Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.
I do not believe this for one moment. There are too many instances of lucky people. Even in our guild we have two that get so many precursors, we pool our rares in the guild bank and let them do the turn ins for us. One person has had over 30 precursors since the games launch and has made every legendary (up to and including nevermore-is working on the other new ones), even underwater ones because, why not. Deny all you want, but your system is broken.
If an RNG system is working, there will be outliers on both sides of the spectrum. Meaning there will be really lucky people and really unlucky people. Nothing in the accounts makes your account lucky or unlucky. Just sheer dumb luck on which one you fall into.
If the system was NOT as random as it is, there wouldn’t be outliers like your guildmates.
Seriously, do some research into statistics and randomness.
And remember, humans can perceive patterns where none exist and we can perceive randomness as not random. Why else would Apple make their shuffle less random? You’d think that would be counter-intuitive. But true random shuffle was perceived as not as random as it could be due to human nature.
Yes we are impressed with your knowledge of statistics…but that being said, it does not prove their system is not flawed. I have played many MMO’s since their inception and have never in any game but this seen ‘luck’ concentrated on so few accounts. You have no knowledge of how their system works, so why defend it?
Maybe other MMO’s don’t use 100% random RNG and make sure that every account falls within the average range on the bell curve and they remove the outliers.
I have the knowledge that the ANet devs have posted. Given human tendencies to:
- Find patterns where none exist
- Remember negative streaks best
- Have a strong tendency toward confirmation bias (we’ll shape incoming information to fit our own bias)
Unless players can come up with concrete data for several accounts across hundreds of drops/forges, then I’m inclined to believe what ANet says. As they can see the code. They know what they intended the code to say.
Not saying there isn’t a glitch in the system. Just that until players are willing to put forth the effort to generate the data, the glitch isn’t likely to be discovered.
Anecdotal evidence is not concrete enough due to the nature of human memory and bias.
You have no knoweldge on how the system works, so how can you claim it’s broken?
Every account has the exact same chance on RNG.
I do not believe this for one moment. There are too many instances of lucky people. Even in our guild we have two that get so many precursors, we pool our rares in the guild bank and let them do the turn ins for us. One person has had over 30 precursors since the games launch and has made every legendary (up to and including nevermore-is working on the other new ones), even underwater ones because, why not. Deny all you want, but your system is broken.
If an RNG system is working, there will be outliers on both sides of the spectrum. Meaning there will be really lucky people and really unlucky people. Nothing in the accounts makes your account lucky or unlucky. Just sheer dumb luck on which one you fall into.
If the system was NOT as random as it is, there wouldn’t be outliers like your guildmates.
Seriously, do some research into statistics and randomness.
And remember, humans can perceive patterns where none exist and we can perceive randomness as not random. Why else would Apple make their shuffle less random? You’d think that would be counter-intuitive. But true random shuffle was perceived as not as random as it could be due to human nature.
I thought John Smith was the resident economist?
Is his involvement in this matter an indication of a decision to somehow monetize the megaserver system. Perhaps to create an in game economy around the megaserver?
But think about how the megaservers affect the meta events in HoT. How are rewards dished out for those affected meta events?
How many of those rewards are saleable on the TP?
Now do you see why the economist is interested in making sure the megaservers work properly?
If the problems the megaservers have are causing the actual influx of materials to be more or less than intended or expected, it would have an impact on the game’s economy.
Then get a decent number of players (20-30) together to do tons of testing on RNG. Have everyone note down EVERY possible variable that your group feels may affect the results. Magic find, the boosts to Magic find, what enemies they fight, what level and what type of items they throw into the Mystic Forge, etc. Have everyone record EVERY drop. Even note down the trash or when no rewards are given (if you go after drops from enemies). In the order received. And note down chests and then what was in the chests And have everyone then share the data on a public site and link to it so that everyone, including ANet, can look at the raw data and the variables accounted for. And make sure everyone has at least 250 items (trash or better, so keep going if they receive nothing for drops from enemies) on their list.
If right now there are 100,000 players online and each one gets a loot bag on average every 5s your sampling is worthless. The problem is not that the sampling cannot be taken but that without extensive sampling it’s all too small.
Players won’t be able to conclusively say that there is something wrong with the sample size. But it may show that there may be something wrong with the system.
But until the player base that claims something is wrong with the system gets off their butt and documents findings from players who claim to be on both sides of the luck spectrum and players who are in the middle, then there’s no proof that ANet is lying. And ANet has access to the code and knows what the intent of the code is supposed to.
The person who exposed the ecto problem didn’t prove that there was a problem in their findings. They proved that there might be a problem.
Right now I have yet to hear a disproof of unlucky people in general, let alone game accounts.
The burden is on those seeking to change the status quo to prove that there is a problem that needs to be addressed. There’s been no evidence shown in this thread (or any other) that demonstrates that the results are anything other than predictable.
At any given moment, some people have had better drops and some have had worse. Everyone agrees that happens.
The question raised in this thread is whether that same ‘luckiness’ applies to the same accounts tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow…and there’s zero evidence for that.
tl;dr past performance cannot be used to predict future earnings.
The thing is, that conclusion is just pressing the prior assumption that these drops are all independent of each other. If they aren’t, well…
BTW I don’t think there are lucky or unlucky accounts. I just recognize that, without the actual code displayed for determining luck and drops, that there’s no evidence to discern between a fair system that has a random awards resembling a bell curve, or a system that is randomly unfair, and this distribution of unfairness itself resembles a bell curve.
Let’s assume that Anet released the actual code. Do you think most of the players would even understand it? They’d be relying on the what others say about it which is no different that relying on what Anet says about it.
It’s quite a bit different, really. Peer review and third party verification are useful things, and they speak volumes more than whatever company officially sanctioned post will say.
In this topic there are people seriously thinking there’s some hidden bug that Anet’s programmers can’t find. And you expect them to believe someone else who will say the code is clean? They will still think the same…
Nope. Independent verification carries a lot more weight than that.
Then get a decent number of players (20-30) together to do tons of testing on RNG. Have everyone note down EVERY possible variable that your group feels may affect the results. Magic find, the boosts to Magic find, what enemies they fight, what level and what type of items they throw into the Mystic Forge, etc. Have everyone record EVERY drop. Even note down the trash or when no rewards are given (if you go after drops from enemies). In the order received. And note down chests and then what was in the chests And have everyone then share the data on a public site and link to it so that everyone, including ANet, can look at the raw data and the variables accounted for. And make sure everyone has at least 250 items (trash or better, so keep going if they receive nothing for drops from enemies) on their list.
1) Can not change display name unless it break rule or show private information. You display name do not show this.
2) Make support ticket to change login email (account name) link top of page.
3) Can only make character name if not take by some other player. If available then can.
3.5) No Anet do not save name for anyone. If want name take it. If you do not and some other player take it you will not get name.
You do realize the entire point of this post it to CHANGE their stand on what you are saying… I’m already aware of this.
Edit: Except 2)
Then next time, put that in your post and not ask questions on if it’s possible. Asking questions on if it’s possible will not get them to change their response. They’ll go: yep, players answered him correctly, moving on.
1. They only allow for Display name changes if the name violates the TOS or is your real legal name. Neither case appears to apply so you can’t change your display name.
2. Contact support to get your log in email changed.
3. If it’s available and has enough characters in it I don’t think that would be a problem.
3.5. There is no reserving of names by ANet anymore. They did for a time reserve names for GW1 players who pre-purchased GW2, but those names that were reserved but not used have been released for public usage. You can however create a dummy character with that name and reserve it for yourself. You have 24 hours after you delete that character to remake it and guarantee being able to get that name.
And how would the wallet determine which tokens belong to which character?
I’d rather have account bound tokens than to have to carry around the tokens. We don’t need more items to carry around on characters than we already do.
There is no such thing as unlucky or lucky accounts. There is nothing in your account that dooms you to bad RNG and nothing in your friend’s account that blesses their account with good RNG.
In so far as this goes with ANET and GW2, that is the best we do know. However it has been proven in the past that in some games, there are oops such that one’s account DID have an effect on game behavior.
If I can recall correctly, Turbine back with Asheron’s Call actually did have a flag on an account that if set did cause that account to get more agro than a tricked out agro magnet styled character.First off, no RNG ever made can be truly random.
Such accepted as truly random devices do exist, but for an MMO they are prohibitively expensive.
Now something that was mentioned by a guildie a few nights ago made me pause. We players have zero clue how the RNG we use is seeded. Is it the same RNG seed for everyone? Is it per player/account? Is it per character? We have no clue. We can only assume that the RNG being used is the same for each player but the seed value will change the order of outcome (for utter lack of a better term.)
Until players get together to generate enoungh concrete data for people to look at while noting down all variables that may have affected their drops, there is no proof that the system has a bug in it.
As Quigi points out, you’ll need to create a support ticket. If your name was changed without warning and you weren’t asked to select a new one then you should have contacted support and requested that it be changed to something specific, or asked for clarification on their action.
Name based decisions usually occur based on reports from people in the GW2 community, so just because there are people running around with similar names to what you had doesn’t make those names now acceptable. It just means nobody has reported those people. Arenanet do not personally review every single account or character name, they rely on people reporting those that are found offensive.
Yeah ticket done so wait and see.
BTW , We talk about a account name here not a character name. I doubt I’ll create and play a character with that sort of name. All i asked in the ticket is to get my original account name back. ( display name )
did you try to make a play on words with yours? funny.
I’m not aware of any pun in my name?
I’m doubtful that they’ll change your account/display name back to what it was. Account names still have to adhere to the same requirements as character names since they’re visible to others. Hopefully they’ll allow you to select a new display name though.
That’s thing. ANet NOW allows for characters to be named Flaming Farts.
They did not when they changed his account name.
Since they’ve now changed the policy, the OP is wondering if he can get his original account name back since it’s not against the rules anymore.
If we could get a handle on what you feel is the minimum amount of rude/violating the TOS/whatever you want to call it you want punished and what you thought that punishment should be, then maybe we can have a discussion on if support is fine the way the it is or if other things can be adjusted.
Because right now, you’re only discussing the extreme cases where punishment is likely given, you just haven’t been told what it was.
I don’t take offense at the most innocuous things but it makes you wonder when you have a thread like this, and you explain why you made the thread, but then people starting harassing you over the harassment you mentioned, and it’s like “What?”
So how about you come up with a more reasonable comparison for your concern and then we’ll be able to have a serious discussion.
The post was done far up this page as far as I’m concerned, I am not looking for further discussion, only to be left alone at this point as it’s beyond ridiculous.
To reiterate:
Support is good for you guys. It works fine. Cool. Great. Okay.
My experience is not the same. End of.
I haven’t seen a reasonable comparison. I’ve only seen comparisons to horrible real life felonies. Which are not reasonable comparisons to what you’ve described happens to you in game.
Mhm. Way back at the beginning of the thread. I remember.
And so maybe you’ll answer the question more serious now? Maybe?If I did that, and the police said to you, “Hey it’s okay Orbital, just block him.”
Would you be happy with that result?And yes that’s another serious question, a very simple one too.
Would it be my fault? Or would it be the other persons fault?They’re very very simple questions…
You can’t compare horrible things said in chat to real life felonies. Unless you go around and tell everyone you meet online where you live and what you look like and all that good stuff that would make the death threats actually serious.
So how about you come up with a more reasonable comparison for your concern and then we’ll be able to have a serious discussion.
Well your first problem is taking terms of service as law. It’s not. It’s there to protect Anet from the law, to some degree. That is to say, they have the option to ban, not that they have to ban and saying that putting something in the TOS is a guarantee of behavior is not realistic.
For example, they put in the TOS that they can pretty much do anything they want, but then they don’t do anything they want. It’s just protection.
Most recently we’ve heard a change in the way names are vetted and what names will be allowed to stay or leave. Originally they were much stricter, but they’ve relaxed the rules.
So looking at the TOS and saying those are the lines is not of any real use to anyone.
I’ve asked you for what your lines are, I’d expect if you want changes, you’d lay out where that line is.
I guess a pretty worldly view on what is not acceptable, in THIS day and age, I don’t know. I don’t have some crazy expectancy grossly different from anybody here. What I do know, is that I’d rather not have my game be a giant free-for-all where people do what the hell they like. At least, that’s not what I signed up for at Beta. So things have changed, I guess that sucks for me.
That’s not what Vayne’s saying. He’s not saying it’s a free for all with no rules and no one gets punished at all.
He’s saying that ANet does not have to ban on first offense. Or even millionth offense. But that they can ban for breach of TOS. And they have banned for breach of TOS due to rudeness. You should go see the support section and look for threads made by their buddies going why was my friend suspended/banned. Or why was I on a three day ban? Then ANet steps in and provides the evidence of rudeness.
So you literally get thousands of death threats?
If so, there is likely something you’re doing that’s causing it, be it intentional or not.
If not, please for the sake of the thread, STOP using it as if it is something you literally get thousands of. Because it IS hurting your argument.
No, I never said that, never did, the ones that I have received I did not ask for, nor did I provoke.
But when asked for other examples of rudeness you’ve perceived, all you come up with is the death threat. If you get thousands of rude remarks it shouldn’t be too hard to come up with an example that is not a death threat. But since you haven’t, it made me wonder.
So please, stop with the death threat example. It’s obvious you can’t persuade people in this thread to be on your side with that example. By now you should realize that a different example is needed if you’re going to convince any of us.
So what I got from all of this is that you’ve reported people for “being rude”, and you still see them around? How do you know Anet didn’t suspend them for 24 hours? Did you friend them and track their times online. Or did you just see them again and felt that what they said deserved a perma ban?
Because from Anet’s stance, they don’t perma ban people for rudeness. Depending on what is said, they suspend the account for a period of time. And said period of time increases as it goes. And yes, I know it works. I have a friend who is extremely hostile in PvP and he says things that even I say he shouldn’t say and to just turn off all chat. But he does. And he gets suspended. Last suspension was for 3 days. He’s been up to 7 before. And he’s been ‘a good boy’ for a while, so it went down.
The system works. But Anet will not ban an account because of what a person says. Unless it’s been an ongoing issue.
No, “being rude” is not my choice of words, and never has been, as explained further back in the thread, and no I do not friend them god no, that makes no sense. I do however see them around again yes, repeat offending whether it be to me again, or others (it does not matter). But yes if you’re asking, I think death threats are worthy of a perma/temp-ban and for the matter to be looked into further.
So you literally get thousands of death threats?
If so, there is likely something you’re doing that’s causing it, be it intentional or not.
If not, please for the sake of the thread, STOP using it as if it is something you literally get thousands of. Because it IS hurting your argument.
If you give us more information on the rudeness you’re seeing most of the time, then maybe we can talk about what can be done. But until you do, we’re not going to discuss what most of us feel happens only rarely, beyond going: that’s not what I see.
It’s just a case of “rude person” is rude.
I report. Nothing happens.
Later Date: “rude person” is rude again.
Report again. Nothing happens.
Rinse and repeat endlesslySo either:
A. They need said “rude person’s” money income over temp muting/banning them.
B. They disagree with what has been said/done is rude.
C. They are so inundated with support tickets/reports they simply can’t do anything quick enough.We know it’s Not B. because I think we all can agree death threats are serious…
And if it’s C. then that is why I suggested alternative support help from player helpers. :pActually, I was going to say it’s most likely B. They analysed the chat and concluded it wasn’t serious enough to warrant punishment.
Death threats can be serious, depending on context. It may be a spontaneous exclamation of frustration with no intent behind it, or there may be indicators (such as knowing your personal details) that make it more serious. It’s hard to say without an example – which you refuse to provide.
But apart from that, you continue to muddy the water. In your post above, you keep referring to a person being “rude” which is not how I would describe a death threat. You only slip in the death threat at the end completely out of the blue to exclude the most likely option (B). This is intellectual dishonesty.
Ally, it may be prudent to not continue this thread. It’s not going to bring you the satisfaction you seek and every one of your posts is actually undermining your own point.
I’m sorry I don’t keep screenshots of every. single. attack. on me that takes place ingame, usually they’re larger than a One Liner and Anet has the chat logs so screenshots should not be necessary… I DO however use the report function all the time as would most.
As for using “rude person” I only used that because I grabbed it as an easy way to explain from the post I was replying to. Ofcourse I think they’re being more than “rude” in my eyes.
None of my posts have undermined what I am trying to get across.
But you should know which type you get the most. And be honest with us and yourself. It’s not the ones making death threats.
Continuously referencing the rare extreme case as if it was a lot more common than it is only makes people think you’re exaggerating for effect and have a tendency to make mountains from mole hills and maybe no one’s really being rude all that often to you. That’s what impression we get when you use the rare extreme example. Yes, it’s the easiest one to come up with off of the top of your head that you know everyone will agree on is rude.
But wrack your brain. Think of a less blatantly incredibly rude/mean/hurtful example of the rudeness that you see the most. Then make a case around that for why we should wrack our brains for punishments that might get people who are just joking around with each other when strangers overhear.
Not seeing this vile community either. I’ve blocked a total of one person in 3.5 years for something said to me. The other people I’ve blocked were being annoying, boring or tedious in map chat but not vile.
If you want us to see your account of what’s happening to you as being accurate, you need to give true situations, not hypothetical ones. And I have to repeat what Gaile said once
Gaile Gray Source
ArenaNet Forum Communications Team Lead
“Each case of reported “stalking” or harassment is reviewed by our Customer Support team individually and with care. Here are some steps you could take:
Block the player on your Friends List
Play in Invisible Mode
Try reaching out to the person’s guild leader if you feel that the person would be receptive to helping you
File an in-game report
Submit a support ticket (see below for details)
If the harassment extends to real life (at your home, place of business, via telephone, etc.), contact your local law enforcement agencyNow, there are occasions when claims of “harassment” run in both directions. I am not making a judgment about any situations mention here, but sometimes chat records show a back-and-forth bickering or attacking that does not allow an easy solution. This means an agent confirms an in-game report but also notes that the alleged victim also was in breach of the UA or the RoC. If there’s evidence of what we call “mutual antagonism” then it gets trickier and a resolution isn’t as simple to reach.
If someone is overtly harassing a player, the team may well be able to help with the situation if that player wishes to file a support ticket. (We cannot accept a ticket on behalf of a third party — the person involved should reach out to CS.) When doing so, please provide your character name, the offending player’s character or display name, and a very precise time, time zone, and date. Screenshots are not necessary if you can provide those details, at which time an agent will look up the incident and see what took place.
Bottom line: if you’re being harassed, do not react. Do not have your friends react. Don’t post about it on a forum or make a public issue of it. Do not start a flame war or fire a bunch of verbal mortar shots back in the direction of the person who initiated the attacks. Simply submit an in-game report or, if necessary, a ticket.
If you have submitted a ticket and the team has not reacted, then you need to continue your private discussion with a CS agent, as we would not discuss particulars here on the forums. "
Fair enough. If that’s their take on it.
I just wanted to talk about options that could have been explored to make the community nicer. Ideas other than my original one would have been welcomed.
If you give us more information on the rudeness you’re seeing most of the time, then maybe we can talk about what can be done. But until you do, we’re not going to discuss what most of us feel happens only rarely, beyond going: that’s not what I see.
I’ll just say I think you’re all proving my point very valid within the thread itself alone. I come on to throw out some ideas and to seriously talk about help and support within the game and how we could possibly make some improvements to the environment for everybody. YET all I am met with is this, my point of the post; people in general being rather “nasty” (yes) towards me with no real reason for it.
Actually this post proves the point of the majority of people posting in this thread. You have an idea, people don’t agree with you that problem is serious and suddenly we’re a bad community. I didn’t bad mouth you. I didn’t threaten you. I disagree that the problem is as serious as you’re making it out to be.
You see that’s the problem with overstating your case or hyperbole. It’s harder to take seriously.
When my kid use to run in from outside like he’d amputated his arm, when in fact all he did was get a little scrape, I wouldn’t empower him by making him think he’s right. I’d tell him, look it’s just a little scrape it’ll feel better in a bit. You don’t have to let this get you down and most of the time they’d run back outside and play. They were exaagerating, perhaps for attention, or perhaps because they were a bit scared. Not because the scrape was that bad.
By admitting you used metaphors, if the metaphors don’t fit, it’ll be harder for people to take you seriously.
Which doesn’t mean you’re being attacked, and it doesn’t prove your point that the community is bad.
I think me bringing up a serious topic (cyber bullying), and then being promptly Trolled, and told, that I am too sensitive actually proves MY point. My metaphors and analogies for points in my argument I feel were sufficient enough, even if deemed as too extreme to take seriously.
No one’s trolling you. People have suggested that you may be too sensitive. May being the operative word.
But without seeing specific examples at a variety of levels we can’t say whether you are or are not.
Because be honest with us and with yourself, most of the time you aren’t getting those extreme examples.
Okay so let’s make up some hypothetical scenario:
person A: says some rather vulgar things to you, maybe wishes you and your family all get aids/cancer and die, and ALSO proceeds to make a real irl death threat
You: …
Now I really just want to gather what you lot “suggest” happens in this scenario as an example. Do you block them and hope for the best they don’t see it through? I appreciate some will just say “block and report” but are you honestly telling me that’s all you would do? or that it’s acceptable to let them go and maybe do that to another person?
There’s not enough detail in the example. What do you consider an irl death threat?
If you consider it to be credible (i.e. they know your real name/address) you would go to the police first and foremost.Also, why do you need a hypothetical example? You said you had hundreds of cases. Why not present just one of those, with the names altered?
I do not believe they need to be extremely detailed is why. It’s the core of it I’m trying to get noticed in this thread at the moment at least. Police is a good answer for the more extreme cases. But I think that in the meantime, and certainly, for less immediate threat cases, ArenaNet could look at other options just in general to make things nicer for everyone, even if it’s in a good place for you right now. The one and only idea I have put forward right now is simply thrown out there, non-payed player support is viable I believe. Priveledges can be revoked or dished out at anytime by ArenaNet themselves ofcourse to players they’ve decided to entrust. Any abuse of power can, much like the other game, be looked into and promptly stopped via their current system they have with tickets and the like.
There will always be jerks in the game. If you’re constantly running into them when most others you talk to do not, you should look at the reasons why. You haven’t told us what part of the game you play most often. PvP tends to bring out the jerks in people quicker and more often than WvW and PvE.
Are you a more literal person who needs the vocal tone to know if something’s said as a joke or as sarcasm? I know I have a tendency to not recognize jokes or sarcasm, especially from strangers because I am more literal. Nothing wrong with being literal, but it is something to stop and think about before reporting someone.
As to why you see them around after they are reported, maybe it was someone you reported who didn’t have an extreme case of jerkitis but was more borderline and you and ANet disagree on whether it’s punishable or not. Or maybe they weren’t so rude that it warranted more than a “knock it off or you’ll be banned” or you see them around again after they’ve had a short time out from the game.
I’ll just say I think you’re all proving my point very valid within the thread itself alone. I come on to throw out some ideas and to seriously talk about help and support within the game and how we could possibly make some improvements to the environment for everybody. YET all I am met with is this, my point of the post; people in general being rather “nasty” (yes) towards me with no real reason for it.
Ally, come on. People here are trying to help you, asking for examples they can actually discuss. If you find all of this thread offensive, all you’re proving is that you’re overly sensitive or even intolerant. Don’t let that be the image you leave with. Talk to the people here who are trying to help you.
Maybe it’s that everybody keeps using the words “you’re sensitive” or other forms of insult rather than taking the topic seriously?
Maybe I AM sensitive… Maybe I’m NOT…
The heart of it is, Does That Make It Okay?
Because different people have a different threshold for when they feel something is rude enough to be reportable.
Player A may think that “L2P you noob!” is rude enough to be reported, he’s using noob as an insult. Reported.
But Player B goes: “Eh, he’s just angry and venting, he means no harm in it.” and just goes on with his life.
And to your hypothetical, while I would report that, I would take it as a compliment if it’s in PvP and the guy was an opponent. He’s just jealous of my skills. And if I thought the death threat was valid enough, I’d go to the police. That’s conspiracy to commit murder, I believe.
This is just like the ecto salvage rate threads; a fundamental misunderstanding of randomness.
Over 4k hours and never a precursor, BUT I get an ascended box from daily fractals on average once every 3 days. I’ve heard guildies say they went 30+ days without seeing an ascended box. So at least I’ve recognized how the flawed system can be manipulated in my favour. Just random chance you say? That’s fine, I’m going to keep farming fractals every day and keep getting my ascended boxes reliably, and you can label it with whatever statistical lingo you want. The results are there in front of me.
Honestly, I don’t know what you hope to achieve by sharing anecdotes with no evidence like this. What is your point? Regardless, even if what you say is true, that does not go against the concept of randomness. Randomness precisely accounts for the fact you might get these drops while joeblow.2945 won’t get a single one from 500 chests.
There was one time that the ecto salvage rate was bugged. However, ANet didn’t step in when people were giving anecdotal evidence. One player took the time to do at least 100 rare or exotic salvages and wrote down the number received and posted the results. ANet then went, hmmm something may be wrong and did simulated trials and found something wrong and fixed it.
So until a group of players, some on the lucky side, some on the average side, and some on the unlucky side are willing to do hundreds of trials and note down magic find numbers during the trial, there isn’t much ANet can do, because anecdotal evidence isn’t strong enough to warrant a deeper look.
I did the survey since you said there were questions regarding not doing raids, but there weren’t any of any real value to anyone.
Just would I consider doing them in the future and how many hours per week I play.
No questions as to why not. So if I completed the survey (I saw no reason to submit such useless data for analysis), you wouldn’t know if I didn’t do it because I don’t have time or if I don’t do PvP or if I thought they were too hard or too easy or if I didn’t have a level 80 character yet.
Safe spot? i have actully seen more downed/defeated people on that platform then the rest of the room xD
buffing its health will not change much IMO
i though you only have to wait out the 5min pre o.o? the other pre just have a “must be done before the timer is up” kinda req.
You have to wait for the golem to get from outside of the reactor to the spot where FE emerges before the 5 minute timer begins. and that takes ages as he has to go into some of the side rooms and clear out enemies there instead of just walking to the main room.
Of course there are lucky accounts. That’s a consequence of randomness.
With randomness comes unequal distribution. Looking at cumulative results over time, you will have outliers for whom the dice either fell really, really well or really, really terribly.
That’s not a problem of “marked” accounts though, but just the consequence of having randomness.
Also, when people bring up the people who seem to get good drops all the time, I tend to wonder if these lucky people don’t just play a lot more and generate far more rolls of the dice.
Well, there are two sides to a bell curve for outliers. The really good side and the really bad side. You can’t say there can exist people who get bad drops only and then deny there are people who get good drops only.
It’s like rolling Heads or Tails. If you say getting Heads is like getting a good drop and Tails is like getting a bad drop, then it’s easy to see how both sides can exist. If 100 people flip a coin 100 times, most will be relatively near to 50/50. But a few will likely have mostly Tails. And a few will likely have mostly Heads.
Just due to RNG coin flipping.
To those that say it’s all RNG. You have to remember that Anet has acknowledged that there are outlier accounts on both ends (some get lots, some virtually nothing). There is a thread here . Nothing has ever come out of it that would address the issue. In a lot of cases it’s just RNG . However, some players are really extra happy or sad depending on what kind of outlier they are. Once you have one you are stuck with it though.
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/RNG-as-a-concept-Discuss/first
No, you’re not stuck with being an outlier. Each drop is independent of the last. Your drops don’t know if you’re an average or an outlier.
There is nothing saying that an outlier can’t become average or move to the other side of the bell curve. And average accounts can become outliers.
And all accounts will tend toward the average as they get more and more drops.
Because that’s the law of large numbers.
And none of us here are saying that there aren’t accounts that have had bad or good luck with drops. Just that there’s nothing in their account that made them have bad or good luck before they even started playing.
There is no such thing as unlucky or lucky accounts. There is nothing in your account that dooms you to bad RNG and nothing in your friend’s account that blesses their account with good RNG.
You can not say that the system does not work like ANet states without proof. Anecdotal evidence is weak at best and can’t be used as definite proof. Due to evolution, we’re more likely to remember negative things because they’re things that in the past we’ve had to avoid. “Oh, I got sick from eating those berries. I shouldn’t eat those berries again.” or “Johnny died from eating that plant. I shouldn’t eat that plant.”
Also, you can’t ask in the title if accounts have luck and then say you aren’t accepting any answers except “yes”. Nor can you stop those of us who answer “no” from answering your post.
Yes, due to RNG some accounts will tend to have bad luck and others good, but nothing in your accounts makes it so and tomorrow your lucks could switch or become average.
Fire Elemental could use a rework to be more the the Great Jungle Wurm in Caledon Forest.
Yes, the pre-events are easy. But they don’t last 10 minutes. And the Wurm doesn’t die in 30 seconds.
That’s the problem Fire Elemental has, long escort pre followed by a 30 second boss fight. The mechanics of the fight aren’t to hard, but with some minor tweaks to remove the safe spot and give it more health wouldn’t make the fight too hard for the players on level 15 characters.
It doesn’t need to go back to being so hard that you can die on the bridge trying to get close enough to attack the Fire Elemental. However, I do think they overshot the mark a tiny bit when they nerfed it.
So they’re supposed to let bugs that crash the servers and break the game remain in just so you can do the meta?
Personally, I’d rather miss out on one cycle of the meta to not risk getting to 2 minutes before the meta ends and crashing. Because maybe, just maybe, this is the patch that solves the DC’ing in DS.
If 80% of your fun came from 1 rare drop that was only worth 3g at it’s max, then maybe it’s time to move to another aspect of the game.
Over 3 years mystic coins have been needed for legy’s and hundrets other items. Anet was always fine with their price. They changed it with the daily login reward a little bit. And they changed it again with new mf recipes during and after HoT (so even the lazy people would see that these coins have a value).
Anet totally underestimated how much people of their playerbase are no life, hardcore asiagrinder.
That’s why there are now two items, mystic coins and gemstones, totally broken. Kind of funny how all the trader come out now and defend the broken design with their lives because they stocked up in time.. And of course some special snowflakes love the broken raise because they have been able to get some new legy for cheap directly after release and now they want to be a special shiny snowflake…
Probably that’s why anet usually only acts after issues have been repeatedly on reddit. (There at least the trolls and traders usually get just downvoted and forgotten.)
Newsflash: I’m not a trader. I do not even have the Golden Achievement. I’ve currently got under 20g because I decided I’d rather gear up an alt than save for legendary materials. I also don’t even have 1 stack of Mystic Coins. I’ve also never purchased any nor have I sold any. I also don’t have any legendaries or even a precursor.
But I also know that prices don’t stabilize quickly, especially if it’s for something that’s long term.
I’m not saying there isn’t a problem with Mystic Coins, but I’m also not saying there is a problem with mystic Coins. What I’m saying is it’s too soon to tell if there is a problem or if it’s just a price adjustment put in place by ANet to get Mystic Coins in line with where they want them.
I can’t speak on the amalgamated gems/orbs/whatever as I don’t even know how one obtains them.
Not everyone who disagrees with your assessment of the problem is a trader with profits on the line. So stop assuming everyone is. I can’t speak for the others who have disagreed with you on whether or not they’ve speculated on the Mystic Coin market.
I wouldn’t play. I die way too often and I would quickly get sick and tired of “restarting” and then it would become not fun due to frustration. And since I would know that would happen from the beginning, I likely wouldn’t play.
Now if it was optional per character thing, I’d likely try it.
The point is they are going to run out. Hell, even the PvP Legendary backpiece uses them.
And we do not know if the supply will run out. We also don’t know that it won’t.
There hasn’t been enough time to really tell. In 6 months time demand could be down if the next set of legendaries isn’t released.
I believe ANet let the Mystic Coin become too common and wanted to make it a lot more rare. So they put the higher demand without increasing the rate of generation of the coins on purpose. And once the Mystic Coin reaches acceptable levels, they’ll adjust the system to increase supply or lower demand if the player base hasn’t already done it themselves. The rate of generation is too constant for them to not know what the effect would be of putting in items that require a lot of Mystic Coins.
I went through nearly 2 stacks making Nevermore.
Not getting the point you’re trying to make. I’ve been aware since Ayrilana posted the link to the Mystic Tribute on page 2 that the new legendaries take more Mystic Coins than the old legendaries.
You need about 481 mystic coins for the new legendary weapons.
That only shows a required 250 Mystic Coins (answers my question about which legendary, I haven’t looked into the new ones since I’m still working on an old legendary). The remaining ones can be bypassed with the monthly log in reward.
9.25-12.5 months depending on how many times you do the Mystic Forger daily is not that long to wait for enough Mystic Coins. And again, assuming a player has none when they decide to start making the legendary.
Look further at the 77 mystic clovers that are also needed.
Yea, and you can also get 7 Mystic Clovers from the Legendary Chest you get on Log in Day #28. So 11 of those chests later, and you’ve got your 77 Mystic Clovers without touching your supply of Mystic Coins.
Just because you can get the end product somewhere else doesn’t negate that roughly 481 mystic coins are part of getting the new legendary weapons.
Doesn’t mean you can ignore the fact that there are other methods of acquisition of the Mystic Clover. And That Guy was saying if there were more means of Mystic Coins for the legendary that it would be fine. I pointed out that there was the Mystic Clovers from the chest and that is technically an alternate means to the same end result.
Seeing as how the new legendaries seem to be a very long term goal item (if the mat requirement for the old precursors are any indication of how long ANet wanted the new precursors to take…), I’m not sure how out of the realm of acceptable that 481+ Mystic Coin requirement is or is not.
I wasn’t ignoring them. I posted the link originally as a result of you questioning which legendary requires 250 or more coins.
The way you phrased it sounded like you had forgotten about it. Sorry for misunderstanding, I tend to be very literal.
And I had not looked into the new legendaries and the Wiki for the Mystic Coins isn’t very helpful on what recipes call for it. The only thing it lists is the Mystic Clover.
You need about 481 mystic coins for the new legendary weapons.
That only shows a required 250 Mystic Coins (answers my question about which legendary, I haven’t looked into the new ones since I’m still working on an old legendary). The remaining ones can be bypassed with the monthly log in reward.
9.25-12.5 months depending on how many times you do the Mystic Forger daily is not that long to wait for enough Mystic Coins. And again, assuming a player has none when they decide to start making the legendary.
Look further at the 77 mystic clovers that are also needed.
Yea, and you can also get 7 Mystic Clovers from the Legendary Chest you get on Log in Day #28. So 11 of those chests later, and you’ve got your 77 Mystic Clovers without touching your supply of Mystic Coins.
At the cost of 20 laurels or a vision crystal and 1-2 ascended mats. So very expensive.
Definitely, and it wouldn’t be the option I would take more than maybe once (I’m lazy, so I don’t want to do the 1 Mystic Clover recipe, but I know I can’t sell the excess off, choosing the chest once lets me not get excess but not use the 1 Mystic Clover recipe). Especially if I didn’t have the items that take gold to get taken care of.
Half tempted to buy up what’s left to prove a point and see if Anet takes action in an upcoming update or at least acknowledges the issue.
Except me and many others are sitting on stacks of coins and would profit greatly if you were to do so – by waiting for you to post and gently undercutting you.
Sooner or later your stock would run out. And the prices would not go back to what they were before.
Depends on if “what they were before” was the equilibrium price or not. If it was, it would eventually return to that (would take while and demand would have to remain constant. If not, it would not return to there but instead to the new equilibrium price.
Here’s two ideas that fixes crazy market demand/manipulation:
1. Remove Shards of Glory and convert them to Mystic Coin. They serve the exact same purpose.
2. Or at least tie a break/conversion recipe like Glob of Ectoplasm and Crystalline Dust from Shards of Glory to Mystic Coin.
We don’t need more Mystic Coins needed for legendary weapons. Precursor crafting requires Shards of Glory.
You need about 481 mystic coins for the new legendary weapons.
That only shows a required 250 Mystic Coins (answers my question about which legendary, I haven’t looked into the new ones since I’m still working on an old legendary). The remaining ones can be bypassed with the monthly log in reward.
9.25-12.5 months depending on how many times you do the Mystic Forger daily is not that long to wait for enough Mystic Coins. And again, assuming a player has none when they decide to start making the legendary.
Look further at the 77 mystic clovers that are also needed.
Yea, and you can also get 7 Mystic Clovers from the Legendary Chest you get on Log in Day #28. So 11 of those chests later, and you’ve got your 77 Mystic Clovers without touching your supply of Mystic Coins.
Just because you can get the end product somewhere else doesn’t negate that roughly 481 mystic coins are part of getting the new legendary weapons.
Doesn’t mean you can ignore the fact that there are other methods of acquisition of the Mystic Clover. And That Guy was saying if there were more means of Mystic Coins for the legendary that it would be fine. I pointed out that there was the Mystic Clovers from the chest and that is technically an alternate means to the same end result.
Seeing as how the new legendaries seem to be a very long term goal item (if the mat requirement for the old precursors are any indication of how long ANet wanted the new precursors to take…), I’m not sure how out of the realm of acceptable that 481+ Mystic Coin requirement is or is not.
You need about 481 mystic coins for the new legendary weapons.
That only shows a required 250 Mystic Coins (answers my question about which legendary, I haven’t looked into the new ones since I’m still working on an old legendary). The remaining ones can be bypassed with the monthly log in reward.
9.25-12.5 months depending on how many times you do the Mystic Forger daily is not that long to wait for enough Mystic Coins. And again, assuming a player has none when they decide to start making the legendary.
Look further at the 77 mystic clovers that are also needed.
Yea, and you can also get 7 Mystic Clovers from the Legendary Chest you get on Log in Day #28. So 11 of those chests later, and you’ve got your 77 Mystic Clovers without touching your supply of Mystic Coins.
You need about 481 mystic coins for the new legendary weapons.
That only shows a required 250 Mystic Coins (answers my question about which legendary, I haven’t looked into the new ones since I’m still working on an old legendary). The remaining ones can be bypassed with the monthly log in reward.
9.25-12.5 months depending on how many times you do the Mystic Forger daily is not that long to wait for enough Mystic Coins. And again, assuming a player has none when they decide to start making the legendary.
I said it encouraged daily logins, not that people are logging in daily for mystic coins only. All the daily login bonuses act as an encouragement to logon, which is of value to ANet as it both helps the metrics to show to stockholders and because once people log on they are likely to play for a while.
if your suggestion fits their game design better than what they’ve got so far then I expect they’ll give it due consideration.
I was showing the 2 extremes and how, on both sides of the spectrum, requiring an item with this acquisition method isnt a good thing at this scale. Nevermore needs 75 days of timegates I believe it is for spiritwood. While its alot, its not too terrible. if, on the other hand, a new legendary required 60 mystic coins (3 months of logins) we wouldnt be having this discussion because its really not as bad. but that isnt the case. it requires minimum of 250.
That’s the thing. Legendary weapons are THE epitome of the long term goal. 1 year roughly (it really takes 12.5 months, but you can expect Mystic Forger to show up at least 10 times during the course of a year) is not too long for a long term goal. Players who do not wish to wait that long can either put in buy orders for coins or buy coins at current sell order prices.
If you’re wanting to convince players that the rate of generation of supply is not good, don’t choose the long term goal of the game for most players who do not choose to use their credit card to buy their legendary.
And which legendary requires 250 Mystic Coins? Last I thought, the number needed was random since the only thing that requires Mystic Coins for legendaries is the Mystic Clovers.
Meteorlogicus doesn’t. It needs anywhere from 77 if you get really lucky with the 1 Mystic Clover recipe to 250+ if you’re really unlucky.
I did the 10 Mystic Clovers recipe to get to 70 (and got the remaining 7 from the Legendary chest). I recall getting Clovers about 50% of the time. So about 14-16 tries, or 140-160 Mystic Coins. Or 7-8 months of waiting, if you had no Mystic Coins when you decided you wanted a Legendary.
Edit: The wiki shows that I was on the lucky side and it’s about a 33% rate, so every 3 tries you get a success. So it’s either 231 Mystic Coins on average if you do the 1 Mystic Clover recipe or 240 Mystic Coins on average if you do the 10 Mystic Clovers recipe. Also, there is an alternate means of acquisition for Mystic Clovers. If you choose the Legendary chest at the end of each 28 days, you get 7 Mystic Clovers. The non-RNG means for getting the Mystic Clovers for the legendary takes 11 months to get. It’s not bad to make the RNG method take about the same time.
(edited by Seera.5916)
NOt everything expensive, is broken. I don’t think Mystic Coins are something they want more supply of. There was reasons the implemented sinks for them (hefty ones at that), becuase people have hundreds maybe thousands of them from a time when Mystic Coins were near useless and reflected as such on the TP. ANet want things to have value. T6 Mats have dropped drastically in price. You have to keep the economy somewhat balanced in that. So something things are going to be more scarce than others.
My opinion is that ANet decided that Mystic Coins were going to be one of those things that they wanted the bring the value up on. It’s worked. I, personally, have over 2000 mystic coins in my bank from doing dailies/monthlies in the old system and logging in every day in this one. Not everything has to be extremely cheap. Mats all over the place are dropping in price only a few of them are going up. Look at the big picture and not zero in on one item.
No one has said (well maybe someone did, but then that would mean they didnt get the point of the original post either) that its broken because the price is too high. the entire point is that its broken because they have a hard capped supply that does not come close to the demand which causes, among other things, the price increase. It is entirely possible for them to implement a way to create supply through in game effort to increase accessibility while still maintaining the current or even a higher price then they are now.
You clearly do not get economics.
If you increase supply but do not change demand, prices does not go up, it goes down.
And no, it is not broken just because there is a fixed supply of mystic coins. ANet knew full well what the supply was and what the rate of mystic coin creation was when they added the things that take mystic coins with HoT. It’s not like they have to factor in the chance of too many people getting too lucky with their drops or anything. The mystic coin economy is something that ANet can control pretty well.
No, I do understand economics. I didnt say they should specifically increase supply, I said they should increase accessibility. Simply increasing supply by adding them to map rewards, increasing daily login rewards, or some other means of more or less handing them out is a simple increase in supply that would cause a price drop. Thats not what I am talking about.
What I proposed they do was to increase accessibility by using other things that already hold value and have alternative uses in a means of creating mystic at a cost at or above the current TP value. Would this at least initially decrease the price of coins? probably. but over time as those constituent materials/currencies and mystic coins reach a new equilibrium, if the amounts are properly balanced it would retain either current or even higher prices on the TP (higher because coins are still increasing anyway and will go up further each time new recipes are released) at the new equilibrium but still allow new supply to be created in response to further increasing prices.
The most basic and mindless example (and not what I would propose at all) would be a vender that sells mystic coins at 50s each. Accessibility increased as supply can be created in response to prices over 50s, do prices decrease from their current level (mid 30s) because a new mode of acquisition no.
using a recipe would result in a “floating cap” on the price that fluctuates with the value of those other materials/currencies.
Yes, supply and demand still function. But when you have an absolutely fixed supply the ONLY things that can change is the demand or the price. When new uses are released the demand increases as people want new items. But supply cannot increase, so the price increases to a new equilibrium point and/or demand decreases. But how can demand possibly decrease? people stop using them. They cut out an entire category of in game goals, those using mystic coins because they have no recourse. (I am talking long run here as new players begin crafting things and old players finish, not initial crafting spikes and prices well over the current ones)
That was the entire point of precursor crafting, to maintain the value of precursors on the market but increase accessibility through crafting them (yes they have ended up coming down a bit from their highest sustained points in august/september of 2014, but they have been roughly the same for about a year with a drop when HoT released but prices have been recovering some since then.)
In a real economy, people can innovate responses to increases in prices, find alternatives, alternative sources of the same thing etc etc. Not here. Here mystic coins is a resource for which individuals must compete with other individuals if they want to make anything requiring them is a reasonable amount of time. Thats something that is contrary to the design goals of GW2.
If you do not change supply, the only thing that affects prices is demand. Prices stay the same. People are still just as likely to hoard coins as they do now. For when the next set of legendaries get released and demand increases. Which will increase prices, since supply will also go down. When supply goes down and demand goes up, prices will definitely rise.
What you are asking for is ANet to put in place something to increase the supply of Mystic Coins.
So let’s assume ANet knew how many coins you can get on average each month (20 + the number of times of Mystic Forger is the Daily).
Then you have some questions to ask on why ANet would increase demand for something that they know has two means of acquisition (Daily Log in and Daily Mystic Forger) that are not RNG bound and are fully in their control.
Possible reasons:
1. Mystic Coins were too common for what they had wanted the currency to be. We’ve seen ANet put in recipes to correct this. Silk before Ascended was vendor trash. Then Ascended came along and prices soared. Apparently a bit too high as ANet then put in more means of acquisition and drove the price down some, but not as far down as it was before Ascended.
2. They want things that use Mystic Coins to be long term goals. Which either means a gate of time or money. This typically means making sure demand exceeds supply.
Either way, I do think that making temporary items require a lot more coins than is reasonable to earn in the time the temporary item is around is unfair to new players who are actively playing at that time. Not saying they must keep it to where everyone who logs in every day during that time will get enough coins, but if it’s around for only 1 month, it doesn’t need 200 Mystic Coins to make it. But also not so low that everyone and their mother can get one. Mystic Coin using temporary items should be items that show that a player put forth some effort into getting it by the deadline. Either by spending gold or playing for many of the days of the event.
Now, does ANet have the best rate of Mystic Coin generation it could have for the health of the game and game’s economy? I don’t know. But given the player base’s tendency to farm things, they do have to be careful on anything that could be achieved through farming so that they don’t increase supply so much that the rarity of the item goes down too much for where they want it.
All I’m saying is that ANet’s very likely aware of the current supply and demand of the coins and whether that’s a healthy level for the state of the game’s economy. And ANet only balances around the large scale economy, not on a player to player basis. So ANet very likely intentionally created the situation we’re in with Mystic Coins for a reason and will make corrections as they deem healthy for the game’s economy (and remember this is large scale, not player scale).
The assumption you have Ayrilana is that someone now controls the bulk amount of Mystic Coins not currently on the TP. And that’s where people who do those things get into trouble. Because it quickly becomes a question for every player sitting on a pile of Mystic Coins whether to sell off some of their hoard, knowing prices after shenanigans like this return to normal quickly. If I can make a quick 100 gold now and buy back the number I sold later at half that, the person or group that tried to corner the market is going to take a bath.
Look already it’s down significantly from the spike yesterday. Supply has recovered. Sure prices are up roughly 14% but this is almost the only way to raise a price to the level the market is willing to bear at the current supply/demand equilibrium.
Yeah I know. It’s the main reason why I didn’t just now go and do it to prove a point. I went through various scenarios to see if I could possibly break even quick enough with the higher prices but there was just too much risk to be worth it.
Someone buys the stock.
Someone waiting for the price to go past a price line before dumping their stock now jumps on the ability to set the price where he/she wants it.
Other players with stockpiles see this price and go: ooo, that’s a good price, I’ll sell my stack, but I want mine sold now so I’ll undercut.
The person who bought the stock initially eventually sells the stock before the price crashes too much and they can’t profit.
Assuming current price is the equilibrium price, prices eventually return to where they are now. Because that’s the law of supply and demand. It won’t necessarily happen quickly, but it will eventually reach the equilibrium price.
Yep. People who have them stockpiled were one such risk as were those who chose to sell their coins from the daily rewards rather than keep them. I couldn’t see myself breaking even quick enough for that reason. Making a profit wasn’t a concern but I wasn’t prepared to take a loss to make the point.
Right now new supply (not held by players) is at a fixed rate. Demand for the coins are fairly high as they’re used for legendary weapons and quite a number of mystic forge recipes. Price has been steadily rising since last month with supply levels dropping. It may have hit equilibrium the beginning of last week but it’s difficult to say. The player(s) who bought a bunch made things sporadic the past few days.
When the next batch of legendary weapons are released, you can be sure that the price for coins will go up. The same can be said about the legendary fractal backpack. This will shift everything to a new level which they will probably not fall back down to how they are now.
Someone buying up a lot of supply to drive up prices does take time to settle back down. Sometime prices go back to where they were and other times they remain slightly elevated. Imagine if someone were to buy up supply just before legendary weapons or backpack were released. Demand would have increased, there would be less people who would be inclined to sell their coins, and a percentage of any supply that got dumped would have been absorbed by the new demand. The price recovering would now be slower.
What if Anet released the next batch a few months after that before prices had settled? It would be an endless cycle of prices going up and then falling back down without reaching previous levels so long as they keep adding new uses for the coins. And during this time, those that need to use them, will struggle because of it. The coins are used for many other recipes other than to make legendary weapons.
There’s an equilibrium price with the current supply and demand.
And a new higher equilibrium price with higher demand and same supply with the next set of Legendaries.
And a new higher equilibrium price with higher demand and same supply with the next set of Legendaries.
And a new higher equilibrium price with higher demand and same supply with the next set of Legendaries.
And a new higher equilibrium price with higher demand and same supply with the next set of Legendaries.
Which as I understand this thread is the point, that supply needs to be increased at some point.
Yes. That’s what I’m trying to get at. I’m not saying that it’s currently bad but at some point in the future it will be.
And it might not ever be a problem even if ANet never changes anything related to Mystic Coins again. Given how guild upgrades and legendaries are more long term goals, I would say it’s still too soon to determine if we’re at a higher than normal demand for mystic coins or not. Demand could go down in the next few months.
And for all we know, ANet has it set like this to purge a lot of the supply to bring price where they want it to be before making the rate of generation of coins be equal to the rate of consumption. Like a controlled fire in a forest to promote growth. Something that at first glance looks like a problem, but actually isn’t as long as someone’s monitoring the situation.
Seriously people start reading threads before you write some kitten stuff in them. Around 50% of posts here are from people that have no idea at all and are just writing because they are bored.
Again for all the non reading kids: Noone cares about your stupid legendary or guild upgrade! For these two mystic coin price is fine and could be doubled and still noone should care!
The problem is that mystic coins are needed for ~250 mf recipes (lvl15 up to lvl500 recipes), there are ~100 mf only weapon skins that can only be created with mystic coins (like eternal sands), there are some couple hundret other items and upgrades that need mystic coins!!!Only because most people are to lazy to look up from where or how their weapons are created, doesn’t mean that we all aren’t massively hurt by increasing mystic coin prices.
Mystic coins have been an undervalued item since gw2 release.
Not because you didn’t need them! They have been undervalued because 99% of the player base is —-———. I know that because I made thousands of gold two years ago by crafting mystic coin items (for less than 1g) and sellling these for 30g. Now this doesn’t work since HoT (which is totally fine), but now these crap items are really costing ~40g each and their price is raising fast (because of mystic coins).
So again the problem is that now ~300+ beginner items and base food cost ~40-50g and these are still raising fast. So 1g each mystic coin will be fine for guild halls and legy’s, but IT’S NOT FINE for hundrets of low lvl beginner items!
And maybe those are supposed to be long term goal items, too.
And.maybe you should stop and realize that we do read the posts, but realize that any change done to the mystic coin economy has to take into consideration the guild upgrades and the legendary. And that these two are probably the main points they are balanced around, with consideration given to the other items that use it.
So please, stop assuming that we don’t read the posts when we done mention every recipe that uses the mystic coins, but instead only talk about the two main ones. Thank you.
The assumption you have Ayrilana is that someone now controls the bulk amount of Mystic Coins not currently on the TP. And that’s where people who do those things get into trouble. Because it quickly becomes a question for every player sitting on a pile of Mystic Coins whether to sell off some of their hoard, knowing prices after shenanigans like this return to normal quickly. If I can make a quick 100 gold now and buy back the number I sold later at half that, the person or group that tried to corner the market is going to take a bath.
Look already it’s down significantly from the spike yesterday. Supply has recovered. Sure prices are up roughly 14% but this is almost the only way to raise a price to the level the market is willing to bear at the current supply/demand equilibrium.
Yeah I know. It’s the main reason why I didn’t just now go and do it to prove a point. I went through various scenarios to see if I could possibly break even quick enough with the higher prices but there was just too much risk to be worth it.
Someone buys the stock.
Someone waiting for the price to go past a price line before dumping their stock now jumps on the ability to set the price where he/she wants it.
Other players with stockpiles see this price and go: ooo, that’s a good price, I’ll sell my stack, but I want mine sold now so I’ll undercut.
The person who bought the stock initially eventually sells the stock before the price crashes too much and they can’t profit.
Assuming current price is the equilibrium price, prices eventually return to where they are now. Because that’s the law of supply and demand. It won’t necessarily happen quickly, but it will eventually reach the equilibrium price.
Yep. People who have them stockpiled were one such risk as were those who chose to sell their coins from the daily rewards rather than keep them. I couldn’t see myself breaking even quick enough for that reason. Making a profit wasn’t a concern but I wasn’t prepared to take a loss to make the point.
Right now new supply (not held by players) is at a fixed rate. Demand for the coins are fairly high as they’re used for legendary weapons and quite a number of mystic forge recipes. Price has been steadily rising since last month with supply levels dropping. It may have hit equilibrium the beginning of last week but it’s difficult to say. The player(s) who bought a bunch made things sporadic the past few days.
When the next batch of legendary weapons are released, you can be sure that the price for coins will go up. The same can be said about the legendary fractal backpack. This will shift everything to a new level which they will probably not fall back down to how they are now.
Someone buying up a lot of supply to drive up prices does take time to settle back down. Sometime prices go back to where they were and other times they remain slightly elevated. Imagine if someone were to buy up supply just before legendary weapons or backpack were released. Demand would have increased, there would be less people who would be inclined to sell their coins, and a percentage of any supply that got dumped would have been absorbed by the new demand. The price recovering would now be slower.
What if Anet released the next batch a few months after that before prices had settled? It would be an endless cycle of prices going up and then falling back down without reaching previous levels so long as they keep adding new uses for the coins. And during this time, those that need to use them, will struggle because of it. The coins are used for many other recipes other than to make legendary weapons.
There’s an equilibrium price with the current supply and demand.
And a new higher equilibrium price with higher demand and same supply with the next set of Legendaries.
And a new higher equilibrium price with higher demand and same supply with the next set of Legendaries.
And a new higher equilibrium price with higher demand and same supply with the next set of Legendaries.
And a new higher equilibrium price with higher demand and same supply with the next set of Legendaries.
Which as I understand this thread is the point, that supply needs to be increased at some point.
Yes. That’s what I’m trying to get at. I’m not saying that it’s currently bad but at some point in the future it will be.
And it might not ever be a problem even if ANet never changes anything related to Mystic Coins again. Given how guild upgrades and legendaries are more long term goals, I would say it’s still too soon to determine if we’re at a higher than normal demand for mystic coins or not. Demand could go down in the next few months.
And for all we know, ANet has it set like this to purge a lot of the supply to bring price where they want it to be before making the rate of generation of coins be equal to the rate of consumption. Like a controlled fire in a forest to promote growth. Something that at first glance looks like a problem, but actually isn’t as long as someone’s monitoring the situation.
The assumption you have Ayrilana is that someone now controls the bulk amount of Mystic Coins not currently on the TP. And that’s where people who do those things get into trouble. Because it quickly becomes a question for every player sitting on a pile of Mystic Coins whether to sell off some of their hoard, knowing prices after shenanigans like this return to normal quickly. If I can make a quick 100 gold now and buy back the number I sold later at half that, the person or group that tried to corner the market is going to take a bath.
Look already it’s down significantly from the spike yesterday. Supply has recovered. Sure prices are up roughly 14% but this is almost the only way to raise a price to the level the market is willing to bear at the current supply/demand equilibrium.
Yeah I know. It’s the main reason why I didn’t just now go and do it to prove a point. I went through various scenarios to see if I could possibly break even quick enough with the higher prices but there was just too much risk to be worth it.
Someone buys the stock.
Someone waiting for the price to go past a price line before dumping their stock now jumps on the ability to set the price where he/she wants it.
Other players with stockpiles see this price and go: ooo, that’s a good price, I’ll sell my stack, but I want mine sold now so I’ll undercut.
The person who bought the stock initially eventually sells the stock before the price crashes too much and they can’t profit.
Assuming current price is the equilibrium price, prices eventually return to where they are now. Because that’s the law of supply and demand. It won’t necessarily happen quickly, but it will eventually reach the equilibrium price.
NOt everything expensive, is broken. I don’t think Mystic Coins are something they want more supply of. There was reasons the implemented sinks for them (hefty ones at that), becuase people have hundreds maybe thousands of them from a time when Mystic Coins were near useless and reflected as such on the TP. ANet want things to have value. T6 Mats have dropped drastically in price. You have to keep the economy somewhat balanced in that. So something things are going to be more scarce than others.
My opinion is that ANet decided that Mystic Coins were going to be one of those things that they wanted the bring the value up on. It’s worked. I, personally, have over 2000 mystic coins in my bank from doing dailies/monthlies in the old system and logging in every day in this one. Not everything has to be extremely cheap. Mats all over the place are dropping in price only a few of them are going up. Look at the big picture and not zero in on one item.
No one has said (well maybe someone did, but then that would mean they didnt get the point of the original post either) that its broken because the price is too high. the entire point is that its broken because they have a hard capped supply that does not come close to the demand which causes, among other things, the price increase. It is entirely possible for them to implement a way to create supply through in game effort to increase accessibility while still maintaining the current or even a higher price then they are now.
You clearly do not get economics.
If you increase supply but do not change demand, prices does not go up, it goes down.
And no, it is not broken just because there is a fixed supply of mystic coins. ANet knew full well what the supply was and what the rate of mystic coin creation was when they added the things that take mystic coins with HoT. It’s not like they have to factor in the chance of too many people getting too lucky with their drops or anything. The mystic coin economy is something that ANet can control pretty well.
Can’t you folks read? It says "the pet will attack an enemy if it is attacked ". The patch disallowed NON veteran NPCs only . Real players and veteran NPCs can still draw aggro on your pet.
But the game is not that crowded by veteran NPCs. Their ability to aggro your pet shouldn’t be that much of a problem.
Guild upgrades are supposed to be contributed to by all members of a guild, not just one person. If you assume a WvW guild isn’t a 2-3 man guild and has around 50 active players, that’s 15-16 mystic coins per person in the guild. Or 31-32 if only half of the guild contributes. Which isn’t very long to get on an individual basis.
If you can’t get your guild to contribute items to help, then that’s a guild problem. Not a problem with the mystic coin supply.
A WvW guild that’s just starting up is lucky to get 15-20 regular players, if that (I’m on Tarnished Coast, NA T2, still a fairly populated server). Good luck trying to build a guild with 50 active players if you’re not already established. People that we’ve recruited so far are willing to donate and, like I said, we’ll get the upgrades eventually. It’s just the thoughtlessness that bothers me. Why Mystic Coins? Why not Memories of Battle (which you can actually get from rank up chests and their only sink is legendaries) or something along those lines? I know that there’s several account-bound, time-gated things associated with guild hall upgrades, and I don’t know why the coins of all things have kittened me off the most lol.
But whatever, it’s not like my rants will change anything. I was just mad this morning because after dumping about 300g on getting a guild hall and getting upgrades going, I was excited because I thought we’d finally be start working on WvW upgrades so that claiming things meant something. Little did I know that I’d have to dump another 50g just to get a stupid Magic Find Aura (but hey, maybe a percursor will finally drop, amirite?). Then there’ll be Mystic Coins aplenty.
That’s still 39-52 mystic coins per person. Which is 1-3 months depending on how many players have and how often the Mystic Forge daily shows up during that time. Not an unreasonable amount of coins or time.
A new guild is obviously not going to have everything up and running and anyone joining a new guild should not expect everything unlocked yet.
The trade off is you get to put in input and feedback on guild policies and other things like that, that are harder to change once the guild’s very well established.
(edited by Seera.5916)