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Just a pet project. The win chances of a team reaching 250 points first is ~85%.
Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12XOIN3VhEzHfkJvH97yGKc9KVSHA3aASx1nElkdKgCU/edit?usp=sharing
I chose 250 as the baseline. Before the 250 mark, it is still anyone’s game. After 250, we can predict, or roughly guess, the losing team’s chances for a comeback with the rough calculation in OP.
The column labeled “Spread at Win” represents the two team’s point spread after the match ends. There’s a second spreadsheet labeled “Stats” that calculates the percentage. DC’ed matches are omitted from the calculation.
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Things can also go differently in Spirit Watch and Legacy of the Foefire with the extra points from orbs and killing the Lord. (And Forest of Niflhel with slaying Svanir/Chieftain too.)
In one match I had in Legacy, we were down 350 – 470 to the enemy team, but at the last minute I and a Thief managed to ninja-kill the Blue Lord and we ended up winning.
NPC kills were not factored in the rule-of-thumb calculation. However, NPC kills can be your trump cards at the late game.
Thinking about this further, there’s no clear distinction whether a game is in the early game, mid game or late game. I think, with the estimate calculation above, PvP plays have early and late games.
Early game is the period before a team reaches 250. Before 250, it’s everyone’s game.
Late game happens when one team reaches 250. At late game, we can estimate or guess whether the losing team can make a comeback. As the points tick, the chances of the losing team for a comeback shrinks. But NPC kills can reverse the losing team’s status at the late game.
When watching or playing, once a team reaches 250, strategies should change for both teams. The winning team should maintain their two-cap hold and try not to be greedy with a three-cap. The losing team should try to stop the opponent’s income and attempt to get a two-cap.
tl;dr?
Take winning team’s points and minus it with 500. Multiply the difference by 2. Add the product to the losing team’s points. If losing team’s points is less than 500, then chances are low for a comeback even with a two-cap.
All else being equal.
Blue team is at 330 and Red team is at 410. Red team has two-cap, but Blue is winning the team fight at mid. Can Blue make a comeback?
Most likely yes if Blue manages to cap mid and hold a two-cap. Consider that Red team wins the game once they accumulate 90 points (500 – 410 = 90). If Red team still has one–cap and Blue team has two–caps, by the time that Red gets 90 points, Blue had already won since they have amassed 180 points (180 + 330 = 510). Now this is only a guess, player kills and NPC kills all else being equal.
When you watch a match, you can find out if a team still has a possibility of making a comeback. To find out the possibility of a comeback, start by finding out how much points the winning team has to win the game. From the previous example, Red has 90 points. Now multiply that figure by 2—this assumes that Blue holds and maintains a two-cap. Once you have the product (180 points), add that to the losing team’s score and see if it adds up to 500 or more (180 + 330 = 510).
That’s it. Take the winning team’s point spread for a win and then multiply by 2. Add that product to the losing team’s points and if the sum is less than 500, the chances of winning is dire.
Now, consider Red team has 250 points and Blue team has 1 point. With kill points all being equal, Blue team may still win if they manage to grab and hold a two-cap, even if Red has a one-cap (250pt x 2 = 500pts + 1pt from Blue).
If Red team has 300 points, Blue must have 101 points and a two-cap to have a chance to win the game.
If Red has 350, Blue must have 201 and a two-cap.
If Red has 400, Blue must have 301 and a two-cap.
Finally, if Red has 450, Blue must have 401 and a two-cap.
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When watching some tournament matches, I hear the term “rotate” or “rotation” from the shoutcasters.
I assume that “rotate” would mean floating between nodes. For instance, far-point assaulter rotating between mid and far.
That and also covering points and come over/backup teamates…leaving guard afking at mid for example is a well known mistake, good teams will always bring bunker guard in teamfight cause it gives awesome support and an AH shout guardian alone has really no point…long story short rotations are those player’s movements aimed on always being superior (For number or hardcounters) in teamfights, basic stuff it’s like going with 2 wars 1 guard thief and something else on 2 points…then leaving wars on 2 points and roaming with guard and a dps/cond while thief can always backup if things go wrong or just decap far while others are fighting if they leave it and teamfight is going well…rotating good is probably the hardest thing in tpvp and it makes the difference between good teams and top teams and to get it right you should practice with always same ppl over and over again (On ts obviously) and get used to it, that’s why it’s the hardest part for a team.
Yeah, I’ve noticed that the best matches usually has a team that has an aggressive far-point assaulter. I love it when they decap and disengage—just annoying the hell out of their back-point defender when they rotate out.
Thanks hihey! That’s a pvp nomenclature I was not certain of.
When watching some tournament matches, I hear the term “rotate” or “rotation” from the shoutcasters.
I assume that “rotate” would mean floating between nodes. For instance, far-point assaulter rotating between mid and far.
Maybe 5 seconds. At Temple of Silent Storm, when Tranquility is captured, the timer will trigger when the bell ends its toll.
P.S.
To clarify, capping points and killing players would still grant you points. Reaching 500 will still wins you the match. Having Sudden Death Mode will add another layer to the match, which is a possible opportunity for reversal.
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Hi PvP community, just had an idea for an option in custom maps and hopefully used as a rule set in tournaments. I’m not sure if this has been suggested previously as the search function is giving me nothing.
In Sudden Death Mode, the team who caps three nodes will win the match if they can hold them for eight seconds. If the opposing team decaps a node within the window, sudden death will reset.
This mode would be “No Progression” on hot joins so it deters farming. The mode could be available for “Tournament”.
P.S.
To clarify, capping points and killing players would still grant you points. Reaching 500 will still wins you the match. Having Sudden Death Mode will add another layer to the match, which is a possible opportunity for reversal.
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I really wanted to like Wildstar, I mean, come on—HOVERBOARDS!
But when I got access to CBT and OBT, the questing was just—blegh! GW2 kinda spoiled me on that, and I went around killing stuff without doing the quests.
The clincher was PvP. When I queued for BGs, the battle was just a mess. I had to laugh at the overly cluttered telegraph system as everyone was just painting the ground red and green.
Hue?
On topic: as long as it isn’t a $60 monocle, I think ANet is good.
I think it comes down to 5 teams…. gf, apex, outplayed by children, pz, and team lonely….Everyone else will get stream rolled… gf got a free ride to final four bc they only play random teams… outplayed vs pz could go both ways, the winner will play and beat gf.. advancing to finals… lonely will fight apex in final 4 and idk who will win but they will both lose to pz or outplayed
uhm…is there somone still playing at decent levels in NA?
confused
I would like to see EU versus NA, sort of a SuperBowl for GW2.
One thing to note is that competitive GW2 is still in it’s infancy – it’s still missing some core features I think but it’s getting close!
I haven’t signed into these forums or Guild Wars 2 for a long time. I was told about this ludicrous post and felt compelled to reply. The GW2 competitive scene must be a phoenix because this kitten died a long time ago.
Truth. It is a phoenix thanks to the PvE and WvW players coming in (me included).
I think it’s a good move in ANet’s part. If you get the casuals play PvP and have them grasp some of the mechanics, then you have an audience when a tournament crops up. Previously, the barrier to entry for PvP was its empty rewards. Now that the new update is in, those who want to PvP on the sideline could be rewarded for their time.
But, yes, GW2’s PvP is still in its infancy. Teams are still unknown, and some players don’t have a personality or reputation to garner a following. I’m not sure if it will catch up, but we’ll see after China’s release.
I actually like that Sireph mentioned some opening on some of the games. I’ve never played tPvP with a team, but mentioning what opening were done gave me insight as a non-PvPer.
I learned two types of openings: Risky and Safe. Not sure if there are other openings out there, but starting with that might help non-PvPers who are watching the game.
And I think whatever a team’s opening is, the casters may explain what the risks and the rewards of such an opening is. But not immediately. They might remind the viewers what the specific team opened with. And when we enter mid-game, the casters could emphasize on the benefits of the opening if it worked out, or the fallout of an opening if it failed.
That’s my two copper as a non-tPvPer.
I actually enjoyed it. But I did get bored on games when it was one-sided. For the games that were neck-and-neck, I was on the edge of my seat. If there was a VOD for BooN vs TDI, Game 2, I’d link it. It was a really good match.
Okay, I think ANet is on to something. I’ve dabbled a bit in TF2, and that game is obsessed with hats. I feel that ANet might head that route, and I would be okay with that.
After the Wardrobe patch, I’ve bought the sunglasses and thinking of buying the glasses and the red-eye-scary-flashy headgear. There’s more people now with crazy “hats” that don’t mix well with their gear (a Sniper Warrior wearing sunglasses?! a Guardian having devilish eyes?!), but it’s in the hands of the player to style how ever they want.
So the current offers now at BLTC are “hats” and “skin packs”. I’ve never bought a “skin pack” since I don’t like how they look, and I’m picky on what I spend my money on. The “hats” on the other hand . . . I’m actually tempted to buy some of it (even the kitten quaggan hats!).
I think “hats” could be exclusives in the BLTC, while “skins” could be rewarded when the next Living Story kicks in. Or maybe the other way around.
Anyway, I just wanted to share my reaction on what Wardrobe has done to me:
How about we limit how many players can revive a downed or dead player? If someone is downed, only two players can help revive. If someone is dead, only one player can revive. And this change should apply to WvW, PvE and PvP.
I am amazed how fast people label something with “flawless” or “amazing” or “best ever”. I’ve seen better and I think Anet could even do better that’s the sad part about that. Watch I get infracted again just for saying something negative, but I am sorry that’s my opinion on that lol
Thank you for your opinion Debbie Downer
I heard about these “guilds”. My understanding is that they have other players in them who are willing to help their members.
Could be a myth though.
/thread
I hope when we destroy the tower, this song comes up: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gm66NIJPcFg
Endgame for me in GW2 is being a BAMF in WvW.
1
Even back in WoW, where end-game is raid e’ernight, I didn’t care about gear. For me, it’s all about PvP, and WvW sates that craving. I do hope sPvP gets a jolt soon to get me queuing for it.
Football season is here! And with that in mind, I had a wild idea about a Tournament format for Legacy of the Foefire. It will be the standard 5 vs 5 with some spectators as the casters and referees.
The round starts as usual, but the emphasis is to kill the Guild Lord. Capping points is not the main factor of this mode so a referee can change the score if ever one team nears the 500 point victory condition.
The whole match would be 32 minutes long, and there is no limit of how many rounds one match will have. Each round has an 8 minute time limit. A round ends when the Guild Lord is killed or when the time limit is up. Killing a Guild Lord awards the killing team 6 points.
There will be a secondary objective to this, and it is capping and holding three nodes for 10 seconds. The referee’s job is to do the countdown and broadcast it to the teams. Once a team is successful holding the three nodes for 10 seconds, that team is awarded 4 points. This will NOT end the round. Capping the nodes can only happen ONCE in one round. If a team had already succeeded capping three nodes, the opposing team cannot claim the 4 points, and the succeeding team cannot retake it for another 4 points.
In between rounds, players can elect to do a Timeout. Teams can only have two Timeouts. Having more than two Timeouts will penalize the offending team. In Timeout, players can change their traits, weapons, armors and upgrades. There is a 1 minute time-limit. Surpassing that allowed time will either penalize or disqualify the offending team.
As for eSports casting aesthetics, an overlay will be placed on top of the current scoreboard to prevent confusion to viewers. In between rounds, casters could explain the rules for new viewers.
Anyway, just a thought. Give your critiques and suggestions below. This could give an idea to casters or leagues (or maybe ANet). I would actually love to watch something like this for GW2 PvP.
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So… since WvW, PvE and PvP has their dailies and monthlies, why not Dungeons get their own too?
Think about it. WvW and open world PvE share the same Daily/Monthly. PvP gets its own daily/monthly, and that mode is limited to either 16 or 8 players. Dungeons is the same way only it is limited to 5 players.
Instead of having Dungeons included in the Daily/Monthly, why not have it as its own Daily/Monthly? When you complete the Dungeon Daily/Monthly, you get Laurel, Karma Drink, Essence of Luck and a Wildcard Dungeon Tokens. The Wildcard Dungeon Tokens can be converted to any type of dungeon token available in the game.
The activities in the Dungeon Daily/Monthly would be:
- Dungeon Mentor: Complete Story Mode with players who are below level 80
- Dungeon Explorer: Complete Explorable Mode
- Fractal Runner: Complete 3 sets of Fractals
- No Wipes: Complete dungeon without dying (only applies to the player, not to any one party members)
- Run Away!: Defeat a boss without getting hit by a telegraphed attack or a ground AoE.
- Master of Gambits: Complete a dungeon with one gambit in effect (this is similar to the Queen’s Gauntlet gambits, but it only activates when you aggro a boss).
Along with these are other activities such as completing a specific dungeon (e.g. Citadel of Flame Completer, Ascalonian Catacombs Completer, etc.)
Thoughts?
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Keep this up ANet! I love how this was stealthily introduced: give a hint inside the game and let it spread by word of mouth. It’s like a teaser trailer for the next episode, only it’s in game.
Please have an option to Tab Target Center Screen and have a non-intrusive cross-hair when it is chosen. It would be an option so it won’t bother the purists.
Hey Colin, I have a more important question:
Are legendary FOOD coming out!?
I would live to see Legendary food. So when your character farts, rainbows come out… or fire if you used Molted Lodestone in your recipe.
It would be great to have an option to enable standardized models, like the avatar placeholders in WvW culling. Players themselves could enable this to focus on the game, but for Observers they could disable this to watch all the shiny avatars.
Progeny: “Your face looks funny. All smooshed and weird.”
Charr: “No, your face is funny — just like a little raisin.”
I have to agree. This update is fun fun fun. Never expected that they could do a jumping puzzle version 2. I actually enjoyed figuring out how to get to that nook and that crook.
And the view of the zephyr ship is amazing.
Yeah, the 5% armor and strength boosts are only attainable through the Black Lion Chest. If you want to get those through those chests, then you’re paying to lose money…
As the renowned Sylvari psychologist, Sigmund Frond, had said, “sometimes a Karka is just a Karka.”
It would be great if you can click the capture point icons on top of the screen between the scores. Clicking one of them would immediately change your view to that area. This would be great if a capture point is being contested, and the shoutcaster can check it out immediately.
Those are the experiences that made me fall in live with this game. It’s open, and the environment that it was built on is inviting and conducive to stellar behavior.
Nope, seems fine with me.
I don’t PvP, but I do WvW. Last night, I experienced one of the best fights in months from this game. Our team of 10 confronted another team of 10, and the battle was intense. Folks were reviving their downed allies, people were trying to get their stomps in and some were doing bait tactics.
It wasn’t a one-sided fight. If it were, we would have eradicated or been eradicated under 1 minute. But this fight lasted long. Like 5 minutes long. After the battle, the humdrum karma train started again.
So this got me thinking… the next PvP mode should be Team Death Match. It will not be 5 vs 5, but 10 vs 10.
But here’s the GW2-style added in. Two teams, blue and red. On the blue side there are two scrolls, and on the red side there are two scrolls as well. These scrolls will tell you who the leaders are in the match. So if a blue player reads a red scroll, he will identify one of the leaders in the red team.
The center of the map is the arena with some pillars and walls for LOS. The blue and red team starting point will have two hallways that leads to a small room that contains one of the scrolls. There is a hatch in these rooms that are accessible by doing a jumping puzzle at the side of the arena.
Now, to win the match you need to kill all of your opponents, kill the leaders of your opponent, or kill a leader twice. Leaders are selected randomly at the start of every match. Every match has a 5-minute timer. Players can revive their teammate when they are dead. Leaders can also be revived, but will take longer. After reviving a player from a dead state, they will incur a death penalty. Players cannot be revived if they have died once. No respawn.
If none of the teams kill the leaders or eradicate the opposition when the timer is up, the game will go to sudden death. Sudden death will reduce every player’s HP by 75%, and offensive stats will be increased by 100%. First team to down one enemy player will win the game.
Last night was amazing. I think it was around 11pm EST. IoJ and DR fought toe-to-toe under the bridge near Astralholme. I’m not sure who had the bigger army, but it was a satisfying fight. People were reviving their downed allies, folks were trying to get the stomp in, some ran away only to turn around and serve a fresh one.
That’s the reason why I enjoy this kitten game. Looking forward to those kind of fights where none has the numbers to mow down the opposition.
P.S. I think a TDM, ala GvG, is badly needed as a PvP mode. From the experience last night, I would definitely love to see 10 v 10 duke it out.
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Here is my question if there is no kind of agreement or alliance of any sort how the heck has the points swing in the last 24-36 hours occurred… Last night I go to sleep (sick and exhausted so I could remember wrong) we still had a slight lead on IOJ..
I get off work… IOJ has a 6 k lead on us???
Im not blaming entire servers but that kind of swing would require large transfers of people to IOJ or agreements between some of the larger guilds on both DH and IOJ… is there a third possibility?
IoJ was the second Oceanic server since launch. Mr Starkk only comes out when NA is at work and when I’m at work…
I wonder how much I’ll be willing to pay for a custom arena?
Let’s see. I would think it worthwhile to spend say 10 silver to create a custom arena lasting for a few days.
I hope it’s not much more expensive than that.
I haven’t seen how much it will cost, but I read somewhere that the starter kit would last one month, and you could add time to it with time tokens afterward. And anyone can contribute time tokens to someone’s custom arena. So a whole guild could contribute a little bit of gold (gem conversion) per month to sustain their own arena.
Finally, a reason to tax PvE and WvW players.
It will be interesting. I foresee team chat and map chat being inundated with questions such as: “where is everyone?”, “how do you score points?”, “what’s that blue icon thingy?”, “what’s the point of this game?”, “why are you yelling?”
I changed the title from “War Score and Timer” to “Decisions Based on Timer”.
I had a thought also regarding tower defenses. When the enemy attacks your tower, it’s best to defend that tower until the timer reaches 0. Once the timer resets, you could abandon the tower and grab something else like a camp or another tower.
Also, you could bolster up defenses on a nearby tower or keep, assuming that those are the next target. At this point, you’re trying to delay their capture, thus delaying their point accrual. And when you’re delaying that capture, you can have a group ninja the tower that was lost previously.
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Basically, do good commanders base their decisions on the 15 minute timer? I’m priming myself on being a commander. So far, I’ve been observing our commanders in our server. Also, I’ve been glued to the mini-map like it was SC2 all over again, using it to predict enemy movement.
But last night, when someone asked if we should take a camp near enemy territory, I suggested that we wait until the 5 minute mark on the clock. Reason being is that once we cap the camp around the 5 minute mark, that camp is guaranteed 5 points because of Righteous Indignation.
And the train of thought ported over to towers, keeps and ultimately, castle. I was thinking if towers should be captured around the 15 minute mark or the 10 minute mark. It’s an assumption, but I will test what the optimal times are for capturing towers and keeps. I’m guessing castles would not apply to timings since it’s a large time investment to capture.
Anyway, I’d like to know what everyone’s input is regarding timings.
I think it’s a tad bit more innovative than that, as it creates some entertaininly unpredictable profession syergies.
When I think Chrono Trigger combos, I think more of “Fastball Specials”, IE Colossus throwing Wolverine. Not that it wouldn’t be awesome if a Norn threw an Asura warrior and he did a Whirlwind as he landed in a mob of enemies.
Gods, that would be the day. They can make it as a racial skill, maybe a utility or elite. The skill would be called “Pickable”. Once you use the skill, you will become a pickable bundle. When someone picks you up, they can throw you at the enemy or spin around with your sword extended.
For those who hasn’t played Chrono Trigger (what’s wrong with you!?), there were abilities called Double Tech and Triple Tech. When you selected these abilities, two or three of your characters go into an animation that gives out devastating damage. For example, Lucca will throw fire at Crono’s sword, and Crono would spin around with his fire sword, causing AoE damage. Another one is with Marle and Crono. Marle would enchant Crono, and Crono would spin to heal all the characters in your party.
With that in mind, sometimes I wonder if ANet drew some inspiration from this combat system, although I doubt triple tech is possible since GW2 only has combo finishers and combo fields. There are moments when I throw down a shadow refuge and do my dagger storm for leeching bolts, I would think of Chrono Trigger’s dual techs. Also, I smile when my warrior does a whirlwind attack, and another warrior does it to, doing an “X Strike” combination similar to Chrono and Frog’s dual tech.
Sounds like a new dungeon.
Hehe… I do this from time to time when the enemy has a treb set up. I would suicide my way to their siege and direct our counter-treb, telling them if it was a hit or a miss.
But, yeah, it does feel cheap at times and it ruins some tactical play.
I think it would be cool if you can purchase a torch that can burn the bodies on the ground, forcing the dead player to spawn at the nearby waypoint. Or… have a countdown timer like in sPvP, and when it runs out, you’re automatically ported to the nearby waypoint.
The good news is that now loot is giving plenty of badges to buy seige, bad news, sometimes is not enough and you will have to dig into your savings. I have a personal rule to avoid commanding unless I have enough seige to last for at least 4 hours.
Finances is also a small part of it, if you put your tag on, make sure you HAVE the time to stay there for a minimum of one uninterrupted hour, specially if there is no one else to hand it over to.
Yeah, I think of it in terms of “Raid Night”. Difference is you’re fighting people, not NPCs. Thank you for tips!
Thanks for the responses everyone.
@Zeal.1376 > I’ve been on the fence in regards to getting a tag. I had the cash for it, but spent it on some ectos to get my Mystic Clovers. Now I have 80 of those clovers, but I don’t have a precursor… Ugh. For now, I’ll just hold on to them until something is added that would make precursors reasonably attainable.
And I’m prepared to splurge. WvW is fun, and I’ve dabbled a bit in leading a small group to harass camps. I think the fun part of WvW is organizing the servers and guilds and the people in the map. It’s frustrating at times, but if it works, it’s rewarding.
@Herr der Friedhoefe.2490 > Yeah, I’m sitting with about 300k karma and 41 jugs of karma. I’ll do the Orrian Jewelry box, but puppies is that a pain on the left-mouse button.
@Sceinna.3561 > I have about 500 now, but I haven’t traded it in for Gift of Battle. I think I’m gonna hold the 500 (just in case), and anything after that, I will trade in for siege.
So I’m thinking of picking up a Commander Tag since I’ve mostly played WvW from launch to now. I’m short with cash, but I’m willing to sell all of my T6 Mats to hopefully get me there. I have now realized that a legendary is ffaaaaaaaaarrrrrrr away from reach (I don’t do dungeons).
Once I do get my tag, I’m thinking of ways to keep me from being destitute. I know there are folks out there that donate stuff to their commanders, but I want to make sure that I don’t rely on those for my sieges and upgrades.
One idea I had was trading in my laurels for T6 Crafting Bags, which costs 1 laurel and give about 3-4 T6 materials. It might average me daily around 40s to 80s. But I’m not sure if this is a smart way of converting laurels into cash. Another idea is using Mystic Binding Agents to convert cores into lodestones. The Elonian wines are expensive, and it sometimes cuts into profits.
Anyway, I’m reaching out to commanders for advice on how to stay afloat. I know there are good days when the cash rolls-in with the zerg, but there are times when you become the cash cow for your opponents.