No. I do understand statistics. Thus my use of ‘hypothetically’.
To hypothesize 100% in statistics for situations in which there is no 100% chance earns a no-no from me. (It’s a completely pointless thing to bring up, because it’s infinite, hypothetically, literally, theoretically.)
But if you calculated that expected value, those items would be priced exponentially higher than anything else on the gem store. That is the problem. The prices are absurd and require gambling with real money.
You must not have read the entirety of my post. You can’t compare the calculated value with anything else in the gem store, because the reward is a unique thing which individuals place unique value onto it. Some individuals will place very high value on this object, and so naturally they will be willing to spend up to their threshold in order to obtain it, because they value it that much.
This is a very similar logic to the whole achievement point discussion we’ve had. Some individuals place a great deal of value in completing these achievement, thus they will undertake tasks they abhor in order to achieve them. Do you make fun of these people by telling them “it’s not worth it?” No, you respect their individual choice and their individual valuation of certain rewards.
This is why people gamble. They sincerely think it’s worth it, and it’s rude to belittle the fact that they value the reward so much.
EDIT: Of course, as you said this whole point is really moot if RNG items aren’t account bound since the market will set a value to the item and the player doesn’t have to. But for account bound RNG items, yes, it will be ultimately be up to the individual to assign these items a value.
