Showing Posts For morphemass.2850:

Too early to call Egg speculation a bust?

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

I’m currently restocking for Easter

Skill Point Price

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morphemass.2850

@morphemass, Don’t you think that this method can lead to an irrelevance in the value due to the diference between the buying/selling order than just the SP itself?

At the end of the day the question for me is “How do I create value from this resource?”. The value of the skill point (again to me) is merely a factor in the calculation. That value varies and if they were actually tradeable, I would expect the market to reflect that…

Skill Point Price

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morphemass.2850

I wrote a bit of code recently to work this out and the truth is the value varies quite a bit. This morning I could make 40s per skill point. This evening that’s down to 25s per skill point. That assumes buying everything off the TP using a buy order then selling everything via a sell order.

I’m going to put this into something web-based so that anyone can look at the info.

For what unjustified reason you mark the spread between raw materials at buying and product at selling as the result of skill points? Most products have a spread between raw at buying and product at selling prices, skill points have nothing to do with it. Skill points are next to worthless.

Current best (near guaranteed return) value of skill points as of writing is :

— Powerful Venom Sac —-—————————————————-
COST : 1g 09s 65c (91s 77c)
AVG RESULT VALUE: 1g 17s 60c (90s 12c)
AVG MAX PROFIT : 21s 96c
AVG PROFIT SP : 43s 92c
—————————————————————————————————

I’ve done this up-conversion in the past when I have a batch of skill points – buying at the lowest price and selling at the current highest is almost always viable. One can only predict an average return because the yield is between 5 and 12 and I probably calculate return on the low side since I use 6 as an average (the actual spread of returns seems to favor a low yield although the avg should be 8 )

So basically 100 skill points could be converted into 30-40 gold – that’s a LONG way short of being “worthless”.

EDIT: I see your point that it would make more sense as of writing to buy the Powerful Venom Sacs via a buy order and resell them due to the spread but this isn’t always the case – if you were to look at lodestones, quite often the spread between low and high is a couple of silvers for the lodestone. It could be argued though that the actual “value” should factor in the difference between the purchase price of the target conversion at he “buy” price and that of the source, in which case the value of a skill point is far lower that I’ve illustrated, an argument that I would not reject, although it should be noted that for many items buy orders are often unfulfilled or can take a significant amount of time to be filled.

(edited by morphemass.2850)

Skill Point Price

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

I wrote a bit of code recently to work this out and the truth is the value varies quite a bit. This morning I could make 40s per skill point. This evening that’s down to 25s per skill point. That assumes buying everything off the TP using a buy order then selling everything via a sell order.

I’m going to put this into something web-based so that anyone can look at the info.

Skill Point Price

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

In answer to the question though, I’ve been looking at this based on the value of up-converting items via the mystic forge. The sad truth is that its as low as 10s for mystic weapons (on average) and even via the current highest value transformation, 40s.

Now personally I value a skill point a lot more than this, but if they are tradeable then personally (again) would pay no more than 30s.

(edited by morphemass.2850)

Skill Point Price

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morphemass.2850

Ahhh I knew they were for sale somewhere – I’d forgotten where though. Can they be traded via the TP?

Math is an opinion on trading post

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

If you go into your sold items tab, what price does it say they sold for?

Bots: Hurtful or Helpful?

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Hurtful.
10.

I like to play in open-world content and unless bots are bringing down the price of precursors/exotic weapons, then it is going to take me MORE time to make enough money for these from farming…..hence rather than playing the game to earn money I’m forced to play the TP.

Anet need to redouble their efforts to prevent botting – it should not have become this bad again.

Magic find boosters

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

i stopped using MF gear and getting better items than with mf
in dung 4,5 yellow
and btw i got even exotic few times, and before that 0 with magic find gear

It’s called small sample size

Quite true but the problem is that in the experience of most people MF is worthless.

Now statistically speaking of course, it isn’t, but statistics tend not to be fun for a lot of people and that’s the problem with MF as it is at the moment. It fails to give a big enough bust for it to add to the gameplay experience and in fact many people think it detracts from it.

Magic find boosters

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morphemass.2850

I recently did some farming with a near max MF and a booster. I got 1 rare, 1 exotic. Exotic value < 1G :/

So even if they are functioning properly, given the old to gem rate they are essentially of zero value, mainly because the green tier of rarity has not managed to make it past vendor value.

Money gone, watch out!

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morphemass.2850

Actually I take back what I said – 2 weeks ago before the karka event there was a rollback which Anet didnt even acknowledge (I lost 2 hours character progress), it is possible that op was affected by this.

Money gone, watch out!

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morphemass.2850

Does it appear in the “items sold” tab?

It is possible you were hacked and they removed the most expensive items. While the TP has bugs that, contrary to Anets statements, do result in the loss of items, these tend to only happen when placing an item for sale as far as I’m aware.

The TP Trader Guide for Beginners

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morphemass.2850

A useful additional tip – when selling do not dump especially if you hold more than a stack of a given item. It avoids placing a ceiling on the current trading price and is both safer (reduced risk of lost listing fees if the market dives) and quicker (in terms of unloading 1 or more stack of an item) to sell in quantities < 100.

If I see a stack of 250+ at a given price I will ALWAYS undercut by 1c, as will many others. However if I see 1-200 of an item at a given price (or even a range) I look at what the highest price and quantity that I could sell at if someone were to buy a stack of 250 and place both quantity and price accordingly.

This usually takes 5 minutes more in terms of selling but if your moving higher priced stacks the difference in profit can be quite large (1G+)

Money gone, watch out!

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morphemass.2850

Your story doesn’t really add up. You GET a legendary /duskand then sell it so that one day you can afford one? You had dawn on the TP and it just vanished?

Anyways, empty your trade queue and collect all the items – the money is probably there.

Got my eggs for the new Wintersday recipes

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morphemass.2850

I’ve gone for eggs, mint and saffron….and one people seem to have missed “slab of poultry meat”. Turkey leftovers anyone?

Got my eggs for the new Wintersday recipes

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morphemass.2850

I’m cynical, so I’m gonna say you made this thread to try to drive up the price of eggs.

These forums have another use?

Driving up the price of chocolate?

Loot Drop Rate Bug

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

I have the feeling the the boundaries at which magic find have an effect have been changed – I got a rare and exotic in 1 hours open world grawl farming today with full MF gear and a booster. REQUIRING a booster to get decent drops is just wrong…

How Effective is MF gear

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

That’s an interesting approach to looking at the value of MF gear (or lack of).

I think the problem with MF is that you need an incredibly high MF for it make a real difference (i.e. convert green → yellow, yellow → orange) and the only way you can get high enough is to use the boosters. Even then I find the results lackluster compared to when an average MF would result in 3-5 rares an hour…

Mystic clovers...

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Another idea is to use crafting – its possible to do a few professions quite cheaply and if you have mats in the bank, essentially “free”. I made about 30 skill points in a few hours doing this.

PSA: Forging green items is profitable

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Except the “upconvert” rate of the mystic forge appears to be about 15%-18% at the moment. Hence at 8s a pop it costs over 40s to create one rare on average.

I tried this myself long ago and had a good run of luck and made a profit – then I had a run of 18 then a run of 30 without a rare. RNG is what it is but the average return suggests that this is just not viable.

Where did all these armored scales come from?

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morphemass.2850

I vote for bots too. They are far less noticeable underwater hence less likely to be reported.

What is your gold per hour, and how?

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Open Karka Chest

Got Dusk and Dawn 500g Profit in 1sec yeeeaaaah^^

Gratz jackpot lol.

On a related note – watch T6 mats this weekend. There is one with < 1000 supply on the TP which will only need 4 people to clear out….

No, I’m not going to make a fortune off that because I missed the early boat, but being observant of potential shortages is a good strategy to earn a little cash from the TP.

precursor STILL too expensive

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

There should be another wave of cheap precursors soon both from the Christmas ebents and the karka reward fix. after this the scavenger hunt will be implimented which should serve to bring prices crashing down. in other words, this .is now a waiting game. relax you will have one eventually

Different offers for different languages

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morphemass.2850

Ahhhh indeed, i see your point now. That is….interesting…

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

The thread is entitled “Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort”.

Yes, legendaries are a grind; yes, the value of all the materials involved in making one is nearly or over 1000 gold and this is a LOT; yes, certain parts of the process need to be addressed…..

But the fact is that legendaries are NOT unobtainable, they just require a lot of effort to obtain and the original premise of this topic is deeply flawed. Make the points regarding grind and fun-factor in other threads and people will probably agree; doing so in this thread though devalues your arguments.

BTW I finally finished my mystic clovers last night (after 248 shards) and the PRIMARY reason it took me so long was lack of skill points. Not gold – skill points. My next hurdle is karma of which I’m 100K short despite having done dailies everyday for the last 2 months, WvW daily etc.

While lots of people are complaining about the gold cost, I bet very few of them have the 450 skill points and 1.1 million karma required – and when there are people in that position I’m reasonably certain that the gold cost will be the last of their problems.

(EDIT: In fact I earned well over 200 gold in the process of acquiring those skill points AND a great number of T6 mats.)

(edited by morphemass.2850)

Different offers for different languages

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morphemass.2850

Sorry if I am being stupid but those screenshots show “buy it now” and “offers” screens – those are two different things…..

Did you mean to post these because they are not illustrative of the problem you are suggesting….

Mystic clovers...

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

248 shards used for 77 clovers (1 recipe) with a very poor success rate (@28%) until my last 20 shards where I got my final 15 clovers.

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

The whining will continue forever.

The worst thing about this thread is that it is so general in its complaints that it detracts from the parts that ARE a real issue. Some precursors are overpriced and unreachable for the majority. Some components are overpriced and unreasonable to farm and thus are unreachable for the majority.

Legendaries though, in general are quite obtainable for the majority over the course of normal play. The problem is that few people want the cheaper ones though and so choose to generalize.

Doing so is unlikely cause Anet to view the real issues with any sympathy and eventually all such complaints will just be dismissed as “whining”.

What is your gold per hr, and how? Post nerfs

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morphemass.2850

Still about the same – I do some farming, mystic forging, flipping and power trading. A good day might bring in 50G (G per hour makes little sense), a bad day I might be down the same (the weekend drop in prices hurt ).

Farming is the LEAST profitable though but I’ve always found it so.

Loot Drop Rate Bug

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Open world PvE gets less and less fun.

If I’m lucky, in a full MR set I get 1 rare an hour – this used to be 3-5 rares. I get perhaps an exotic once a month.

I’ve yet to have a veteran or champion mob drop anything better than a green.

WvW is a joke for loot – 90% of the time I’ll get a spike (WvW loot from players really needs to be 10% better than present to make up for the reduced number of kills compared to PvE).

This really does need to be addressed.

All areas completed, yet missing points

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Just because you have found all achievement areas doesn’t mean that you have 100% map completed all zones. I had to port around each map to find the 1 poi I was missing.

Endless Halloween Tonic on TP

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morphemass.2850

Sadly it seems that any tonics obtained before the patch are still account/soul bound even though the tooltip no longer shows that they are. Any tonics obtained now from trick or treat bags seem to be sellable.

This seems bugged to me….

Stealth bugs (introduced in Lost Shores)

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Another bug is that shadow refuge fails to stealth the caster quite often in WvW. I’m not sure if its due to members of the opposing team and/or their pets counting towards the limit but its seriously annoying…

precursor STILL too expensive

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Precursors are NOT expensive. Certain precursors are expensive i.e. dusk, dawn, legend, spark etc. Others are “junk” e.g. venom and sell for marginally more than other exotics.

The solution would be to have the mystic forge (or loot drop) have given a precursor type weapon which could be traded in for the one the one that people want, thus normalizing the price of precursors. Sadly we see a market where a handful of weapons are causing outrage as to the price….

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

I must express this concern as well. I WANTED to farm legendary. But every day it gets more expensive. I get 23g (tops, on a very good day), a day. But sometimes Some mats (250 fold) get already in total that much more expensive in a few days. Meaning I farmed for nothing. That i haven’t made progress. And without progress, I won’t even start on it.

Mats actually dropped in price over the weekend. At 23G a day though it would take 10 days to afford a precursor, 10 days to obtain most T6 mats, 10 days to buy all the lodestones, 5 for the ectos and 5 for the runestones…..and you want it easier?

Whilst I agree with the points made about legendaries being a grind, I can think of many other games where end games items would take significantly longer than that.

What is your gold per hour, and how?

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morphemass.2850

So who was the reason eggs made me a nice pile of coin last week? Was that you too Logun?

That was probably me given that I anticipate a frenzy as wintersday approaches.

That said, I’ve seen about 20 people speculating on eggs, many of which seem to have dumped them @ the 40c mark. Personally though I think that given that eggs have been up and down like yo-yo’s for quite some time, they are probably going to double or triple in price this week for a brief period, however I wouldn’t bet the farm on being able to sell any specific volume at the peak.

Personally I’m looking forward to them being cheap post holidays given that they should be in demand again at Easter. 40c eggs may seem cheap then

(edited by morphemass.2850)

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Ectos, acquired via doing dungeons and/or salvaging rares/exotics.

*T6 mats, acquired during “normal” play, legendary creation, or mystic forging. *

You seem quite happy to ignore these points….

Hypothetical Question

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

@OP. You would be surprised at the inventory that speculators hold of “rare” items.

Take a look at the jakalope mini – I’d estimate that the early speculator on that holds 20-50 of those (given that the tactic has been employed by a certain someone in guildwars 1 to create artificial scarcity).

So basically the effect would be to briefly rise the price on a “rare” item but it would rapidly normalize due to existing inventories. This can only be effective with VERY low supply items of which exotic minis and precursors are a prime example and we have seen with the later that Anet will happily flood the market to solve limited supply problems if the community creates enough fuss

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

It could have just been so much more engaging and interesting, and actually be epic.

On that I will certainly agree

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

So did everyone just ignore that OP dislikes how ridiculous it is when you compare how much it costs to get a legendary now vs earlier, and instead chose to attack him on not wanting to farm?

Thank you

No, no one ignored the ops point. I’ve just been pointing out that the costs are implicitly tied to how much one “farms” and also pointed out that a large number of the components are actually acquired during “normal” play. Again :

- Ectos, acquired via doing dungeons and/or salvaging rares/exotics.
- T6 mats, acquired during “normal” play, legendary creation, or mystic forging.
- Lodestones/Silver doubloons etc – agreed that these ARE too dependent on the TP/farming.

The TP value of these components doesn’t really enter into it because you don’t HAVE to buy them from the TP apart from the latter. Again, just because you cant obtain a legendary NOW doesn’t mean that you wont be able to afford one later so this really comes down to “I want it now”. Sorry.

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Time != Effort, Grind != Fun.

Whilst I agree with you on this point, it is VERY difficult for game designers to create solutions which do not require time and grind in accomplishing “end game goals”. In fact if one introduces that oft lamented missing element skill, it is then only a matter of time before your audience becomes divided into 2 factions – those that find things too easy and those who find things too hard (look at the clock tower as an example of the later).

I actually believe that apart from the precursor and lodestones, anet have come up with a reasonably balanced solution and most of the complaints are from people who want an easy route. Lets just look at T6 mats:

1) @10-20% of T6 mats will be made during the crafting of the gift of fortune.
2) @10%-20% of mats will be acquired during “normal” play as drops from mobs or within the various bags that drop.
3) T6 mats can be made cheaply via upconverting T5 mats in the mystic forge. Doing it this way means that they are available for roughly 1/2 their cost of that on the trading post.

That’s a reasonably wide selection of ways of acquiring them, none of which require the trading post or grinding (I had 2 stacks of most T5 mats by 80 which yielded about 70 of each T6 mat – I was over half way through my T6 mats JUST by normal play).

Anyone complaining about the price of T6 mats is basically saying “I want my legendary NOW rather than later and I am annoyed because the trading post no longer offers me this shortcut”.

Legendaries with unbalanced difficulties

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Sorry, maybe this is stupid but…shouldnt pirates, about lvl 30 or so, drop silver doubloons?

Who are these people?

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

@OP: I know, it drives me insane seeing people more or less crash a particular line of profit. OFTEN what happens with large drops though is that someone is fullfilling a buy order and the buyer pulls the order which causes the sellers items to be placed on sale at the buyers price. A very annoying “feature”.

I have like 6 pages of rare armor pieces posted and prices have dropped around 5 silver more or less. I guess that’s because of the ecto prices going down a bit and people flipping them, ordering and reselling. Should I repost my items? :S

I’m in a similar situation but with several hundred items – the last time the market dropped I pulled and reposted them with a 5% loss (plus the drop in price). This time I’m just leaving them since in the longer term there will probably be a re-upsurge (it may be weeks, may be months). For 5 items though….yeah I would repost.

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

And if you are upset about lodestones, go for a legendary that doesnt require them! There are plenty of legendaries that need no lodestones at all.
God you ppl want everything on a silver platter.

The complaints re lodestones I think is legitimate – if someone wants to put the effort in for legendary X, why should they have to work 50% more than people who want legendary Y? And before someone says, “some are better than others”, compare Bifrost and Twilight/Sunrise ~ dyes vs lodestones, yet both very desirable weapons.

While I disagree with the OP, there is still work to do on making legendaries more equal both in terms of acquisition and appearance.

Nov. 30 at Noon Pacific?

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

I suspect that this is something that would show up better in a “T6 index” given that it looks like the bots are not farming bloods. http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/24289 – Scales, ectos and several other T6 items have seen similar spikes in supply though.

I honestly cannot see speculation accounting for the quantity of supply and it is in speculators interest to maintain a high price, not to drop it.

Nov. 30 at Noon Pacific?

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

Speculators cashing out and/or bots getting back on their feet.

I just noticed a post on Reddit pointing out these market shifts whilst also providing detail on the “black market” gold exchange rate (FYI http://www.guildwarstrade.com/blackmarket) which does seem to suggest that indeed, the bots are back.

I wonder how quickly these will be dealt with….the crash in price of armored scale suggests that they are hunting in quite a specific area too….

Nov. 30 at Noon Pacific?

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morphemass.2850

Aye I can see the supply having increased (on gw2spidy) but from my farming I haven’t seen an increase in the drop rate hence one cant help but wonder where this supply has appeared from. And its not just a small increase in supply, for example ecto volumes have tripled!

Very, very curious

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

I knew 2 months ago I wouldn’t get/try for a Legendary. Now with the current market status I will never craft an Exotic Skin… Is this fun?

Why not craft an exotic skin? Are you honestly trying to say you cant obtain a few ectos (despite having the option to get them from dungeons), mine a few orichalcum nodes and ancient woods and get 15 T6 mats?

Seriously there ARE legitimate issues with legendaries (precursors, lodestone, RNG) but this seems like complaining for complainings sake.

Legendaries unreachable, regardless of effort

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

I have to disagree.

I’ve been spending @1 hour a day farming trolls for powerful blood. I average (estimate) @5 blood over that hour. I also get vicious claws and fangs (which I sell since I’ve a stack of those already) so I also make 1-2G over that hour.

Anyways my point is that YES its a chore to farm everything (especially given that DR means one must change camps periodically) but in 50 hours of farming I could see someone having a stack (or significant parts) of 3 of the T6 mats and there are other camps which would yield scales, totems etc. Hardly unreachable and you also gain a few from the mystic clover recipe.

Lodestones I agree are not at the point they need to be, even with the changes to dungeons dropping cores, however again, do the dungeon that drops the core that you want – you will make progress.

Ecto’s … well if you’re lucky (and this needs to change) the dungeon that you are farming for lodestones will also have lvl 70+ rare armor. Use your tokens to buy and salvage these for ectos’.

The ONLY parts of a legendary that are “difficult” are the precursor, lodestones and depending on dungeon, ecto’s and even these are far from “unreachable” – yes some improvements are needed BUT these are supposed to be difficult to obtain skins and part of that should be going out and farming them – just be thankful that the T6 mats arent account bound!

Nov. 30 at Noon Pacific?

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Posted by: morphemass.2850

morphemass.2850

I’ve been wondering this too, I cant see anything concrete – from the farming I’ve been doing T6 mats, rares & dyes don’t seem to have suddenly seen an increased drop rate, hence either we’re seeing more players proving increased supply OR a decrease in demand.

Speculation :

- any big game launches that may have drawn away the power-traders or hardcore players?
- Teleport hack/botting patched?
- Another wave of bot bans affecting power-trader bots?
- Weekend effect?

If I had to pick one I would say that some of the trader bots have gone given that for the first time in a while I’ve been able to place buy orders and NOT been outbid within 15 minutes and the “1 item” flipper bids, while they appear, no longer seem to be in permanent place. Also the rise in mithril prices suggests either increased demand or reduced supply….

I’d be interested in any insight since one NEVER seems to quite know what the GW2 market will do…