’ll say he was lucky and only used 30).
If he bought keys then 30 keys is 2520 gems. (At 25 keys = 2100 gems = $26.25€)
Assume he bought it when it came out on Aug 13, 2014. At that time 100 gems was ~15 gold 50 silver.

That means 2520 gems was worth ~390 gold.

You got a steal at 100 gold because people don’t sit down and figure out how much the weapons are actually worth, plus they undercut each other.

Well that’s kind of an unfair comparison. How many of the weapons on the TP are actually from players who have brought gems and used thoes to buy keys?

I would guess that most are from players keyfarming (though it has been nerfed). So the average price would be way lower.

It’s not free either to do a key farm. Not if you compare the time to do a key run against doing a dungeon for example. Back before the first nerf (and at the time he bought his chaos skin) it took about 50 keys to get one ticket. Let’s say 15 minutes from start to finish, complete (this includes character creation and cleaning out inventory afterwards)

15 min X 50 runs (on average) = 750 minutes = 12.5 hours
So, 12.5 hours of doing key runs back then (on average) to sell one skin for 100 gold.
12.5 hours doing key runs for that 100 gold is a fair amount of time spent.

You are neglecting all the other 140 items he got from the chests…

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

I think its rediculous, if someone complains that he doesnt make as much gold from his loot as i do as a trader because you have the choice to offer your loot for basically any price you want.

Just list it at double or triple the current lowest listing and wait until it sells.

I do the same.

Was this in response to me? If so I can tell you that my complaint wasn’t that I don’t make as much gold from loot as a trader would. I was pointing out the consequences of allowing trading and farming activities on those whom would prefer no to do so.

It wasnt a response, it was a statement, otherwise I would have quoted you.

My appologies then.

You are correct… if they were to make a complaint along those lines it should be that the method you are currently able to use in order to generate wealth disparity is overly effective and unbalancing to the game and thus negatively impacting their game play experience in some of the “end” aspects of the game perhaps?

They might legitimately wish for a combative skill equivalent that could generate these kinds of returns for roughly the same effort invested. (of course then they’d have to be willing to accept riks, such as the old armour repair charges).

How does my wealth unbalance the game and negatively impact their gameplay?

Just because i might have 100 times more gold than other players doesnt mean i consume 100 times more items than the reguar player.

Once I unlocked a skin, i have little need to buy another one, for example, so I am not competing for that skin anymore, even though i could afford to buy 100 of them.

Anything i do or have achieved until now can be done by anybody, who invests as much time as me into it.

If people want to earn lots of dosh with their skills, they can set up competitions for dungeon speed runs, jumping puzzles or pvp tournaments, where everybody chips in with some gold for the winners cash purse.

Most people just have a problem with the fact that they have to invest in order to be able to to earn mad cash and there is a risk of losing it involved.

shion.2084:

Wanze.8410:

I think its rediculous, if someone complains that he doesnt make as much gold from his loot as i do as a trader because you have the choice to offer your loot for basically any price you want.

Just list it at double or triple the current lowest listing and wait until it sells.

I do the same.

Was this in response to me? If so I can tell you that my complaint wasn’t that I don’t make as much gold from loot as a trader would. I was pointing out the consequences of allowing trading and farming activities on those whom would prefer no to do so.

It wasnt a response, it was a statement, otherwise I would have quoted you.

Ryan.9387:

It feels like a needless waste of time especially when refining stacks of materials.

What would be the point of refining, if it was instant?

Basically the whole game is a needless waste of time.

You should get a title for wearing a base cap and wings.

I think it took me 2 hours or so to get the thirst slayer achi with left click bound to mouse wheel.

how about you just check your wardrobe for skins you want.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Suggestions-Gemstore-Items/page/64#post5610407

Please post in this existing thread.

Also, grenth hood is a wintersday item, so you need 6 more weeks of patience.

zombyturtle.5980:

Sidenti.6035:

Never had any of those problems when I ran a merchant stall on my old MUD, but maybe you’ve just been playing some awful games with some awful people. -Sid

It was a F2P mmo and was quite awful so maybe some of the problems I listed wouldnt occur in GW2. You cant deny it would destroy the economy and cause insane inflation though.

It would only cause inflation, if Anet decided not to impose a 15% tax on gold exchanged through direct p2p trading. And if that was the same tax as on the tp, i doubt that this feature would be very popular.

Sidenti.6035:

Wanze.8410:

Sidenti.6035:

Some sellers, such as myself, act as wholesalers. I’ve undercut people by as much as 2g because I make my money on volume – not flipping. -Sid

Bys definition, you cant be a wholesaler on tp because you cant influence, wether regular customers or other retailers/businesses buy your listings.

At my volume, I’m practically guaranteed to not be dealing with Joe Sixpack. The people who buy my lots are almost certainly resalers – or incredibly dumb people who are allergic to profit.

Spread the wealth around. It’ll come back to ya. -Sid

So let me get this straight. You undercut by 2g with such a volume that only resalers buy your stuff and regular customers stay away from it?

Sidenti.6035:

Some sellers, such as myself, act as wholesalers. I’ve undercut people by as much as 2g because I make my money on volume – not flipping. -Sid

Bys definition, you cant be a wholesaler on tp because you cant influence, wether regular customers or other retailers/businesses buy your listings.

Wing.8326:

Wanze.8410:

Technically, they already lost their listing fee, when they listed it. It doesnt matter, how fast or slow it sells.

How fast an item sells does matter as the active buying and selling prices change over time. An item may be worth 1.5g, so you list it at 1.5g. If it doesn’t sell fast enough and the value of the item changes to 1g over a week then you will never sell that item. You would lose your listing fee and have to put up another listing fee if you wanted to sell it again for 1g.

In that case, it never was a 1.5g value in the first place when you listed it and just because the value goes down to 1g temporarily doesnt mean it wont go back up in future.

quaniesan.8497:

Is it a good idea to waive the listing fee until the item is either sold or when the player remove it from TP? Suppose you got something that can be sold for 1k gold, but darn now you gotta wait till you find that 150g just to list it. I understand listing fee acts like a quasi gold-sink, but postponing it won’t make any dent on that purpose, will it? either way the player will have to pay that amount, and moving that charge to the end of the transaction makes it easier to sell.

So you mean i can just list the 100 stacks of leather in my vault for 1g each on the tp and store them there without a fee?

Wing.8326:

Sidenti.6035:

I’m not interested in reducing the sellers’ exposure to bad listing decisions. It’s the sellers’ responsibility to know their markets. It’s not ANet’s place to protect players from making poor decisions.

You’re right, ANet doesn’t have to protect any sellers from losing their listing fees. It’s probably not in their interests to reduce the gold sink from lost listing fees.

I’m not interesting in that kind of thing though. I just want people to check my logic and help me realise things I wouldn’t be able to by myself.

Technically, they already lost their listing fee, when they listed it. It doesnt matter, how fast or slow it sells.

Wing.8326:

Wanze.8410:

But your algorithms dont change supply and demand, nor do they reduce listings on the tp. They just juggle sales around from one seller to the other.

That’s the beauty of it. The use of some different algorithms doesn’t change the number of sales but it leaves fewer old posts, with people losing their listing fees, and more newer posts at the updated price after a change in the item’s value.

MAybe I didnt read your op right but how does your algorithm get rid of listings over lowest listing?

Wing.8326:

This post isn’t about the 1 copper undercut. It’s about investigating alternative algorithms that can help reduce the number of people left out of pocket in listing fees due to the changing prices of items.

The 1 copper undercut is key to the game’s economy in changing prices based on supply and demand.

But your algorithms dont change supply and demand, nor do they reduce listings on the tp. They just juggle sales around from one seller to the other.

I also dont see a problem with plenty of listings on the trading post for any given item, even at prices way higher than the current lowest one because they act as buffer for price spikes.

I dont see the point of combating undercutting by 1c when listing as it brings the prices closer to equilibrium.

If you are listing something you not only have to consider what people are willing to pay for it, you also have to consider for what people are willing to sell it.

Just posting here to say I told you so over 2 months ago.

Wanze.8410:

…. i think, the old gift of exploration will not be needed in order to craft one of the new legendaries. I think its much more likely that you will need a new GoE, which is awarded for completing all the new zones….

I think its rediculous, if someone complains that he doesnt make as much gold from his loot as i do as a trader because you have the choice to offer your loot for basically any price you want.

Just list it at double or triple the current lowest listing and wait until it sells.

I do the same.

Lazuli.2098:

PaxTheGreatOne.9472:

…
Major get forged 9 out of 10 times and
…

I didn’t know this. Where can I find the recipes using these?

You dont need to learn recipes to use the forge. Just take 4 minor or mayor runes or sigils and throw them in the forge.

Sidenti.6035:

…am I the only one, then, who runs content purely because I enjoy the content I run, and not so much for whatever pixelated nonsense I can potentially get at the end of said content?

Because if I am, then perhaps I’ve been going about enjoying content the wrong way. -Sid

I actually trade as much as i do because its fun to me.
I dont really need the gold anymore but its a good measure of success for what i do.

PaxTheGreatOne.9472:

Most time : Celestial/WupWup’s

• Timegated only 1 Charged Crystal a day… not available on the TP. you need 5 crystals for each weaponor armor piece, making a full celestial build generally 1 to 2 months of charging crystals, Which does give ample time to farm the base mats (quartz crystals) in dry top (you need 25 a day to charge them….. If you are lucky your home instance quartz node drops a charged one, never happened to me in either the zephyrite map, or dry top…

Most resources: Zealot/Keeper’s

• 1st: recipe for EXOTIC insignia’s costs 140 gold, as you need these for both exotic AND ascended gear…. most recipe’s are cheaper, Heavy armor keeper’s recipe’s are more expensive then crafting an actual piece, generally making it cheaper to make a verata’s armor piece and convert it to Keepers with a Zealot insignia… Weapons are a kitteneaper… Yes, a bit (is a small amount) cheaper yes… Stupid cat system needs to breed kitens everywhere….
• 2nd: Watchwork Mechanisms cost 14-15 gold each and you’ll need 6 for an armor and 1 for each weapon, closest second would be powerfull blood with 3-3.5 gold per Insignia/inscription…. which isn’t really comparable..

Done.

2nd most expensive is actually sentinel with around 10g (for the whole inscription/insignia) and then celestial. Apart form the timegate, 5 charged quartz per armor/weapon require 125 quartz crystals. At currently 6 silver, its more than double as expensive as zerker.

candace.7069:

Anything that requires charged quartz…since you can only get one a day.

For sinister you can buy the charged sheets of ambrite (which require charged quartz) on the tp, so no timegate there.

Maize balm

Maaason.5843:

Wanze.8410:

Maaason.5843:

So, i think it would be a Great idea for Guild Wars 2 to have a player Inspection option so you can look at your friends/guild/random players, whomevers gear, and maybe a little side note if they have it Transmuted so we could know what they have their item looking like
but mainly id just like to be able to see peoples gear, for the soul purpose that we could know how much better someones gear is so that we might be able to ask them where they got it or how they got it
i believe that if we see someones items it will persuade us into getting better gear

My mount doesnt like its cape skin to be inspected, so i told Anet not to implement it.

so who cares about your mount?

My mount cares and Anet seems sympathetic of the notion.

You´re welcome.

Maaason.5843:

So, i think it would be a Great idea for Guild Wars 2 to have a player Inspection option so you can look at your friends/guild/random players, whomevers gear, and maybe a little side note if they have it Transmuted so we could know what they have their item looking like
but mainly id just like to be able to see peoples gear, for the soul purpose that we could know how much better someones gear is so that we might be able to ask them where they got it or how they got it
i believe that if we see someones items it will persuade us into getting better gear

My mount doesnt like its cape skin to be inspected, so i told Anet not to implement it.

Scoundrel.2139:

Wanze.8410:

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

Those who know the answer to your question, can’t tell you. Those who try to tell you, don’t know. It’s all speculation.

I’ve stored several types of containers in the past, in anticipation of a massive game upheaval. I’ve “guessed” correctly one out of four times. (That sounds bad, until you remember that if I guess correctly this time, it would be 2/5, which is as close to 50-50 as I could get with only five tries.)

tl;dr flip a coin: if you’re right, great; if you’re wrong, you can blame an inanimate object for your losses.

Actually, 3/5 is as close to 50-50 as 2/5.

What do i win?

Actually, you don’t win. :P
as I could get with only five tries as Was Na has tried four times with only one more try remaining, with the one success, 2/5 is as close as he can get, with the one extra

I do win. Because he then would have said the last or the 5th try, not with 5 tries

Just a short reminder on where i would like this thread to be heading and a little history.
It got nearly 3000 new views since the start of the week and I dont expect anybody to read through over 1000 posts to find out what this thread is about.

I started the thread in the old BLTC Subforum, where usually discussions about the economy, the trading post and the gem store were being held. Its original intent was to create a space where people could ask questions about the economy and John Smith, the Game Economist, was very active in responding. Since then it has been a great ressource of dev responses to commonly asked questions. With the reorganisation of the forums earlier this year, the BLTC subforum got merged with the general discussions forum. Even though the thread got stickied, traffic became very low (why do people never read stickies?) and it was unstickied a couple of weeks ago.
As feedback from JS has also subsided, I plan to use this thread more or less as a personal blog, where I will post some personal opinions about the economy, during the next couple of weeks around HoT release.
If you have any questions about the economy that you would like me to answer or know my opinion about, feel free to post.

Ryou.2398:

Devata.6589:

Wanze.8410:

Devata.6589:

Ryou.2398:

I think its funny people are claiming there has never been an mmorpg to reply on mats and trades, there are a few much older mmorpgs that did this and the most recent one is ryzom, I also think wurm does this as well and wurm is an mmorpg with nothing but crafting, and im not entirely sure but wasnt swg kind of like a hybrid of this?

In everquest 1 days before the bazaar you had to trade items or money, and it worked out.

On the notion of mats. What I see in GW2 is that many (while not all) T6 mats are pretty hard and grindy to get.

This might also be true in some other MMORPG but in my experience (the other MMORPS I players) they highest tier mats where not hard to get at all. The highest tier just did mean you had to be in the highest level maps to get them.

The items you crafted using those mats where hard not because the mats where hard to get but 1: Because they were the highest level items, so you first had to level your craft up and 2: It usually required one item, like a recipe or basically a precursor that was hard to get.

So the rarity came from this one item, not the mats, and that one item usually had a pretty direct approach of getting it (for example, it dropped from one specific boss).

That is imho also the best way to do it.. It reduces the grind for the mats, and every item you craft requires another recipe / precursor what sends you to another part of the world / other content to collect it.

Then on the notion of requiring trading. Here you have a similar problem. Why are you required to trade? Because apparently it’s close to impossible to really directly get the item you are really after. Maybe because you can only buy it with some currency (like gem-store items) or because it’s a very rare general drop (drops in many places but with a very low-drop-rate). So now you are again required to grind for something you do not want (something that is junk for you (or a currency itself, but that does that not involve trading)) to sell it to somebody who wants it, to then buy the item you want.

So the way it’s implemented also this creates the most boring type of grind there is.

So both examples help to create grind, and if there is anything we need less of, it’s this type of grind.

It might be great ways to control the economy, but it’s not great for the game-play.

Well, GW2 and the TP give the the opportunity to intead of grinding, play whatever content you like and use its rewards to get closer to the goal of acquiring whatever you want (as long as its tradeable).

On paper yeah. In reality it means doing anything other than whatever rewards you the best (optimal) basically means you are punishing yourself for doing that (you are getting punished for playing the way you want). And in practice that means (as GW2 proofs) a lot of grind… Not because people like it, but because it’s the most viable way to get to their goals.

To make it a bid worse, that grind also means the prices of items are going up, making the less profitable ways even worse, and with new items coming in all the time, you would only get further and further behind.

So it sounds great on paper, but it’s not how it works in reality.

Not to mention that directly working towards an item is also part of the fun, something many people enjoy.. and that’s something you don’t have with the general grind or “do whatever you want and then buy it”.

Site note: HoT does make some progress here (Precursor crafting, and the ability to more directly farm mats).

But where we not not talking about this existing without a trade post in the first place? If people want a mat bad enough they will trade something else someone else wants for it its that simple and worked just fine in other mmorpgs.

I think we all talked about different stuff here during the last 24 hours and I think some discussions already have separate threads open about them, so it might be a better idea to take the discussion about that over there.