Guild Wars 2

Some gw2spidy data I culled since about November 2012.

Some of the precursor costs (x250), current supply/demand (S/D), trend (S/D UP, DOWN or STEADY) and price (UD or DOWN)

Format – ‘name’ (price) (S/D) (S/D UP, DOWN or STEADY) (Price UP, DOWN or STEADY)

Blood (65G) — (5160/30608) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (STEADY)
Venom (27.4G) — (11132/11128) — (UP/DOWN) — (STEADY)
Totem (45G) — (7755/11360) — (STEADY/STEADY) — (STEADY)
Dust (36G) — (2929/30019) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)
Fang (36.5G) — (3468/15322) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)
Scale (30.5G) — (17360/23777) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)
Claw (31.4G) — (4293/16756) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (STEADY)
Bone (13.1G) — (18342/42832) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (STEADY)

Mystic Coin (22.1G) — (42210/45537) — (UP/STEADY) — (UP)
Ectoplasm (94.9G) — (5892/86441) — (DOWN/STEADY) — (UP)

Based on this analysis it is highly likely that, overall, the price of acquiring legendary will go up. Currently it will cost you just over 400G for these and this is not taking into account other precursors such as ‘icy runestone’ which cost 100G for 100.

The three biggest choke points are ‘ectoplasm’, ‘blood’ and ‘dust’, but perhaps mostly ‘ectoplasm’.

Please note that the UP/DOWN terms don’t necessearly imply the magnitude; just the overall trend since about November 2012.

Ursan.7846:

I’m still confused as why buy orders differing by 1s means gold sellers….

Someone help me with the logic here. Are you saying that if it was players, they would constantly outbid each other?

That’s not true. Look at an auction house. You get to a point where people will just stop bidding higher, because they reached their limit. You see the same here. Yea, you can bid 2s more, but you hit your limit, you just refuge to go higher.

Very normal.

And you get situations where the seller can hide one its own amongs the buyers to increase the price artificially. Same thing can happen with the 1c undercutting. One thing to notice is the ammount of items being put on the market with a particular price and the trend, especially when comparing the total buy/sell orders.

Syeria.4812:

No matter how hard you try to be condescending, defend your post, or change the alleged topic of discussion, you can’t win people back now. They all know you have no idea what you’re talking about, and that you’re just desperately trying to force some sort of appeal to authority (with some bizarre logic that somehow presents you as an authority).

Just to humor you for the moment:

The spike you’ve repeatedly freaked out about and cried foul over didn’t actually occur. As Mr. Smith noted (and can be validated by looking at the chart) what you see is a reporting/graphing error related to maintenance. In fact, it has happened every single Thursday since regularly scheduled billing maintenance has been occurring. Just 3 seconds of research makes this obvious.

Right…I don’t know what I’m talking about….I’m not going to bother convincing a mule to move if he doesn’t want to with his free will.

Like I said before, I don’t buy it that it’s a graphical error. IMO, the economy is manipulated by ANet to some degree. They have to make a minimum profit. Any company knows this if they want to survive and/or blossom within the economy. Why introduce so many sinks within the game? RNG, DR, no loot on mob kills, tax on sales, and finally the mystic toilet.

Are all of these there to fit the purpose of the game only? I doubt so. The quickest and easiest way to get rich is not getting caught out with own devious acts. I can speculate that DR implementation was more than just to tackle bots – something that many players also believe. This is a sink, like many others, to maintain the economy so it does not fall appart – and who controls these variables? Have a guess…

Ouch, $400 is near impossible to get a decent rig to run this at decent settings.

http://pcpartpicker.com/p/CMok

If you can use your old power supply unit, case and HDD, AND put it together it, you will cough up ~$440 for the above.

Syeria.4812:

Yet, anyone with even the most rudimentary economics education would know that few, if any, of the words you desperately tried to cram into your much maligned post would ever be used in a coherent economic discussion. That’s especially true when the conversation is in the presence of laymen. It’s obvious to everyone that your post was essentially gibberish squeezed together in an attempt to try make yourself appear to be knowledgeable on a subject which you are clearly not.

LOL at you suggesting this being just an economics discussion. Tell me what the core language is behind culling/presenting/analysing economical data. This is the language I have used; perhaps there is a hint of physics in there, however, anyone with solid understanding of this language would not argue that what I wrote was incomprehensible.

As for the post. Did you mean the below post?

The abnormality is actually observing the staight line graph. The economy is a quasi-chaotic system and one can plot a trendline to predict economical outcomes in the (near) future, however at no point should a simple trend like this line be observed from the data output, especially over such lenght of time. Furthermore, the market is never steady because variables fluctuate constantly.

Seriously? You can’t comprehend this? Ok, I’ll rephrase this in “layman” language.

The economy is like a crazy system where there are many things constantly changing/affecting it (i.e. the price exchange between items/shares). When graphing this, a linear relationship (i.e. in the form of y=mx+c) should not be observed in the actual graph data at any time. One can, however, simply plot a trendline in the form of y=mx+c, which can help predict (near) future prices.

If you can’t comprehend this then there is something wrong… /FF

Generaly, in mathematics anyone talking about “slope” is referring to the tangent at a particular point of a curved line or function, where as “gradient” tends to refer to a straight line and its magnitude.

Because I have delt with mathematics most of my life, I tend use the term “gradient” when refering to straight lines because of y= m x + c. Both terms are interchangeable and as SteepledHat.1345 said, anyone with general maths knowledge would not argue whether its “slope” or “gradient”, especially when discussing a straight line.

Well I went to two zones I havent been in ages and OMG the drop rates were quite good. In a two hour run I got 1/4 sellable junk, 2 yellow, 12 greens, 6 blues, 23 whites, and few cloth/leather for slavaging.

Then went to do a dungeon. In the beginning I got only globs of globy goo, but then started getting blues and greens. I even got an exotic (Vatlaaw’s Gloves)!!! Which I sold for kool 4.5G.

How ever DR hits, it does help to randomise what you and where you go in the game. I will post another update – will go to other zones I havent been to in a while.

GW2’s Random Number Generator (RNG) is not completely random per say (i.e. pseudorandom), because it is based on code; an algorithm. The only true RNG, in terms of spitting out random values, is when you CPU fails and gives errors. Instead of giving zeros and ones it starts to give other numbers. I forgot what the test was but it involved physically failing the CPU so it generated errors which gave random numbers – this was a true RNG.

AnthonyOrdon.3926:

Dasorine has it. Ultimately clearing all five temples should make taking the gates to Arah a much easier task.

You mean the path won’t be filled with those zones doing damages to you? Or less congested enemies?

The “want” factor is always lurking about. The more people are enticed to buy items with gems, the higher the exchange rate will be. If the market has less need for gems then the price will fall untill players are enticed (i.e. want) to convert gold to gems again.

gillius.2856:

wow i got that email ages ago —--> report———> delete —--> carry on the fun

Nah, I’m waiting for 11 of those before I delete them so that my email account get filled and can finally complete the ‘full email’ achievement lol.

John Smith.4610:

The oddly straight lines we see sometimes are caused by bugs in the graphing, not a lack of trading.

Really? It’s a bug? A bug that lasts several hours – 12+ hours in the image I provided above.

I don’t buy it.

Ursan.7846:

Or you can call it a “slope.” A word that more people will understand than “Gradient.” You can choose to communicate your ideas in a clear and concise manner, or you can choose to use fancy words to sound smart…

So now I have to use particular lingo in order for the not so educated to understand me? You learn about “gradient” in early highschool years – it is hardly a “fancy” word. The fact that you seem to be confused by the term ‘gradient’ makes me assume that a) you haven’t learned about it, or b) struggle(d) in highschool maths. The forums are filled with people from various educational backgrounds – perhaps instead of criticising me you could have learned something here.

As for gradient in vector analysis (a.k.a. vector calculus):

If y=f(x)=mxi+c is a vector in the ‘i’ direction,

then by taking the derivative of f(x) we use the following equation,

grad(f(x))=Del operator=x’(d/dx) + y’(d/dy) + z’(d/dz)=x’(d/dx) (because no direction in the ‘j’ and ‘k’),

which ends up giving the value of ‘m’ and (not so) coincidently it is the gradient, or slope, of a straight line.

Gradient of a 1, 2 or 3 dimensional vector (expressed by ‘i’, ‘j’ and ‘k’ unit vector notation,) gives a a scalar value.

Enjoy some pre college maths.

Ursan.7846:

1. I highly doubt you understand what the word “gradient” means, from the way you used it.

0_o You really want to go there? Ok, as simple as I can be so you can (hopefully) comprehend it. Gradient=M=Rise/Run=(y2-y1)/(x2-x1).

Ursan.7846:

2. I imagine that straight line is due to maintenance on the BLT.

Ahhh and here comes witness number one – ‘Mr. Maintenance’. Assuming this means that no trading is going on on the TP then the exchange rate should either a) hold steady, or b) drop to zero. It should not result in a straight line with a positive gradient (see what i did ther?). This anomaly, IMO, is a TP manipulaton factor added by ANet to increase their profit due to the economy improving (i.e. more people get richer, buy more luxurious items etc etc etc, what you said).

Ursan.7846:

3. I still have no idea what you’re saying. Yes, you see a straight line on this plot. What does that have anything to do with trend lines and extrapolating? What is your original point? After reading and re-reading your posts I still can’t comprehend your writings.

Go look up any market data such as shares and show me one graph that has a perfect straight line at any point in time – you will find none. Hence why the only straight line you will ever see from such data is when you actually plot a trend line.

@Zenguy.6421 Exactly, that noise, as you say, is there because of the many variables affecting it – i.e. they make the “noise” constantly fluctuate. Remove these variables and you should hear no “noise”, however this is not the case here. This is why I speculate that gem/gold is being manipulated.

Is Anet willing to provide information as to what causes that straight line in the TP gem/gold exchange rate?

Bugged – Crystal Desert.

Says 8 branded army remaining – I count 6!

ANet please fix it for kittens sake. This was first reported 4 months ago!!!

@Syeria.4812 Like I said before, explain what is pointed by the red arrow in the picture I have added. This is not the first time I have observed this. Furthermore, I have seen the gradient change.

Generaly speaking, one would never observe a straight line in real life market data in any time frame because there are too many variables which constantly fluctuate the value – you should know this, you’ve done economics. Hence why trend lines are used to “predict” (near) future outcomes by considering all of the possible factors.

If he was imprisoned in the mystic toliet then how da kitten did he get out during the karka event?

Who paid his bail? I bet it was Anet and all the money they make from players dumping their goods lol.

Pretty much any class that can do high DPS and/or AoE.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

LOL! I love how you Google stuff and try to make baseless arguments by comparing apples to oranges.

So from your “expert” options, should I convert 1,000 Gems into Gold, that creates an abnormal movement in a straight line, causing inflation, and thus meaning I’m a market manipulator?

Are you a professor? Because I think I’ve just been schooled.

You don’t know the rate and volume of exchanges occuring at a particular time, therfore, 1000G might well be equivalent to a pebble in an ocean. As for presuming I google stuff, sorry, but my statement was actualy knowledge in a nut shell; however, it sounds like you could not comprehend it?

Oh, and to answer your schooling related question: I’m not a professor, however, I do hold a Bachelor in Physics (Hons.) and Ph.D in Chemistry/Solid State Physics. In the future I would not be so eager as to presume that every person in this forum is not educated and instead just googles stuff. Just out of curiosity, did you google the word quasi?

Ursan.7846:

Death Reincarnated.3570:

@ Iures.2894

Let me rephrase. You should be able to plot a trend line (i.e. linear line of best fit), however this should not actually appear in the graph (i.e. straight line). Once again, economical data is based on a quasi-chaotic system. If you remove this from the equation then realisticly speaking you should get zero gradient, however this is not the case here, hence there is an underlining factor added to the gem/gold exchange which can be associated to manipulation.

Wow, this post has to be one of the greatest examples of using a lot of fancy words and not actually saying ANYTHING.

Do you even know what a trend line is? The only remotely fancy word in my entire post was quasi-chaotic, which describes the vast number of variables and their impact on economical data. 0_o

I’m still waiting for an answer/response as to why these short-term linear related data were observed in the TP’s gem/gold graphs. If it has nothing to with manipulation then prove it.

As I recall, the number of DE’s to do now is either the same or less (I think it’s less) than before the patch. So whats the problem with not having enough time to complete it???

A golden/green coloured chest with fireworks would have worked better IMO. The point is, the chest should be easily visible, which in the general is not.

I had 4 chests drop in different zones and all gave me greens thus far. What is interesting is I had two yellows drop not from a chest – or its’ just hard to notice those chests and I tend to loot fairly quickly.

70% done within few days. I’m enjoying it.

Gaudrath.6725:

As I said before, the above “solution” has only two outcomes.

1. Everyone and their dog and their dog’s fleas has a legendary.
2. The system is actually so hard skill-wise that 99% of players can’t even hope to get a legendary.

In either case much crying would ensue.

This can be offset by allowing 1 legendary per character. Furthermore several prerequisites need to be completed in order to begin your legendary story.

1) World Completion
2) Do each dungeon (story)
3) Do every dragon event

Then you could tackle this quest by completing the following:

1) X-ammount of DE’s (Hero’s Badge)
2) X-ammount of crafting/slavaging (Diploma of Weaponsmithing)
3) Revive X-ammount of fallen team mates.
etc. etc.

These can be then taken to crafting or mystic forge. The precursor could be obtained by going into a special zone. It could be a mix of zone and dungeon. By completing specialised DE’s in that zone you get access to a dungeon run. After finishing it all you can get a pre-precursor items which can be crafted by the weaponsmith in that zone.

Then you take all your stuff to the mystic toilet and whalaaaa – LEGENDARY WEAPON of CHAOS

Agreed. Although, I didn’t mind it before.

Yep, same thing. This zerg fest is there because the frequency of the events offsets the DR/RNG.

If ANet, adjusts it, they will nerf the events, not make the mobs harder.

Remember, ANet’s motto -“We are obligated to use the nerf-hammer because we don’t want players to feel left out.”

And how on earth this wasn’t tested?

Use particular character, open chest, tick, next…

I feel sorry for you.

I think I just had a brain aneurysm.

Seriously… stop putting too much focus on doing the daily and watch how quickly it will be done. Even when focusing on doing it, it doesn’t take more than 1-2hrs.

/FF

RNG is RNG. Two days ago I salvaged two rares and got nothing. Yesterday salvaged one and got two ectos. Go figure…

IMO, the minimum return should be 1 ecto. ATM, you are better off selling on TP and buying ectos. This won’t be changed because ANet is making a profit.

@ Iures.2894

Let me rephrase. You should be able to plot a trend line (i.e. linear line of best fit), however this should not actually appear in the graph (i.e. straight line). Once again, economical data is based on a quasi-chaotic system. If you remove this from the equation then realisticly speaking you should get zero gradient, however this is not the case here, hence there is an underlining factor added to the gem/gold exchange which can be associated to manipulation.

This is really weird and almost too good to be true interms of it happening on a daily basis…

Just had two rares drop in 5 minutes and plenty of bags, whites and blues (also about 1/4 of trophies). I’m certain this is pertained to what zone/area you are in, what zone/area you have been to before, and player numbers in the area/zone. If the loot is distributed world wide then these factors definitely are part of the DR game.

Will update again when I can.

^ This. Legendary weapons should be another epic story/lore based goal. Not just an RNG-DR-GRINDFEST.

This IMO would set GW2 appart from all the other major MMOs.

Well looking at your setup I would suggest at least 500W PSU.

What are your ingame graphical settings? AA, vsync, etc.?

@ Iures.2894 & Iures.2894

The abnormality is actually observing the staight line graph. The economy is a quasi-chaotic system and one can plot a trendline to predict economical outcomes in the (near) future, however at no point should a simple trend like this line be observed from the data output, especially over such lenght of time. Furthermore, the market is never steady because variables fluctuate constantly.

Also, the gem/gold exchange ratio is exactly the same as converting real currency. The ratio increases as a country (which you are converting to their currency) becomes wealthier and thus inflate the price of living – and vice-versa.

Another thing. Many of the items bought with gems have static values, yet due to the exchange rate going up it becomes more difficult to acquire those general items. Many of these are not upper class (only for the rich) items.

Gem price is inflating, IMHO.

$750 is your budget? Hmmmm, you might want to go for a micro version. You normaly get two size variants of a motherboard, the normal and micro.

- Asus P8Z77-M-Pro ($128)
- Intel i5-3550 ($194)
- Asus GTX650Ti ($165)
- Kingston HyperX 8G Kit 1600mHz ($52)
- Corsair TX650 ($112)
- Thermaltake V6 ($75)

TOTAL – $726

Afcource this is just my opinion, however I ma from Australia so prices may differ slightly. Furthermore, this total is based on parts alone and you would need to put it together, but these days a 12yo can do it

My current dream machine (I’m from AUS):

- Intel i5-3570K ($227)
- Asus P8Z77-V-PRO ($215)
- Asus GTX680 ($559)
- Kingston Hyper-X 8GB (x2) 1600mHz ($99)
- Corsair HX750-V2 ($198)
- Thermaltake Chaser MK-1 ($158)
- OCZ Vector SSD ($275)
- Win7 Pro OEM ($136)
- Thermaltake FRIO OCK ($75)
- 24" Asus VE248H 2ms ($188)
- Logitech MK710 ($74)

TOTAL – $2204

PC RIG TOTAL – $1942

Went to Malchor’s Leap yesterday to get some wood and stone. Suddenly 7 events popped up in the zone. I thought, might as well do the daily. I was rummaging through areas I haven’t been to in a while. Ended up with 7 greens, over 10 crystals from mining, few bags that gave powerfull blood and 1 ancient bone, 4 cloth, 9 blues and 0 yellow/orange. After finishing my daily it went downhill.

This (DR) is too rnadom just to be omitted by changing zones. Things like events, solo/group tackling, players in zone and perhaps other aspects, IMO, are part of this DR system.

ANet, why can’t you specify what triggers DR? Are you afraid the general player population will try to exploit it? If this potential exploit is in line with playing the game as you intended us to do so (i.e. go out into the world and explore) then it would not harm the economy.

To be honest, I’m starting to feel like I am being bullied by this particular aspect of your game design. Your decision to implement DR is ruining my game experience. This is not why I, and presumigly many others, bought the game for.

Do others feel bullied by this? Do the players feel this is ruining their game experience?

Any 1-15lv zone that has events both on land and water is the best. Queensdale is most likely the most use area for doing dailies. Everything is pretty much bunched together.

However, my last daily, I have completed it on Malcho’r leap. 7 events spawned, which 4 I soloed and 1 in a group. The underwater was bit of a pain. At one point I went to get an orchi node and landed near risen with couple of turtles or what ever they were. But in doing that I managed to get 7 underwater kills. Then soloed a champion underwater thinggy lol.

Overall this was a nice daily and enjoyed it, rather than get it over and done with like most people want.

The more we can move away from the RNG the more enjoyable the “grind” will be, but then this wouldn’t be GW2.

GOOD LUCK using the computer if your GPU fails – this cpu has no onboard intel GPU.

I would have gone with the i5-3570K. It is one of the best CPUs allround.

What PSU you using?

Oakenharts in queensdale are the simple. They go on their back two feet and when about to land, you dodge.

There are plenty of places you can get dodge done. The problem is people don’t use it and prefer to spam attack/defense – i strongly suggest you learn to implement the dodge mechanic into your gameplay. For me it makes combos as an Ele more flowing.

Achievement points is a stat that determines how much of the game has been completed – i.e. doing all sort of things within the game.

In the future these points will be converted to laurels. ATM these things are sitting on my account doing nothing. I would prefer if I could use them – laurels.

I’ve sen those spawn in various locations on karkadoom island.

Oh, and whats up with that veteran DE karka – patrol the beach for karka one. That guy has an aggro equivalent to 1/5th of the map.

Iures.2894:

On several occasions I have observed the mystical plot based on ‘y=mx+c’. If this is not an indication of market manipulation then please correct me if I’m wrong

That’s. . .that’s just the standard formula for a line. . .

What in the world are you talking about?

Go to the gem/gold exchange rate on the TP. This is where i’ve seen this in several situations, and this is abnormal.

Don’t worry after 1hour DR kicks in. Just keep getting killed by theose kitten trees, trust me DR works on many levels…

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Death Reincarnated.3570:

The inflation on gold/gem is getting worse. The prices are constantly going up and the ratio between gold-to-gem and gem-to-gold is slowly moving appart.

Also I have, on several occasions, observed that mystical plot based on ‘y=mx+c’. If this is not an indication of market manipulation then please correct me if I’m wrong.

You’re wrong on two issues.

1) Inflation happens over time. The dollar in 1970 is not the same as a dollar in 1975, 1980, 1985, etc. It’s not getting worse, it’s just running it’s normal course.

2) There is no market manipulation.

0_o ???

1) Have you ever wondered what is causing the dollar value to change? One or several aspects of the economy get manipulated by individuals/groups and eventually, over time, the economy has to ‘adjust’, or as you said “…it’s just running it’s normal course.”.

2) Refer to 1)

Also, I’m still waiting on an awser to this – “On several occasions I have observed the mystical plot based on ‘y=mx+c’. If this is not an indication of market manipulation then please correct me if I’m wrong”

So please, anyone, prove me wrong this is not part of market manipulation.

Just to clarify what John’s post meant (see below)

John Smith.4610:

Remember that Sell orders != supply and buy order != demand

Not everyone who has a specific item will want to sell it – i.e. Sell orders != supply
Not every item that is bought is highly demanded – i.e. buy order != demand

In the general case and interms of numbers – sell order > supply & buy order < demand.

Furthermore, sell & buy orders are (should be) within the supply & demand numbers. If they are not then this causes inflation and possibly breakdown portion of the economy that is trading and involves that particular item.

I havent seen one key drop in fee weks now. Before that I used to get at least one every few days.

The inflation on gold/gem is getting worse. The prices are constantly going up and the ratio between gold-to-gem and gem-to-gold is slowly moving appart.

Also I have, on several occasions, observed that mystical plot based on ‘y=mx+c’. If this is not an indication of market manipulation then please correct me if I’m wrong.

Same. I used an entire sickle and got nothing extra out of it. It’s bugged and honestly would like a refund.

But IT IS possible to manipulate the market.

If one knows the chokepoint(s), one can manipulate the flow(s).

It’s all about knowing how to gain enough money to be on the chockepoints level, then by consistantly getting money from lower level trading, you can begin to influence the chockepoint, which is at the higher trading level, and thus eventually can control it.

There is alot of psychological games to played within the context of market/trading. One can get most profit if they can stay ahead of the game…it is like a chess game.